I think this next episode will come down to Cirie vs. Rick because they’re the biggest, boldest players left in the game. Aubry sounds to be pushing Cirie’s name while I’m betting Jonathan will want Rick to go now that he’s idol-less (at the moment). Joe will side with Jonathan, and obviously Cirie will have to side with the “not Cirie” plan. Cirie looks to have Tiffany locked in, and Rizo’s choice to let Ozzy go struck me as more anti-Ozzy than anti-Cirie, so all this to say: Cirie should have the numbers to stay.

I’ve come to love Rick this season, and the finale would undoubtedly be more fun with him in it than ... virtually everyone left except Cirie. But if the vote comes down to Rick vs. Cirie, my heart is with Cirie. Rick’s done all he could do to survive the last several votes, though losing ally after ally in the process, but I think it’s near impossible for him to make a run all the way to final three. It would literally have to be finding and playing a new every idol every vote which ... given how things have gone this season maybe is less near impossible than it should be.

I’m so thankful Tiffany has decided to play this game with Cirie because losing both Cirie and Ozzy this episode would have been me quit the season. While Tiffany is less of a threat to win the game, she’s proven to be a beast in challenges, so another small point in Cirie’s favor is that between her and Tiff, Tiffany could be a bigger risk to let get further because she can win immunity and thwart plans, while Cirie cannot (at least via winning immunity).

Tiffany’s move to get to the end could be to replace Ozzy in the Cirie’s Rizard of Oz alliance, but I’m doubting Rizo’s loyalty to that over the enticing sound of going to the end with some combination of Aubry, Jonathan, and Joe instead. If that’s the final four, then the final six vote could be them debating between Cirie and Tiffany, so for purely challenge reasons, I think Tiffany is in a more dangerous spot than Cirie and with limited cards left to play.

Sadly, I saw Ozzy as Cirie’s only ticket to the end. If he won final immunity, he’d have taken her there and pitted two others against each other in fire; if it’s a final four vote, then he’d have voted to keep her and at least given her a shot to stay at a tiebreaker fire-making challenge. With Ozzy out of the picture and a 99.9% chance Cirie won’t win the final immunity challenge (if she even survives to see it), I see no path for Cirie to win this game any more, so I lost both of the two players I was rooting for most to see take the $2 million prize.

Cirie can manage to pull off something because she’s still Cirie, but my gut says it won’t be enough to win anymore. If not out as early as final seven, then somewhere between six and four. Jonathan holds a lot of power now, and he likes Cirie more than Rick, so while her name will definitely be pushed again, I’m cautiously optimistic that she’ll make the finale. Beyond that, we need a literal Survivor miracle here. I don’t even care what game-breaking twist they need to throw in to push her to the end at that point. If wishing for that means I have to put an offer down on 500 Hypocrisy Hill, so be it.

I don’t think this guy would put up much of a fight to maintain ownership of that property. All I’d have to say is that Rick Devens is moving in next door.

I don’t think Joe will be #4 in placement this season as I’m still riding strong as him being the 3rd place 0-vote finalist, but the only move he’s making the rest of this season is voting out Rick. While their old school alliance crumbled, Joe and Jonathan have managed to come out on top with this last vote helped by Jonathan’s OP immunity powers, so it’s very likely those will make up two of the final seats at tribal, and it’ll be a matter of whether Jonathan, the brain behind their operation (yikes) pushes to have Rizo or Aubry sit next to them – or it may be out of their hands and “in the hands of the fans” who voted for fire-making instead of a vote. Joe would certainly appreciate that because it’d involve less strategic input.

Rizo was in a tough spot and both ways he could’ve went had pros and cons. After Ozzy admitted to Aubry that his heart was set on taking Cirie to the end but not Rizo, I do think Rizo made the right call to let Ozzy go home with his idol. Rizo bought favor with Jonathan, Aubry, and Joe in doing that, and he still will have Cirie’s loyalty because she won’t have much other choice. However, with this move, the hold that Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo had on the game is over and now it’s shifted to Jonathan, Aubry, and Joe, but I’m not sure the other four clearly see that threat.

If Rizo falls into the trap of letting Rick, Tiffany, and Cirie go, then he signs his death warrant at final four whether it’s a vote or fire. He’d be right there with Cirie in having gone home from losing a fire-making challenge twice, but maybe he’ll surprise us if he learned in the week and a half between seasons how to become an expert. Rizo may still be in the running if he can make it to final tribal council, but he’s still been playing more passively the last couple weeks while Jonathan and Aubry now have picked up their pace, so while I’d have said previously that he could beat anyone but Cirie and Ozzy, while he may have outmanuvered them with his move this week, he gave up a good deal of power to Aubry and Jonathan.

Well, she finally did her big one. I will never know what possessed Ozzy to spill his entire endgame strategy to Aubry, but that effectively gave her the keys to the bus to run him over and maybe everyone else while she’s at it. Jonathan said he still doesn’t trust Aubry as far as he could throw her, but that might actually mean Jonathan trusts her a lot given he probably could toss her a good distance.

Aubry has separated herself enough from Rick now to not go down with him like Emily, and she seems much less talked about now as a target, so she’s someone who is very likely safe until final four. What goes down there could be a multitude of scenarios, but she’s probably smart enough to know that if she helps Cirie get to four, then that ensures the target isn’t on Aubry, giving her the go to final three. Spinning this what seemed like a doomed vote for Aubry around and blindsiding Ozzy with his idol is the kind of boost she needed to have a stronger case at the end, but I’m still not fully convinced one upswing in the last three weeks is the winner ending we’re getting. That Michele flashback could be the beating over the head the casuals need, however, to be sold on an Aubry win.

You know Jeff was TOO happy to re-call the challenge in Jonathan’s favor given the twist they had in store with the immunity “power broker” or whatever they called it. They could have named it the “God twist” with how much power Jonathan had. The two camps had to separate, but he had the ability to float between them, talk to whoever, say whatever, and have no one able to fact-check it. So compelling!

If I consider Cirie and Rick doomed, then of the remaining five, Jonathan and Rizo have been the most active in the move-making throughout the merge. Jonathan’s had some swings and misses, but outside of the spat with Dee and Tiffany after the Kamilla vote, he hasn’t looked too negative, and we know he has several locked votes on the jury. Rizo and Aubry won’t be total pushovers for him at final tribal council (like Joe) but Jonathan’s been more articulate in his game this season, so with Ozzy and Cirie falling off as frontrunners, Jonathan’s looking really good – which is bad for me. On paper, he’s played fine; he’s just such a non-exciting winner prospect for this milestone season.

Like a relic from Ghost Island, Ryan's an old school TDT blogger who took a break in the middle of the new era but is back for Survivor 50 by popular demand...or at least Jeff Pitman's. For more #Survivor commentary, follow on Bluesky: @ryankaiser.bsky.social