Ok, the Jimmy Fallon “One in the Urn” twist sucked. Any twist that forces a player to vote for themselves is just plain stupid. The downside of this twist overwhelmingly outweighed the upside of merely getting an Extra Vote. But let’s be real. The Jimmy Fallon twist is NOT why Christian got voted out.

I’m of the firm belief that 90% of players who get voted out did something to contribute to their own demise. Christian made a few mistakes long before he got on the boat.

One of the most important rules every player needs to follow on Survivor is choose your partners wisely. Christian didn’t pick bad partners, but when he aligned with Devens and Emily, he picked partners with a good potential to hurt his game. Emily’s tendency to blurt out information has been causing headaches for Christian all season. A better partner wouldn’t create the need for him to do so much damage control, sometimes on the spot. But the biggest damage was done by Devens.

When Devens made his flashy Idol grab at Tribal Council, it immediately launched Devens to the top of the hitlist. Ozzy put it perfectly the next morning when talking to Cirie and Joe, saying “Devens pulling his shenanigans was amazing. Now he has an Idol and we’re gonna have to put votes on him.” When someone has an Idol, the best strategy to beat it is by splitting votes between the Idol holder and their closest partner. This lifted Christian to #2 on the hitlist.

It’s always dangerous to align with a player who makes others want to vote them out. Even if that player turns themselves into the ultimate goat, nobody wants the goat’s partner in the finals with them. We’ve seen this over and over in Survivor history. In S2: The Australian Outback, Amber attached herself to the volatile Jerri. Amber’s game effectively ended when her tribe got tired of Jerri and voted her out. In S12: Panama - Exile Island, Shane told Cirie he wanted to sit next to the annoying Courtney Marit in the finals. Cirie wanted that seat, so she got rid of Courtney.

In S21: Nicaragua, Brenda and Sash aligned with the human trainwreck named NaOnka, who fought with almost everyone. When NaOnka got caught stealing the tribe’s food and other supplies, they should have replaced her with someone more dependable, but they stuck with NaOnka. Brenda’s game ended when Holly convinced NaOnka to flip. Then later, NaOnka quit (and took Purple Kelly with her), which decimated Sash’s alliance. Brenda picked better partners when she returned to play in S26: Caramoan. Nobody kills their alliance partners like Abi-Maria. Her unpredictable temper killed the game for her partners RC, Pete and Artis in S25: Philippines, and Ciera, Kass and Kelley Wentworth in S31: Cambodia (although Wentworth’s Idols helped her escape total destruction).

After Dee’s brilliant win in S45, I agonized over deciding who’d played a better rookie game between Dee and Kim Spradlin. Ultimately, I decided Dee prevailed because she chose more dependable partners. In S24: One World, Kim put zero thought into her alliance. She partnered up with Sabrina, Chelsea, Alicia and Kat while walking to camp on day 1 purely because the other women were several yards away from them. Chelsea, Kat and Alicia all unintentionally put speed bumps in Kim’s path to the finals. Kim made her game more difficult. She displayed great talent in mitigating the damage those three created, but Dee made sure she didn’t have to deal with those problems by avoiding Sifu, J.Maya, and Emily.

Devens’ actions didn’t end Christian’s game, but they raised Christian’s profile for sure. Christian also shot off a toe when he volunteered to give his Shot in the Dark to Jonathan. That’s what got Jonathan thinking of booting Christian instead, as he confirmed in his confessional, saying “We have this glaring target on Devens, but if Christian gives me his Shot In The Dark like he said he would, then I’d consider voting for Christian 100%.”

Christian had no reasonable way of knowing how close Cirie, Ozzy and Rizo are. I can’t fault him for that even though targeting Ozzy really was the death blow to his game. That trio was simply outplaying him. But Christian DID know how much Devens likes to make a show out of Tribal Council. He could have seen that coming and been prepared to deflect the target to someone else (Emily, Tiffany, Aubry)? If Christian has people pointing at one of them, there’s no need to create a reason for people to go after Ozzy. After all, he knew Jonathan thought Ozzy was working with him. Why would Jonathan want Ozzy gone over Aubry, Emily or Tiffany?

Aubry recognized the danger in being associated with Devens and took immediate steps to distance herself from him. First, she played the Idol because everyone believed Devens gave it to her. Then she led Jonathan to believe she’d vote against Devens. Maybe that’s what Christian should have done.

That being said, what are the options for Emily and Devens now? Devens has to continue bluffing with his phony Idol, but he can also look for another one (maybe Aubry’s will return)? Does this make Emily the new default victim? Will she tell everyone Devens’ Idol is a phony to take the heat off of herself? I think that’s very likely. If she does, will anybody believe her? She hasn’t been able to convince anyone to do much anything this season. One thing seems certain. Whoever Cirie wants gone is probably getting snuffed tonight. Let’s find out.

And away we go…

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The “Previously on” is all about Devens’ fake Idol play. I’ll say it again. Emily is gonna tell someone his Idol is a phony. I see the vote split between Devens and Emily already.

Emily: “I’ve never been on the wrong side of a vote before in Survivor.” First of all, you’re wrong. When Dee voted you out in Survivor 45, you voted for Julie. Second of all, saying that out loud to people who HAVE been on the wrong side of a vote can piss them off. You come off as cocky.

I don’t blame Ozzy for wanting to twist the knife into Devens and Emily for going after him, but that’s a bad look to everyone else left in the game. He comes off as a gloating winner. Didn’t people just hate that about Coach a couple of days ago?

Aubry is right. Even though there are 10 people left, with all the multi-player eliminations this season, it feels more like a final 7 vote. And they still don’t know if there will be a final 4 fire challenge.

Devens tells everyone his Idol was a phony. When Genevieve did that with Teeny in S47, I called it a bonehead move. I see no reason not to say the same thing about this one, whether or not he leaves tonight. What else is keeping him in this game?

And right on cue, Joe is asking Ozzy to boot either Devens or Emily.

We get a recap of previous Survivor Auctions. But this season there’s no scramble for money in the jungle? I actually miss that. It was fun watching Bruce (S45) and Andy (S47) end up with little or no money.

Ok, it’s 8:15. Let’s see if MrBeast gets more screen time than Zac Brown.

Probst says, “Every item is comfort, chaos or both”? If I’m playing, I’m not bidding on anything. Why take the risk? Especially after seeing what happened to Christian?

Emily buys a milkshake for $100. I want some chaos. Her loose lips means she deserves it, especially after mocking Christian. Dammit, nothing. Last time Emily got something at the Auction, she twerked.

Aubry eats two grubs so Rizo can get some cookies. Did she just buy an ally?

I can’t help but notice Cirie, Joe, Stephenie and Tiffany haven’t bid on anything. Hmm … zero time for MrBeast so far.

Jonathan has to eat a sea slug? Yep, buying stuff here has more downside than upside.

Damn, there’s a lot of food going around now. Maybe buying something wasn’t that bad. I stand corrected.

Everybody but Joe has bought something. Is he saving his money for an Idol?

Letters from home is the “biggest comfort?” I guess so, but wouldn’t Immunity be better?

I suppose the letters makes this the Loved Ones Reward Challenge, but there won’t be an individual winner this time.

8:30 and still no MrBeast? Does anybody have any money left?

Mr. Beast start time 8:34. That dude is tall.

A “MrBeast Super Beware Advantage,” and Cirie has a nightmarish flashback to Advantagegeddon from S34: Game Changers.

MrBeast only got five minutes of screen time ... unless he shows up at Tribal Council.

They’re going straight to an Immunity Challenge after eating? This is gonna be a massive barf scene that rivals the scene in the movie “Stand By Me.” What? You don’t know that one? Ok, how about “Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life?” Ok fine, how about the most recent “Jackass” movie? Cirie has already had a head start.

We’ve seen this challenge in S23: South Pacific, S33: MvGX, S34: Game Changers, S38: EoE, S42, and S47, which means Ozzy, and Aubry have done it twice (I think), and Devens, Cirie and Jonathan have done it once.

Devens steps off twice before Probst starts round 3. I wonder if kicking a little sand on the balance beam would help keep you on it?

Tiffany wins Immunity! With tonight’s twist, I have a feeling we’ll be seeing Stephenie’s Vote Stealer AND Cirie’s Extra Vote. I’m happy for Tiffany, but I want Ozzy to break the Immunity record. This makes two second place finishes this season for him.

Ozzy’s letter segment seemed like a winner moment ... until Cirie’s seemed like a bigger one.

But Devens’ letter segment seems like an exit moment.

Aubry: “The first time I played, I played with somebody (Michele) who did make their big moves at the end of the game, and they went on to win that way (in S32: Kaoh Rong).” Can you please tell me because I still don’t know. I saw all five of her votes being cast more against Aubry and Tai than for Michele. Then in the offseason, I saw two of them express regret for voting for Michele. Props to Michele for winning some late challenges, but that’s hardly a “move.” I don’t think she had an accurate read all season. Cydney lost the fire challenge to Aubry, and Michele told Cydney she didn’t need to practice.

Hearing Aubry say “There are some big threats in this game. We’re running out of numbers to do things” tells me Cirie is in trouble.

But Jonathan wants Ozzy gone. Will Ozzy or Cirie pick up on it? Will Ozzy play his Idol? It’s interesting that Jonathan admits he’d probably vote for Ozzy if he makes it to the finals.

Jonathan lies to Stephenie and says Ozzy talked about getting mixed vibes from her a couple of days ago. But Stephenie doesn’t immediately ask “Why didn’t you tell me sooner?” like Dee and Tiffany did when Coach lied to them. Stephenie has lousy instincts. Joe blabs the “boot Ozzy” plan to Cirie. Is Joe the new Emily? Joe has lousy instincts too.

Stephenie in confessional: “Cirie and Ozzy are really tight. If you tell Cirie, Ozzy will find out.” So, what does Stephenie do? She tells Cirie. Stephenie has lousy instincts.

Stephenie lies to Cirie. Doesn’t Stephenie know Cirie already knows when she’s lying? Doesn’t she remember how easily Cirie caught her lying about getting that Vote Stealer Advantage? Good lord, Stephenie!

Cirie in confessional “After Ozzy, guess who Stephenie’s coming for next? I know Stephenie doesn’t want me here for the long haul. So, Stephenie’s got to go.” Well, that wraps it up. Bye, Stephenie. Cirie hasn’t missed yet this season.

Ozzy claims he’s not surprised to learn Stephenie is coming after him. Dude, you HAVE been surprised every time Cirie warned you Emily, Christian and now Stephenie and Jonathan. Without Cirie, you’d have been gone days ago!

Stephenie is thinking of using her Vote Stealer. I don’t think it will matter.

Ozzy tips Jonathan off about Stephenie, then Jonathan warns Stephenie. So, what does Stephenie do next? She confronts Cirie! She’s really bad at this game. It wasn’t smart for Jonathan to be sitting right next to Stephenie either. Who does he think Cirie will want gone next?

Wait, now Stephenie is going after Cirie? Wait, now Rizo is the target? This target is bouncing around like the Edgardo boot from S14: Fiji.

Wow, they’re heading to Tribal Council at 9:20 in a 2-hour episode? How many tie votes will we see? Can Stephenie steal a vote each time they go to the Urn? Does Cirie get an Extra Vote in each round? Each torch should have a question mark at the top instead of a flame.

Yeah, I think every Advantage and Idol is coming out tonight, and it doesn’t matter what the Mr. Beast twist is.

Cirie: “Not one plan stood for at least 30 seconds. The normal plans usually last about 45 seconds.” Maybe that’s why Survivor editors have such a hard time showing a strong social game.

Joe: “It’s so overwhelming. Don’t feed the fear.” Joe is still trying to force people to play the way he wants them to.

Devens’ is going to work blowing up everybody’s plan. Is Devens trying to get himself voted out again? Remember what I said about choosing your partners wisely?

Stephenie: It (what Devens is saying) is all not true ... but I do have a Steal A Vote.” Stephenie takes the foot Devens just put in his mouth and shoves it into her own mouth. Stephenie is really bad at this game.

And Tiffany corners Stephenie “Why would you tell a person you’re trying to get out that you have an Advantage?” Even Christian and Coach know Stephenie is cooked.

Stephenie isn’t digging her own hole, she’s handing out shovels and asking everyone else to dig it for her. Now Aubry is calling her on her bullshit. The more Stephenie speaks, the deeper her hole gets. The smart player (Cirie, Rizo) keeps their mouth shut. But then again, Joe and Emily aren’t talking either.

I keep a list of Survivor meltdowns. I think this qualifies as one for Stephenie. This one is as bad as Jennifer Lanzetti’s in S32: Kaoh Rong. At least Jennifer had a bug literally crawl into her ear to scramble her brain. Stephenie has no excuse.

Here comes MrBeast again. Start the timer again at the 5-minute mark.

This briefcase reveal reminds me of the opening segment of “Pulp Fiction.” I need someone to ask “What does Marcellus Wallace look like?!?”

Nooooooo! The 50/50 coin is back??? They used this in S39: Island of the Idols and S40: Winners at War. Dean got an Idol Nullifier in S39. Typically indecisive Michele gave hers to Jeremy thinking it would save him. He didn’t use it and gave it back. Then Michele told everyone she had it. She used it at the next vote, but since everyone knew she had it, they didn’t vote for her. They took out a good player in Jeremy instead.

Ahh, the coin flip could make this a two million dollar season? So, that’s why they didn’t announce the prize money earlier. Does the entire pay scale double too? Does second place get $200k?

Devens wants to flip the coin? The smart player lets him do it. Why take the risk? Either Devens or Stephenie is leaving.

Rizo is right. “Devens has his name written all over this.”

Devens hits it! I think Stephenie is the only one who wanted him miss it.

Lol, suddenly Aubry is cool with Devens again.

MrBeast got 20 minutes. I don’t remember how much time Zac Brown got, but it has to be close.

Yeah, that coin flip was a pure adrenaline rush.

Commercial break. Ahh, so that’s why we haven’t heard from Billie Eilish until now. She was waiting until she could announce her movie.

Cirie: “She (Stephenie) can’t steal everybody’s vote.” I think Cirie just sealed Stephenie’s fate.

Emily tells Ozzy, “I’m with you.” FWAP!!!! I loved Ozzy’s non-reaction.

Emily to Jonathan “Everyone should vote Aubry.” Jonathan: “You’re so full of it.” Wow, everybody held on to their Idols, and Cirie didn’t use her Extra Vote. Stephenie is a goner for sure. Probst reads the votes.

“Stephenie” Ouch!

“Stephenie” Ouch!

“Stephenie” OUCH!

That was the sound of my ears popping every time Eliza screamed when each vote for Stephenie was shown.

As Stephenie places her torch, she says “For the fourth time.” Uhh, Stephenie, you’ve only been voted out three times. Did you forget you made it to the finals in S11: Guatemala?

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Recap

The coin flip was awesome. The only way it could have been better would be if there were any doubt in my mind about Stephenie leaving.

Ok, so at Final 9, we’ve got three Idols floating around (Ozzy, Rizo and now Devens). Devens can play his for anybody he wants. Cirie still has an Extra Vote too. Jonathan’s game is over, and if anybody knows Aubry was working with him, her game is probably done too.

Devens earned some good will, but I think his victory tonight only made the target on him even bigger. I wonder if Devens just got the Idol Aubry played or if it’s a brand new one?

It sure is feeling like Cirie and Ozzy are gonna be in the finals. They’ve just been in total control. I won’t be surprised if they put Rizo on the Jury though. They need someone to advocate for them. Joe is shaping up to be the least-informed finalist again, but Emily has played herself into an even bigger goat. I think Christian and Devens are the only one’s who’d consider voting for her.

Jonathan took a big swing and missed tonight. Who can he beat besides Emily and maybe Joe? Stephenie might even be angry at him now.

While there isn’t a compelling reason to want Tiffany or Aubry gone, who can they beat besides Joe, Emily and maybe Jonathan? Do either of them have enough pull to remove Ozzy, Cirie or Rizo? They’re fitting into Charlie’s “What did you do?” category for sure. There was so much happening, I don’t even know what questions to ask about. Did you like the MrBeast twist? Have you seen anybody sink their own ship like Stephenie did? What are everyone’s chances of winning? Let me know in the comments.