First, a couple of notes from my rewatch. Last week, I said “After rewatching it once, I noticed Rizo was holding his real Idol when Probst asked if anyone wanted to play anything.” But after going back and seeing a screen cap of Rizo’s real Idol, I realized I was totally wrong. The Idol Rizo pulled out as Probst returned with the Urn was the phony. He was planning on playing the fake Idol all along. It’s still possible he played the phony to gauge everyone’s reactions, but he didn’t change his mind about playing the real Idol. I think he always intended on holding onto it.

After Kristina played her Idol for Steven, I noticed Sophi B. was the only one looking at the Jury and grinning. That’s a subtle way of telling them, “I know what’s gonna happen, and it’s good for me.” Jury management comes in many forms.

I also wrote that Sophi B. was the one who suggested their alliance let Sophie S. decide who’d they vote out between Jawan and Sage. I was wrong about that too. It was Savannah who suggested they talk to Sophie S. first. In a separate scene, Rizo came to the same conclusion.

And in a secret scene, Sophi B. and Sophie S. searched Kristina’s bag for an Idol. Sophi B. found two different sets of beads on a string – one string was longer than the other. They recognized one of them as being taken from Treemail but they weren’t sure about the other one. She also found a note from one of the Journeys (Matt’s? MC’s?), but she didn’t find an Idol note. I’m not sure why Kristina would have someone else’s Journey note, but it was there. This tells me Sophi B. may not have been sure Kristina had an Idol. That might explain why she didn’t take it with her Knowledge Is Power Advantage. She might have suspected Kristina’s Idol was a phony. She didn’t want to look foolish in front of the Jury by wasting her KIP.

But Sophi B. definitely knows Rizo has an Idol. Going into the final 7, Rizo trusts her as much as he trusts Savannah. Sophi B. is perfectly positioned to flip the game on its head by taking Rizo out and taking his Idol at the same time. But that move alone won’t be enough. Sophi B. will need an army to protect her after Rizo (or Savannah) is gone, or she’ll get whacked at the next vote. Can she insulate herself with, say, Sophie S., and any combination of Kristina, Steven and Sage? Let’s find out.

And away we go…

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Rizo says his plan was to use his phony Idol to flush Kristina’s Idol. I can buy that completely. It just would have been cooler if he used it to gauge everyone’s reactions.

Sophie S. immediately goes to work on getting Kristina and Steven back on her side. She should recruit them with Sophie B. by her side. They have less reason to trust her without Sophi B. there.

Sophie S. was smart to have Sophi B. join her when she pitched Sage, but she wasn’t smart for arguing with Sage when she’s hurting the most. At this moment, Sage isn’t gonna see your perspective no matter what you say. And adding “I’m not gonna apologize for that” only made it worse.

I still want to know why Sophie S. thought Jawan was such a huge threat?

I wonder who Sage is more angry with between Sophie S., Savannah and Rizo? That will come into play if/when Sage ends up on the Jury. Sophie S. might have lost Sage’s Jury vote.

In my pre-season column, I wrote “Sage also strikes me as a “just there for the adventure” type who is closer to being an unpredictable wild card than a serious threat to win. Sage got bad vibes from Sophie S., saying “I just don’t think I’d get along with her.” Sage sure as hell called her shot on that one. It doesn’t look like any of these players were able to predict her votes either.

Sophi B.: “I need to gather the troops (against Savannah and Rizo) and prepare everybody for battle. I need people like Sage.” Amen, sista! You need to talk her into trusting some combination of Sophie S., Steven, and Kristina.

Sophi B. knows she can beat Sage. This is probably the biggest test of Sophi B.’s game. But Sage sounds like her decision will be 100% emotional.

In S47, I told Rachel not to get on the boat when she faced a post-merge Journey, but she went anyway. She prevented everyone else from getting an Advantage, but she also had an Idol nobody else knew about.

Steven going on this Journey is probably the safest move for everyone. Even if he gets an Advantage, Rizo and Savannah still have the edge. Just the same, everyone is still gonna assume Steven has an Advantage. What does he have to lose?

Sophi B. and Sophie S., Why are you so worried about Steven? If he gets something or wins Immunity, just vote out Kristina. Or take Rizo’s Idol and boot him. Just the same, Sophi B. did a good job of convincing Sophie S. she’s willing to flip on Rizo and Savannah.

Seeing “2/25/26” (the start date for Survivor 50) is really detracting from this season for me.

Steven is very likable, but just like Jawan, I wonder why Sophie S. thinks he’s such a huge threat? Is he a bigger threat than Rizo?

Steven has to run around the entire island? It might not be worth the effort. It might be smarter just to relax and plan out a bluff that might work. He could bluff like Mary did last season. By NOT hunting for an Idol, Sai, Cedrek and Justin thought she was too relaxed and HAD to have one.

This looks like the same area those exiled on S40: Winners at War had to run that grueling marathon log-hauling challenge to get Fire Tokens.

If this Advantage isn’t an Idol, or another KIP, it probably wasn’t worth the effort.

It’s a Block A Vote that hilariously promises to be anonymous. Again, I don’t want to do the math while the show is on, but I’m not sure this will save Steven’s life in the game. He’s almost forced to tell someone about it, which means others will have time to figure out how to beat it.

If he blocks Rizo’s vote, he might as well say “Rizo, play your Idol.” If Savannah wins Immunity, how does this help him?

They’re chasing the chickens. I wonder what good content we’ll miss because of this fruitless chicken hunt.

Props to Rizo for figuring out what Steven’s Advantage is. A Block A Vote isn’t much different from a Steal A Vote.

True, Sophi B. can take Steven’s Advantage, but if she doesn’t think she can beat Rizo or Savannah, why would she do that?

Rizo, if you were that worried about Steven having an Advantage, you should have gotten on the boat. Or at least come up with a plan to deal with whatever Advantage Steven got while he was gone. This is the first time Rizo has shown a crack in his confidence.

This looks like another entirely new Immunity Challenge for U.S. Survivor. But Sophi says she knows about it?

Will they or will they not penalize players for having an upside down letter?” There were penalties for that in S35 HHH, but not in other seasons.

I think the most important block is the first one. If you don’t center that one perfectly, you have no shot.

Steven is leading, but his stack is already leaning. Sage’s stack is the only one that looks stable to me.

Steven wins Immunity, so now it’s a game of chicken. Does Rizo play his Idol for himself or Savannah? Does Sophi B. steal the spotlight from him by stealing Rizo’s Idol? If she does that, she guarantees herself a spot in the final 5 because I don’t think anybody is gonna vote for her at final 6.

Steven takes Kristina along to eat, then he chooses Rizo? Hmm…that sounds like he’s trying to buy a Jury vote. But he also knows this will stop Rizo and Savannah from plotting together. I think he needed to take Sage along. The question now is who’s vote is he gonna block if he uses his Advantage?

Rizo: “This is me being honest…” When I hear someone saying that I immediately think they’re lying.

Rizo pitches removing Sophie S. That’s a golden opportunity for Steven to turn Sophie S. against Rizo.

It’s interesting that most who’ve wanted Savannah gone have done it for emotional reasons instead of strategic ones. They want her gone because they don’t like her. Don’t they know that’s a good reason to sit next to her in the finals?

Sage: “When you piss me off, you go home.” When has that actually happened? Shannon is really the only one. Sage failed almost every other time she tried to push her agenda. By my count, Sage is 1-for-6.

Even if Sophie S. does leave, it doesn’t sound like it was Sage who pushed this vote through. Everyone else just happened to pick her too. Sage certainly didn’t convince Rizo, Steven or Kristina to do it. If Sage tries to take credit for this at FTC, she might be greeted with a lot of blank faces.

Why isn’t anybody targeting Rizo? Maybe Jeff Pitman was right when he speculated that Rizo is positioned like Xander in S41. Nobody cares about his Idol and grandstanding because none of them think he can win. The difference for me is that Rizo has been doing his grandstanding in front of the Jury, while Xander did most of his in confessionals.

Sage: “I can’t fake emotions.” That’s a huge weakness in Survivor.

Rizo: “It’s two ... two birds for the price ... it’s two stones ... is it? ... one stone for two ... ahh ... it’s like the cherry on top if we can take out Sophie tonight.”

Ok Rizo, you just ate. You should be able to think better now. Maybe you’re spaghetti drunk like Ben got drunk on pizza in S46.

Rizo to Sage: “I don’t want to throw out names, but I really want yellow Sophie out.” Yeah, he’s spaghetti drunk alright.

It sounds like Steven is gonna pull a Rizo and hold on to his Block A Vote.

Savannah: “When I go to vote it’s all about revenge.” That’s a bad statement to make in front of a Jury. You’re telling them your decisions are emotional as opposed to strategic.

Oh crap, I didn’t look to see when Steven’s Block A Vote expires. He wants to keep it, so it’s at least good until final 6. (Post-Tribal Council rewatch. It expires at final 6). Steven didn’t block anybody’s vote. I think Sophie S. is gone. Next week should be really fun.

Yep, it happened again. When the two names on the block begin with the same letter, we see someone writing that letter. This time it was Sophie B.

Savannah glares at Sophie S. when the second vote for her comes up. Savannah sure knows how to chase votes away. Why does she think this will help her get Sophie S.’s jury vote?

With Jawan openly clapping towards Sage, he might have advertised a reason to boot Sage. He may have just told everyone he’s voting for Sage if she’s there at the end.

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Recap

Yeah, the Sophie S. boot was predictable, but this episode got me pumped up for next week. I think everyone has a shot except Kristina and Sage. Even with Savannah rubbing some the wrong way, I can still see her getting votes from Nate, MC, Alex, Jawan, Sophie S., and possible jurors Rizo, Steven and Sophi B.

It sounds like Sophie S. got a little cocky and overconfident after flipping to Rizo and Savannah’s side. The jury seemed impressed with it, but it’s unclear who they’re crediting for this move. Sophie S. sure as hell doesn’t know.

Yeah, next week is guaranteed to have some fireworks. Since it’s the last night Rizo can play his Idol, it’s also the last chance Sophi B. can make an impression on the jury by stealing it with her KIP. There’s a 100% chance it will work too. I can’t think of a good reason for her NOT to take it.

I suppose she could impress some by taking Steven’s Advantage, especially if he opens his mouth about it and the information leaks her way. Taking out Steven with his own Advantage would be impressive too.

But Steven can also block someone from voting if Sophi doesn’t take his Advanage. He has Kristina on his side, and I can’t think of why he’d block Sophi B. or Sage’s vote. He doesn’t know Rizo will lose his Idol, so I guess it only makes sense for him to block Rizo or Savannah’s vote.

If Rizo loses his Idol, but stays in the game, I wonder if that will hurt his chances of winning? He’ll look foolish for not knowing his ally had this power. I also wonder if that move will do enough to put Sophi B. in a winning position.

I’m still liking Sophi B.’s game. She did an excellent job of making Sophie S. feel confident she’d help boot Savannah if Steven won Immunity. Sophi B. is probably why this blindside worked so well. Will she be able to own this move in front of the Jury with Rizo, Sage and Savannah all planning on doing the same thing?

What do you think? Who should get credit for this blindside, and how does it affect the end game? Whose vote should Steven block and why? Who complicates the game the most with an Immunity win next week? Let me know in the comments.