After Ozzy’s eerily familiar implosion last week (which was almost a carbon copy of his blindside in S16: Micronesia – also while holding an Idol), there wasn’t really much worth investigating in my rewatch. But there were two nuggets worth mentioning in this week’s intro.

In a secret scene, when the two groups headed for separate camps, both were given a jar of rice and a pot. Jonathan took full advantage of this, helping himself to a scoop full of rice every time he showed up. He even told both camps he was doing it. The players were helpless to even vent about his rice hoarding since Jonathan held so much power. But the cockiness he showed could come back to hurt him. Emily and Devens talked about how much they wished they could vote Jonathan out, Devens even sarcastically calling Jonathan the “King of the World.” Ozzy also commented on Jonathan’s greed as he happily ate some of their rice every time he entered their camp too. Jonathan sent two jurors out of the game resenting him. That’s a bad look.

I mentioned the other observation I had in last week’s column, but I want to expand on it a little. This was the chat between Jonathan and Joe when Jonathan pitched the “blindside Ozzy” plan. Joe: “We gotta tell Rizo.” Jonathan: “No, Aubry, you and me.” Joe: “But we need Rizo later for a number dude, later. I don’t want to burn him.” This was eerily similar to when Cirie pitched Rizo on booting Coach and Chrissy. Rizo insisted they include Joe, saying, “But to do this, we need Joe. We can’t blindside Joe because then he won’t be with us.” In confessional, Rizo added: “I don’t want to make this move without Joe because I need Joe to have my back.” Joe certainly had Rizo’s back at this last vote.

Joe and Rizo have voted together four times in a row now. They only differed at the Dee boot when Joe reluctantly agreed to vote for Tiffany in Coach’s split vote plan. Do Rizo and Joe have had a closer partnership than we’ve been shown? I think it’s very possible. They’d be sure to have all the information from both opposing alliances and the “middle people” too. What if Rizo and Joe are the ones who take Cirie out? That could change the jury profile for both of them. It might explain why Rizo cut ties with Ozzy. If Joe and Rizo end up in the finals with rice hoarder Jonathan, could we actually see a win for Rizo? If Joe piles up the Immunity wins, we know he’ll have Coach in his corner. When Coach is on a jury, he has always voted for whoever he thinks did the best in challenges (J.T.in S18: Tocantins and Parvati in S20: Heroes vs Villains).

But if this partnership(?) has a significant impact on how the season plays out, I think we’d have seen more of it by now. I don’t think Rizo or Joe have a realistic chance of winning because they’re both perceived by the present jurors as followers. They need a frontrunner to kill their own game. Just the same, I can’t resist the temptation of labeling this a Goat Alliance.

How is Cirie gonna adjust to losing Ozzy? What does Devens do now that he doesn’t have an Idol? Has Tiffany quietly turned herself into a favorite? How does Aubry try to own the Ozzy boot without setting herself up to be the next boot?

Let’s find out.

And away we go…

---

Devens: “I do love y’all.” Cirie: “With that and $2 I can get a bag of chips.” I love Cirie.

Rizo immediately tells Cirie how Ozzy hurt her game. Smart move by Rizo.

Remember what I said after Episode 10 about choosing your partners wisely? Cirie chose a bad partner in Ozzy, who did huge damage to her game. But I will say without the ridiculous “Power Broker” Advantage, Cirie is probably able to set Ozzy straight. At a minimum, she talks him into playing his Idol.

Cirie in confessional “What is wrong with you? I thought you had two brain cells to rub together. I wouldn’t have tied my cart to a fucking idiot. What did you do that for?” Cirie said it better than I did.

Then Devens gives Jonathan credit for booting Ozzy, and Aubry doesn’t look like she’s happy about that. If she makes it to the end, she’s gonna have trouble owning the Ozzy boot. She’s repeating the mistake she made in S32: Kaoh Rong.

And in confessional, Aubry says she’s pissed off about it. She wants every threat gone. But who does SHE consider the biggest threat? If she’s smart (and I know she is), she’ll take aim at Cirie first, then Devens.

Right on cue, Devens goes Idol hunting ... by the light of the camera crews.

Is Joe really comforting Devens as he worries about his fate, or is it just Joe’s turn to keep an eye on him?

Ahh, the wobbly table spelling challenge. They used this in S27: Blood vs. Water, S29: San Juan del Sur, S32: Kaoh Rong, S34: Game Changers, S40: Winners at War, and Survivor 42, 47 and 48. I think Rizo is the only one who hasn’t done this challenge before. Joe won it in S48.

There sure are a lot of challenges that have been previously won by a Probst Alpha Male favorite this season. Hmmm....

Devens is really cracking under the pressure. He keeps dropping his stack with only two letters.

Cirie grabs the wrong letter when she has two blocks left?

Oops, it doesn’t matter. She dropped her stack.

Joe wins Immunity (that’s three for him) and picks Cirie and Rizo to join him. Maybe there’s legs to this Joe/Rizo partnership after all. But that gives Devens more time to find an Idol.

Joe’s three Immunity wins has locked down Coach’s vote if he makes it to the end. He won’t be a zero-vote finalist.

Cirie pitches Devens, but I think the longer Devens hangs around, the safer she is.

Jonathan licks the jar of rice. That’s just gross. He hasn’t learned his lesson about messing with people’s food. He’s losing jury votes and doesn’t know it.

But Tiffany is taking dead aim at Rizo and his Idol. Once again, I think Cirie will make the call on this vote.

Aubry: “The old timers might not like giving two million dollars to a kid.” I agree, Aubry. That’s part of why I think Rizo is a goat. In S21, juror Jane refused to vote for 21-year old Fabio because she thought he’d blow the money. She was right. He was on TMZ six months later saying the money was gone. He blew it on things like hiring a Limo to drive him home after he got arrested for pubic intoxication.

And Jonathan wants to have Cirie’s approval first. Cirie has been in total control of this season. I think Devens is a goner, but Rizo’s Idol could leave too. Aubry and Cirie will vote for Devens for sure.

Wow, a Tribal Council at 8:30? Two more people are leaving tonight. I thought they’d save that for the finale.

Rizo gets flak for leaving so much food behind at the auction. That was in a secret scene earlier this season. But it also made it into the broadcast. Is that significant?

Rizo: “I don’t want to be Boo Boo the fool.” Rizo knows his Survivor history. He’s quoting Cydney from S32: Kaoh Rong.

Devens talking about the joy of seeing the stars feels like his exit speech a la Ozzy and Colby.

Rizo holds on to his Idol??? I say “Bye Rizo.”

Devens plays his Shot in the Dark.

“Not Safe.” Now, it depends on how the votes are split.

No votes shown for Rizo. That means it was unanimous against Devens. Cirie strikes again.

That might have been a mistake by Cirie. Now she’s likely to get votes because they can’t get Rizo because of his Idol.

Aubry is worried about Tiffany now? That could be the biggest break Cirie could want.

Aubry keeps saying Michele was so loved in Kaoh Rong. Sorry Aubry, but now I’m compelled to provide juror quotes from that season.

Scot: "Michele, I had no respect for her game early. I thought she was just a bump on a log and a coattail rider.”

Julia: "The beginning of her game was kind of weak and she was being dragged along quite a bit, but she did turn it around.”

Jason: “She stayed very loyal to her team even when we said it was stupid."

Cydney: “I don’t need to hear much from Michele. She said all she had to say at the last Tribal – she didn’t write my name down.”

Debbie is really the only one who based her vote on Michele’s likability.

And those who voted for Aubry?

Nick: “Even if she (Michele) was a follower, she was following correctly.”

Joe: “I know the least about Michele, but I’ve learned she’s one hell of an athlete, who has won four challenges.”

The greater insight comes from what the five who voted for Michele said about Aubry.

Scot: “Aubry permanently lost my trust and respect at the next vote. The original plan was to vote Peter, but Joe voted Julia, and Aubry wrote Julia’s name then crossed it out and voted for Peter… every decision she made seemed to be fear-based and reactive.”

Julia: “That night she started sucking up to me, saying ‘I really didn’t mean to write your name down.’ But you did. I forgave her and gave her another chance and she was very shady towards me. I had the hardest time connecting with her. We just didn’t click at all.”

Jason: “I wouldn’t vote Aubry, she has no shot. She’ll get two, maybe three votes. She played a horrible game, a game of fear. Every move she made was fear-based. She did nothing to stand out, all she did was carry Joe.”

Debbie: “Aubry? I’m having a hard time finding a reason to give her a million dollars ... I realize this is a game where some people will slit their grandmother’s throat to win. I’d never vote for them. If you’re willing to throw anyone under the bus to further your game, I think that’s a trait you’ll use in your real life. And Aubry had no problem throwing anybody under the bus. She said she’d never vote for me. Et tu, bruté?”

Cydney: “I want to know what the plans were from Aubry – for the very last Tribal when I was there. I want to know if it was always her plan to vote me out. I’d have more respect for the decision then.”

Sorry, I just don’t see any vote except Debbie’s was based on Michele’s likability, and Debbie was clearly furious at Aubry. Michele got votes because 5 jurors disliked Aubry and Tai. Michele was the only option left. It’s 100% Aubry and Tai’s fault for making those jurors angry or bitter. But I’ll never buy that Michele played a great social game or made any “big moves” at the end. None of the reasons she got to the end were the result of anything intentional on her part.

End of rant.

Another massive obstacle course. I liked those tubular see-saw thingies the first time I saw it.

The puzzle word is “Inconceivable?” I suddenly have the urge to watch “The Princess Bride” again.

Joe: “I don’t know how to spell it.” Jonathan “I don’t either.” Me ”Ha, ha ha ha.”

In S48, the word Joe had to spell was “Unforgettable.” He called Probst to check his puzzle which read “gotfunbetrale.” Joe actually thought that was a word.

Why is Aubry helping Joe with his spelling???

Why is Rizo helping Jonathan with his puzzle???

Tiffany wins it, and I’m glad she did. Aubry and Rizo don’t deserve to win the game after this move.

What’s the smartest move for Cirie? I think she should remove Jonathan or Joe. You don’t want an “honor and integrity” member in the finals. There’s too many of them on the Jury.

Sia wants the fans to give away her money this season? That’s easy money for Cirie. The only other player with a shot might be Christian.

Aubry: “I was so annoyed with myself that I didn’t focus on my puzzle ... I probably could have beaten Tiffany.” Then why the hell were you trying to help Joe???

Aubry telling Rizo she wants Cirie gone makes me think Rizo will play his Idol for Cirie and boot Aubry.

Cirie knows what’s up and immediately brings Tiffany in on the plan.

I LOVE how Cirie just sat back and waited for Jonathan to bring up Aubry’s name.

The smart move is to remove Cirie. But who’s to say Joe and Jonathan will make the smart move?

Probst “Is anybody shocked they’re still in the game?” Everybody raises their hands. It would be stupid not to.

Aubry looks nervous. Cirie is stone-faced.

Rizo holds his Idol again.

Cirie is gone. I knew it when her second vote came up. Damn.

Dee and Ozzy sure look upset about it. Cirie had their votes for sure.

As always, Cirie’s exit is nothing but classy. So much for having an upper-tier winner for this season. While I don’t agree with Aubry that Cirie is the best Survivor player ever (she’s #6 for me), she’s easily the best manipulator the game has ever seen, and it isn’t close.

---

Recap

Like the overwhelming majority of the Survivor fandom, losing Cirie makes me much less excited about next week’s finale. Nobody played better than Cirie this season. I credited her with manipulating seven players (Savannah, Colby, Chrissy, Coach, Stephenie, Emily and Devens) out of the game. I gave her half credit for removing Christian too. The next closest was Christian who had a hand in booting Mike White and half credit each for Jenna and Genevieve.

In preseason, I said Cirie’s consistent flaw was a failure to have a #1 ride or die partner. She addressed that this season by having TWO #1s, but Ozzy’s bonehead move (a top 10 bonehead move to me) damaged her game, then Rizo bailed out on her. I don’t think it was reasonable to expect her to see either of those events happening. Hindisght being 20/20, her chances might have been better if she’d stuck with Christian, Devens and Emily. But she’d have been no better than #3 in that group. Yeah, Ozzy really killed Cirie’s game.

I have always been lousy at handicapping a jury, but I think if Joe or Jonathan reaches the end without the other one there, they’ll have strong support from jurors Coach, Chrissy and maybe Stephenie (she’s pissed off at Joe). They’ll also have a good shot at each other’s vote.

But with Ozzy and Cirie’s departures, the “honor and integrity” jurors probably won’t be able to swing a majority. Dee, Christian, Emily, Devens and Cirie aren’t gonna reward an “honor and integrity” game. So, I’ll say Jonathan and Joe have no shot now, especially since they can’t take credit for removing Cirie. I’m certain Devens won’t vote for Joe or Jonathan. He fought with both of them. He should be able to influence Emily’s vote too.

So, who’s the favorite between Aubry, Tiffany and Rizo?

Aubry made a bad call in prioritizing Tiffany over Cirie. If not for Tiffany’s Immunity win, Aubry is going after the wrong player. And it was ridiculous to spend time trying to help Joe win the next Immunity Challenge. What was Aubry thinking?

I suppose if Tiffany wears the necklace again, she’s got a shot at Coach’s vote. Tiffany had better relationships with Cirie, Ozzy, Rizo and Dee. Aubry got close to Coach, Ozzy and Devens. This is a tough call, and I’m not prepared to make it yet. I still have to mourn Cirie.

I will say these players aren’t giving two million bucks to Rizo. I think this season is coming down to Aubry or Tiffany. Keep in mind, Cirie is by far the most persuasive juror too.

What I don’t know is how Jonathan or Joe would vote if they end up on the Jury. Joe has now won seven Immunity Challenges. He holds third place.

Oh well. Even though we’ve seen her play so many times, Survivor is so much better to watch when Cirie is in the game.

I suppose I could get behind an Aubry win. I just wish she’d have played it smarter at these last two votes.

What do you think? Did Cirie have a way out of this vote? Did Ozzy really kill her game, or was Tiffany’s Immunity win the death blow. Did Rizo make the right call in voting for Cirie? Are Joe, Jonathan and Rizo all drawing dead now? Is their only chance of winning if they put both Aubry and Tiffany on the Jury? Let me know in the comments.