Last week, we saw Sophi B. and Alex swapped to separate tribes. They both represented the only member of their original tribe on their new tribes. Sophi B. worked her way in very well with her new tribemates, immediately being brought in on the plan to vote out either Jason or Matt. We haven’t seen how Alex has adjusted to his new circumstances, but it doesn’t appear that he’s a target yet.

This inspired me to take a look back at how previous Survivor players adjusted when they found themselves alone on a new tribe. This probably won’t be a comprehensive look back, since the inspiration only hit me an hour before this week’s episode began.

The first time this happened was in S8: All-Stars, when each player grabbed a new buff from inside a tube (which was suspicious to me). Amber ended up being the only one from her original tribe on a new 5-member Chapera tribe. Amber’s idea to save herself included claiming to be a harder worker in camp than Jerri, and promising Lex and Kathy a final 5 deal that included Boston Rob and Big Tom who were now on the other tribe. Amber eventually got saved when Boston Rob approached Lex at a challenge and convinced him not to boot Amber. Needless to say, Amber didn’t exactly save herself.

The next example came in S10: Palau, when Stephenie LaGrossa (who we’ll see next season) emerged as the only member of the Ulong tribe to make it to the merge. Her situation was a little different, as she had two days with everyone at the start of the game, and had already joined an alliance with Tom, Ian and Katie, only to see herself away from all of them when she was picked to be on the other tribe. By the time the merge came, the other women were intimidated by Stephenie’s competitive drive and removed her early.

In S28: Cagayan, Sarah Lacina played it ok at her first vote, then about as badly as possible. She was the 1 in a 3-3-1 swap. She saw how Morgan and Jeremiah were willing to betray their tribemate Alexis and helped vote her out. Then at the merge, Sarah’s read was terrible. She thought that by being a swing vote being pitched by both her swapped tribemates and her original Brawn tribemates gave her all the power. She tried to force her will on her swapped tribemates and push the vote against Tony or L.J., even flat out refusing to vote for her swapped tribemates’ desired target Jefra. Sarah didn’t realize that by doing so, she alienated Kass, who flipped, joined Sarah’s original tribemates and helped blindside Sarah. Sarah learned from her mistake in S34: Game Changers, when she found herself in the same position. But this time around, hers was really a no-brainer decision as the majority couldn’t resist the chance to be the first ones to vote out Queen Sandra. Then at the next vote, Jeff Varner shot himself in the foot by outing Zeke as transgender.

In S30: Worlds Apart, both Joe Anglim and Kelly Remington found themselves separated from all of their original tribemates. Joe seemed oblivious to the need to make an adjustment. He went fishing and mostly spoke about how much more comfortable his new camp was. He didn’t seem to know how his great challenge performances had his new tribemates planning on booting him to prevent a post-merge Immunity streak. Joe got saved when Mike got suspicious of how close Rodney had become to his new tribemate Joaquin. Kelly played it much better, making sure to spend time with all of her new tribemates. She happened to be in the right place at the right time when Carolyn announced she had no interest in sticking with her original tribemates Shirin and Max (who got blindsided).

In S35: HHH, Devon, Roark and Ben all found themselves alone on an island after a swap. Roark made the mistake of confronting Chrissy after catching her in a lie. Roark got voted out by Chrissy and her original tribemates. Ben was never tested as his tribe didn’t vote before the merge but he made strong relationships with Lauren and Dr. Mike, which paid off for him post-merge. Devon played it the best as everyone on his new tribe liked and trusted him. However, in a twist, he lost his vote, and his loyalty wasn’t tested either. But he did deliver a memorable quote when he got his “Advantage,” saying “This is NOT an Advantage.”

As I mentioned last week, in S44, Carson, Jamie and Joshua were all sent on a Journey and assigned to new tribes. But they also got an Idol to protect themselves. They could operate with much more security than others who found themselves alone.

And most recently, in S45, Emily (who we’ll also see next season) and Kaleb were the last two survivors form their original tribe and were swapped to new tribes. Kaleb was a social butterfly and had quick strategic conversations with everyone…a tactic that backfired as everyone suspected he was playing too hard. At the merge, he caught every vote and saved himself with the Shot in the Dark. But he was booted at the next vote. Emily played it better and said “yes” when both sides approached her. That gave her time to figure out which was her best option. Kendra was completely blindsided when Emily helped vote out her partner Brando.

I’ll be very interested to see how Alex plays it this week.

Here are a couple of notes from my rewatch of last week’s episode. When Matt was voted out, he left Tribal Council empty-handed. At first, I thought he was overconfident and didn’t bother bringing his things to Tribal Council with him. But when he walked in, he had his bag with him. This tells me he wasn’t overconfident in his plan to remove Nate. Just the same, I have to wonder why he still voted for Nate after he learned he didn’t have Sophi B. on his side, and the choice was clearly between Jason and himself. It also begs this question: Can the other players take Matt’s things back to camp and use them? When Matt claimed he wasn’t gonna throw Jason or Sophi under the bus, Sophi B.s face contorted into a “bullshit” expression that would rival Courtney Yates from S15: China and S20: Heroes vs. Villains.

There was a lot of online talk about Rizo’s Idol. Not about how he found it, but how Savannah, Jawan and Nate found the instructions at the well without Rizo. Could one or all three of them have taken that Idol and not told Rizo? That would be very tempting if there were two players who weren’t closely aligned. Like suppose Sandra found the instructions for a Beware Advantage found by Russell? Even if she couldn’t keep the Idol for herself, could she have hidden it from Russell? I’d love to know.

And away we go…

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Jason: “I really like all of y’all.” There’s really nothing else he could say here. The damage was done when you positioned yourself as (original) Hina strong. Sleeping away from the rest of the tribe wasn’t smart either. You’re giving them a chance to figure out how to fool you at the next vote.

Savannah in confessional: “I have nothing to worry about.” The Survivor Gods don’t like statements like that. It won’t happen this week, but that’s bound to catch up with her.

Shannon pitches a 2-2-2 alliance to Steven, and she thinks it’s a brilliant idea. Didn’t she watch Q crash and burn with his “Journey 6 Alliance” in S46? Does she know how the S18: Tocantins “Exile Alliance” crashed and burned too? Ignore Survivor history at your own risk. In pregame interviews, Shannon said she ran an A.I. program for strategy tips. Something tells me this won’t become a trend with future players.

And of course, Steven immediately thinks Shannon is playing too hard. Shannon is pulling a Kaleb. She doesn’t seem to realize every smart player will give a lip service “yes.”

Kristina in confessional: “She’s (Shannon) playing the game real hard, and people are starting to question her. I want to fight for her so hard, but at the same time, I need to take inventory of my gut vs. my emotions.” Yea, Shannon is this season’s merge Kaleb. Even her closest contact Kristina is aware of it.

Jason wants to break the “us vs. them” mentality to improve his position. He’s talking Pokeon with Jawan. I wonder if he knows how Rodney got himself in trouble with his original tribemates by getting so close to Joaquin? Does Jawan know about that? Do either of them notice how Rizo isn’t into this conversation?

And now Jawan takes Savannah’s water bottle by mistake. Jawan isn’t very good at this game.

Sage is doing a good job of gathering damaging info on Shannon (“Her voice gets higher when somebody else is around. So sloppy.”) Come on Sage, it’s time to start using this info against Shannon. It’s either you or her. It’s time for you to make sure it’s her. Don’t wait/hope for others to realize this for themselves. This is remind me of how in S45 Katurah wasted a lot of time hoping others realized how annoying Bruce was.

Alex seems to be cool with Shannon’s play, but Steven tips him off. And Sage just happens to be there to reinforce the bad vibes. She did the right thing but got lucky with the timing. Intention goes a long way with me when evaluating someone’s game. I’d like this development better if Shannon had subtly ignited the “Shannon is playing too hard” conversation.

Here comes the boat. If Hina is smart, they won’t let Jason get on it. This would be the only time I’d say someone should get on the boat. This is similar to the sandbagging strategy in a post-merge challenge. Stay in it until the person you want to vote out is eliminated. That way, you don’t stand out as a challenge beast. Aras did this to perfection in S12: Panama - Exile Island. In this case, an original Uli should “reluctantly” get chosen to go.

Kele has two options to remove who don’t appear to like each other, so they don’t have to worry about who goes on this Journey. Just the same, MC shouldn’t have been so quick to volunteer.

I like the way Jawan rigged the Journey rock draw. Nate’s risk isn’t as big, mostly because they don’t have to have his vote to get rid of Jason. Lauren did the same thing in S44, but she did it with sticks.

The downside of course, is this challenge will leave them both physically exhausted…and their tribemates will still question their sincerity.

Oh yeah, MC has already lost her vote! She doesn’t have a vote to lose! If they don’t complete the task what happens to her? Does she lose a vote for TWO Tribal Councils?

MC: “What do you do for work?” Nate: “I’m a stay at home dad.” Unlike Matt, Nate had his lie locked and loaded. He was prepared to give an answer when the question came up. He was much more believable. But if I were MC, I’d be wondering “Why would Survivor cast a stay at home dad over someone with a more intriguing profession?”

Nate: “All I want to do is take a nap. I LOVED the cut to Nate’s napping tribemates. Yet another reason not to get on the boat.

This mid-challenge note twist is interesting. And Nate comes up with a GREAT idea to secure his vote. I think Nate played this about as well as it could have been played. He saved his vote, built a little trust with MC, and kept the Advantage away from Jason and MC while simultaneously keeping that target off his back. And he can be completely honest with his tribe. The unavoidable downside is he’ll have no energy in reserve for the Immunity Challenge. Again, another reason not to get on the boat.

In pregame, Shannon also said she got advice from Boston Rob. Shannon does the exact opposite of what Boston Rob would do and walks away from the majority. Boston Rob was a control freak who tried to forbid everyone from leaving camp.

Sage’s face during her phony hug with Shannon got the best laugh out of me this season. Shannon in confessional “My relationship with Sage doesn’t feel that different from (what it was on) Uli.” Sage has Shannon completely fooled. Good for Sage.

It’s clear Jawan annoys Savannah, but I wonder if he has that same effect on anyone else? Rizo doesn’t seem to feel that way. This could be a good test of how strong an influence she has on her tribe. If she can convince her tribe to boot Jawan instead of Jason, she could emerge as a power player. Then again, that could also put a huge target on her back. Suppose Rizo wants to improve his position post-merge and realizes Savannah can outwit him in the finals. Identifying her as a “leader” or power player to others could improve his position…if he can avoid getting labeled the power player in the process.

I remember a challenge similar to this was used in S39: Island of the Idols. They carried their cage over the land. Eventual winner Tommy played it well. He let Aaron do the early shooting, which enhanced Aaron’s challenge beast image. Tommy didn’t step in until Aaron started missing shots. Tommy made a couple of shots, but avoided the “beast” label.”

They also used this challenge in S45. Eventual winner Dee was too short to lift the cage out of the water most of the way. The same could happen to Savannah and Sophi B. this season.

And sure enough, Kele closes the gap and takes the lead when they reach the sand. And they haven’t even noticed there’s still a sandbag at the front. Nate’s exhaustion can explain his lack of strength here, but Sophi B. is doing a better job at this than Jason.

As grueling as it is carrying that cage, most Survivor players say there’s nothing more exhausting than digging in sand.

MC and Rizo take the spotlight roles shooting hoops. Then Alex pulls a Tommy and steps in for MC. When Rizo shot, he said “For Luka.” At first, I thought he was talking about NBA star Luka Doncic, but Rizo is Albanian and Doncic is Slovenian.

Probst: “Rizo pops Sophi in the face.” I’ll file that one under “unintended humor.”

Kele wins, and Savannah has the chance to flex her muscles.

Alex dug his way out of the cage after Kele won and his tribemates were digging too. It would suck even more for Hina if they had to dig out of that cage after losing. Probst: “I’m exhausted, and I’m fully fed and sleeping.” Sorry Jeff, but you’re a jerk for saying that.

Kele opts to kill one of the chickens, but they don’t have an axe. That makes it a lot harder to do.

I’m not crazy about a lot of fans who claim they can ‘read the edit,” but I can’t help but notice we simply haven’t seen Sophie S. talk strategy much at all. All we’ve seen with her is MC tipping her off about the original Hina alliance. Today, all we got from her was about eating chicken.

Sophi B. is on pace to tie Denise Stapley’s record from S25: Philippines. She attended every single Tribal Council.

If the original Uli boot Jason, that makes the numbers 6 for Uli, 4 for Hina and 2 floaters from Kele. That increases the odds that a 6 vs 6 could emerge with Alex and Sophi having a little power as swing votes. Booting Jawan isn’t a bad plan since he’s both annoying and more of an independent player.

How ironic is it that last week, Jason pitched his ability to keep original Hina votes away from the Ulis, and Savannah scoffed at it, but this week that’s exactly what she’s pitching to Jason?

Savannah to Jason: “I don’t want to play a 6 v 6 game. If I wanted that, I’d stay home and play basketball.” Uhh, Savannah, basketball is at the most 5 v 5. You’re thinking about hockey. Yeah, Survivor needs more Canadian players.

Savannah is smart for nudging Nate into officially “making the decision” on Jason vs Jawan. She’d be in what I consider the best position: Leading the decisions without being labeled as the “leader.” That’s the way Earl won S14: Fiji.

Jawan is worried about being an effective communicator. I’d have the same fear. Not only would I worry if I communicated clearly, I’d also be worried about being TOO effective. That’s part of what got Gabe removed in S47. Others saw him as too articulate.

Sophi B: “Every player faces a tsunami.” Sophi B. is good at this game, and she’s also good at delivering Probst-approved metaphors. No doubt that’s what helped her get chosen for this cast.

Savannah starts writing her vote, and once again, when the two on the chopping block have a name that starts with the same letter, we see someone writing that letter. In this case, it’s 2 letters: “Ja.”

Bye Jason. I wonder if the Ulis have decided to sacrifice Jawan first at the merge similar to how Dee & company sacrificed their tribemates J. Maya AND Sifu (even if they actually shot at Kaleb first). That reduced the target on the Reba 4 and made things a lot easier on Dee.

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Recap

There wasn’t much drama this episode. It was fairly easy to see Jason would go if Hina lost again. The only real mystery would be wondering what would happen if new Kele lost.

Alex played the swap ok, I suppose. He pretty much stumbled into making the right call as opposed to planning it out in advance. He was buying what Shannon was selling before others told him.

Jason was a little swap-screwed, but he did next to nothing to improve his position after he saw the numbers.

Who leaves next if Hina loses again? Does Uli sacrifice Jawan, or to they decide Sophi B. has nothing left and cut her as a mercy vote? What if Kele loses? Has Shannon talked herself out of the game already?

Then again, with 12 players left, it seems a lot more likely the tribes will merge. A 3-person finals with a 9-person jury makes sense. Then again, every New Era jury has had 8 members. I’d like to see Kele do a pre-merge vote. But knowing Probst, they’ll repeat the “Next boot misses the Jury” thing again. Let me know what you think in the comments.