He slipped a couple steps the week before, but Rick might now have faceplanted to rock bottom. He drew tons of attention from the fake idol grab at the last tribal council, and had it not been for Christian coming back from his journey with an auto-vote, Rick may have been the boot instead of his best bud. It’s evident now that no one wants to play with Rick anymore; even Emily was pissed about the target he put on their alliance. I did find it strange how Rick caught so much flack by the people that voted for him or wanted to vote for him because he ... saved himself? But when I thought about who those folks were, it was less surprising.

This next episode is looking to be the newscaster’s final sign-off with him promising to play like a psychopath which I hope at least is fun TV. Rick had been playing a great game but can’t help himself when it comes to being the center of attention – I still think his planted idol move was brilliant, but he did ham it up a little too much. With Christian gone, there is no longer a Cila alliance and the true trio of Cirie, Ozzy, and Rizo have taken total control of the game. They sent Christian to Ponderosa this episode and I expect them to reunite him with Rick next.

Unfortunately, this is the exact fate I worried about with Emily – going down with Rick and Christian. On top of that, Cirie wants her out now because she tried to tell her how much rice she should cook. Oof. “Girl, have several seats” was foreshadowing to where Emily and her friends will soon all be – sitting on the jury.

Maybe Emily can rub off the Rick germs if he’s the next to go, but even if she survives that vote, she doesn’t have many options left. Jonathan, Stephenie, and Joe are not her type of people, and the Cirie squad is running the show now, so Emily would be wise just to get in line to kiss their ass but it’s too late with her fatal error in making an enemy of Cirie. As Rizo would probably say, “she’s cooked.”

Emily’s still cooking at tribal council, though. Talking about your closest ally and saying, “my sympathy is limited,” is so fucking savage. We’re in for another epic jury performance at least if she’s there like she was on 45.

I will never know why this man was cast on 50 (besides Jeff just loving a boring hero). After falling to the bottom from the Coach/Chrissy boot fallout, his pitch to Jonathan was to just “stick together” and “weather this.” “That’s all we can do,” he decided.

Where was her invite to 50? Shii Devil would devour people like Joe.

Joe has no power in this game, but he looks to have made the right call to suck up to Cirie who probably sees him as one of the people she needs who would be dumb enough to not vote her out before the end. Joe won’t be making any moves, but he’ll probably end up safe for the remainder of this game because of it. If these were “safety rankings” Joe may be #1, but even people who are likelier boots than Joe I could at least fathom ways they could get to the end and win. Whatever 3rd place gets these days – that’s what Joe’s playing for.

Like Joe and everyone else, Tiffany is trying to spend more time with Cirie. Tiffany was on board with Cirie’s idea to vote out Emily which should score her some brownie points moving forward, but besides playing at the mercy of Cirie, Tiffany, too, doesn’t have many other options.

We haven’t even heard from Tiffany and Aubry as a pair lately, so is that still a thing? I’d love to hear from Tiffany on who she thinks she really has security with in this game because I don’t know that anyone would care if Tiffany left. Sure, she hasn’t been a target since the split vote with Dee, but after the obvious Rick vote happens (and maybe Emily after that), everyone could look to come together for an “easy” one which I could see being Tiffany. She knows she’s got to “go for gusto” but I see her being blown away here within a few short weeks.

“I’m gonna slit all their throats.”

*cut to Stephenie doing nothing else this episode*

There are several people talking up wanting to play bigger games than they’re actually close to playing, and Stephenie is one. As soon as her original Vatu tribe split apart, Stephenie’s game pretty much fell apart. She still has Joe and Jonathan (quite the dream team) but I only put her a few spots above the bottom because I expect Cirie to see having some use for Steph and perhaps use her steal-a-vote to pull off a move. Will it be a game-winning move for Steph? I doubt it, but it’d be something more than sitting there and weathering out the storm.

If the Joe/Jonathan/Stephenie trio does end up targeted sooner, then Stephenie seems like the likeliest candidate to be cut first. Joe is the end game goat, and Jonathan has been shown doing more to build relationships in the game. Stephenie is otherwise reliving her glory days on Ulong playing more or less by herself.

This was a heavy Jonathan episode which…yawn. He’ll never excite me but he has a better pulse on the game than most do and despite being the biggest man at camp, he has one of the smaller targets on his back. His chat with Aubry felt important, although that went nowhere else this episode. Jonathan’s got it out bad for Rick, so that may have then been laying the groundwork for this next week.

I don’t think anyone below Jonathan on the list has a real shot of making it to the end and winning, but Jonathan isn’t entirely ruled out yet. He’s going to have friends on the jury, but he’ll also have enemies in Dee and Tiffany too. Considering he looks like a caveman, Jonathan speaks to his strategy well in confessional and this entire time has been a much-improved version for his former self. He’d have to get rid of Cirie, obviously, and probably Ozzy too but in a final three with a mix of others who haven’t done as much as Jonathan has to try and forge a path forward, his chances of winning aren’t horrible. However, that would be a horrible ending to 50 for me.

Me waiting for Aubry to mean business.

Aubry’s story this season has been the weirdest to me – she had the long feud with Genevieve that had a very quick and painless resolution to it; then she was forced to flush her idol without much fanfare, and the past two weeks she’s talked about being underestimated, heating up, and ready to make this “her game” but…even this week, she had that big confessional and then hardly spoke the rest of the episode.

She’s played a similar game to Tiffany but I think just because of who is left in the game, Aubry has more potential options. Aubry came close to winning a final vote before, so she has it in her to win, and up against people like Joe, Tiffany, and Stephenie I don’t think she’d have much trouble pitching a winning case, but she needs to come through on her promise to take charge of this game. If she can take down the entire “Cirie’s Rizard of Oz” alliance then she and Jonathan are likely next in line to win, but it’d still be a weird way for 50 to end if some eleventh-hour move won it for Aubry, so I don’t feel confident in her even at #4 here in my rankings. The field is just now narrower by default.

It’s really Cirie, Ozzy, and Rizo for me not only in who’s running this game from top to bottom right now but who has the best path to winning it (in that 1-2-3 order). Okay but then why is Ozzy my #3 here? Because I think his best is yet to come. Ozzy continues to be an active player in the game and we hear from him more than we probably should with how much control he really has on the game – or, rather, how much control his #1 and #2 have. Cirie and Rizo are the brains of this trio, so for as long as they’re both in the game, they’re going to have more driving authority over who leaves.

Luckily for Ozzy, being tight with those two will help him in a final three where he can maybe take claim for some of those moves if both Cirie and Rizo end up on the jury. Right now, then, I’d say Ozzy has less “power” in the game than both of them, but if he outlasts them both, then I think he reaps their reward. He’d lose to Cirie, but I’m not so sure he’d still lose to Rizo, however. It’d be a tough battle, but I think Ozzy could pull it out by selling a jury on his 5-season arc up against a kid who is so new in the Survivor world and may talk himself up a little too much at tribal council. For now, I think Rizo is outplaying Ozzy, but Ozzy can still outperform him at the end.

It was a quieter episode for Rizo, but he made sure to get his word in with enthusiastically keeping the vote on Christian. While it would’ve been funny to see Emily voted out literally over Ricegate (4.0? 5.0? I forget how many of these we’ve had on the show), Rizo was right to take advantage of voting for Christian when he was at his absolute most vulnerable.

I begrudgingly admit that Rizo is playing fantastically. He’s right there with Cirie in having all the right reads and relationships to keep him protected in the game. On paper, if he takes out Cirie and gets to the end, he should win. His game focus, though, is so strategic and I remember back to when he complained about having to play the “survival” part of Survivor which felt like a small red flag that he’s either naïve or not appreciative of all critical components of the game.

I could be wrong, or just wishfully thinking, but I still envision him rubbing some folks the wrong way with his potential final tribal speech. He’ll want to go down as the greatest Survivor winner ever, and in trying to do so, he may lack a little humility which is where I see Cirie and Ozzy being able to win it over Rizo. Those two can then retire and Rizo can give it another go on Survivor 60.

The Queen of Survivor will always be Sandra, but the Queen of Survivor 50 is Cirie. Watching her work her magic every week in that hammock, which has become her throne, telling her minions what to do and give them marching orders has become my favorite thing. Sitting so pretty should be the hardest thing to do in a season as big as this one, but she truly makes it look easy. Cirie is the boss and she has everyone happily working for her.

Christian coming to Cirie to pitch an Ozzy vote, to me, was the biggest indicator on how completely fooled she has all these…well, fools. Cirie is the mastermind, and this episode she perfectly presented just how integrated she is with every single person in the game. She may have had a little emotional impulse to initially go after Emily, but she showed flexibility in coming around on Christian as to not make it so obvious she’s a dictator. Given the caliber of this cast (for the most part) and the target Cirie should have had this entire game, the fact that she’s made it this far and looks to be at the top of the food chain makes me want to call this Cirie’s best game ever.

I look back to the swap when it was looking scary with Dee’s warning (courtesy of her friend back home) to not let Cirie get far in this game. Not only has Cirie gotten far, but Dee is already on the jury. Dee knew in her gut that Cirie would be the most dangerous person in this game, but she didn’t act on it, and look where it landed her. The ending of this game could very well be the biggest “I fucking told you so” in Survivor history and I will be the biggest fan of it.

Like a relic from Ghost Island, Ryan's an old school TDT blogger who took a break in the middle of the new era but is back for Survivor 50 by popular demand...or at least Jeff Pitman's. For more #Survivor commentary, follow on Bluesky: @ryankaiser.bsky.social