Last week’s episode was pretty much setting up this week’s because there are so many trinkets that figure to be put into play. The vote against Sophie S. was unanimous, so there wasn’t much revealing information about that vote either. The secret scene was only about the Treemail message announcing the Immunity Challenge. For that reason, I don’t have much new info to share from my rewatch.

So instead, I’ll dedicate this week’s intro to updating some stats – meaningless and otherwise – from the many lists and files I keep on Survivor. This will also free me up for the intro to next week’s finale episode, which is already in the planning stages. I’m not claiming these numbers are absolutely flawless. I’m human and easily could have missed something here and there. But I think they’re close enough to draw reasonable conclusions.

Nate was the only player this season to be labeled a “leader” by another player (Matt did the honors to Jawan just before Matt got voted out). Nate ended up being the merge boot, finishing 11th. To date, I’ve tracked 120 such players who’ve been labeled as the “leader” and only six of them (Tom, Yul, J.T., Boston Rob, Mike, Ben and Kenzie) have won the game. I don’t think Matt had much influence on anyone’s voting decisions this season. After all, he got voted out at the first Tribal Council he attended. Just the same, putting the “leader” label on Nate may have stuck in Jawan’s head when he decided to flip on his Uli tribemates at the merge. I don’t think Nate did anything to create the impression he was leading. He in fact might have tried to position Savannah as the leader by telling Jason he needed to talk to her before making a voting decision. Just the same, Nate finished 11th, one spot lower than the average finish of others labeled the “leader.” Annie also wore a “leader” label, but I don’t count her because she called herself a “leader” in confessional.

I subjectively keep track of why each juror votes the way they do. For example, in S47, I think every vote Rachel got was because the juror respected the game she played. The same applied to Kyle’s vote for Sam. But in S46, I believe Tiffany’s vote for Kenzie was primarily based on the friendship they developed. Sure, Tiffanny probably respected Kenzie’s game too, I just don’t think that was her primary motivation. That being said, I think Sage and Kristina are the only potential jurors this season who’ll cast an emotional vote. They’re not gonna vote for someone they dislike. If she makes it to the end, Savannah’s not getting either of their votes unless another finalist creates a reason for them to dislike them more than Savannah.

Jake became the 48th player to leave the game due to sickness, injury or other personal trauma. He’s the 6th New Era player to leave for such reasons, joining Jackson (S42), Bruce (S44), Matt G. (S44), Randen (S46) and Kevin (S48). Yes, I know Kevin was voted out, but his separated shoulder played a big part in the voting decision. I still feel bad for Jake, but I also thank that snake for unintentionally eliminating the “earn the merge” nonsense this season.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that this season’s winner will be between 25 and 41 years old. So far, 43 of the 48 Survivor winners have been in that age range.

I keep track of the times the season’s best strategist faced the best challenge athlete in the finals. It hasn’t happened that much, but the strategist usually prevails. Rich beat Kelly Wiglesworth in S1: Borneo, Tina beat Colby in S2: The Australian Outback, and the best example is Yul beating Ozzy in S13: Cook Islands. The only exception was J.T.’s win over Stephen in S18: Tocantins. Rizo and Sophi B. are candidates for this season’s best strategist, and they could face Savannah and Steven who are candidates for the best athlete (although I currently list Sophie S. as the best overall challenge athlete this season). I also track when the best social game faces the best athlete, and when the best strategist faces the best social game. Those comparisons aren’t close. The social game has been dominant. In 13 total contests, the social game has won 12 times. The lone exception being Mike’s win over Carolyn in S30: Worlds Apart – a season that featured mostly bad social players.

For a long time, the perceived challenge beast was targeted first at the merge. That has only happened once in the New Era – when Kaleb was targeted in S45. In every other New Era season, the perceived beast (again, my subjective conclusion) was never the merge vote target (Nasser & Xander in S41, Jonathan in S42, Ryan in S43, Danny & Brandon in S44, Q & Hunter in S46, Sam & Kyle in S47, and David & Joe in S48). Granted, Hunter and Q were on the split squad team that won Immunity, but the best athlete on the losing team (Charlie) didn’t receive a vote. Nate certainly wasn’t considered a challenge beast this season.

Going hand in hand with being perceived as a beast is winning the first Individual Immunity Challenge. That winner has an 80% failure rate in winning the million in the New Era. With the exception of Gabler in S43 and Kyle in S48, everyone who has won the first Individual Immunity Challenge (Ricard S41, Tori S42, Brandon S44, Kellie S45, Maria S46, Genevieve & Teeny S47 and Sophie S. S49) has failed to win the million.

Unless it comes up in tonight’s episode, this season hasn’t had a Loved Ones Challenge yet. Just the same, nobody who has won the Loved Ones Reward in the New Era (Lindsay in S42, Noelle in S43, Frannie in S44, Emily in S45, Charlie in S46, Sam in S47 and Shauhin in S48) has gone on to win the million. Some of them (Emily, Charlie & Sam) didn’t learn it was a Loved Ones Reward until after they’d won it, but the Survivor Gods don’t seem to care. The lesson here is clear: Don’t win post-merge Challenges if Immunity isn’t on the line. It’s always better to be taken along on a Reward than to be the one leaving others behind.

So far in the New Era, only four people who’ve held an Idol (Maryanne, Gabler, Rachel & Kyle) have gone on to win the million, but Rachel and Kyle are the only ones who needed to play those Idols to save themselves. Gabler’s Idol was conditional – it was only good for two Tribal Councils. My take: Most Idols aren’t worth the effort required to find them, especially the first Idol available for each tribe. Secure your position in an alliance first, then search for an Idol after one has been played. You’ll probably have fewer hoops to jump through to get it. Find Kristina’s Idol. Alex, MC and Rizo had to work too hard for theirs, and all of them had witnesses around when they found those Idols. Of the four of them, Kristina had the best chance of keeping her Idol a secret. She just chose not to.

Kristina played her Idol for Steven, who didn’t need it, which means he wasn’t saved by her Idol play. To date, nobody who has been saved by an Idol played for them by someone else has gone on to win the million. So, I guess that’s good news for Steven’s chances. On a similar note, none of the Idols played this season (Alex’s, MC’s and Kristina’s) have returned to the game ... or at least nobody has found one yet. I’m guessing Producers have been getting enough “good TV” out of Rizo’s Idol bluffs, they haven’t seen the need to insert more Idols. Or maybe these players are just too hungry to go on Idol hunts. Who knows?

And finally, since Angelina’s S37 rant about the disparity between men and women Idol holders, we’ve seen 40 women finding an Idol, and 38 men. I’m counting Amulets that functioned as an Idol like Lindsay’s in S42 and Teeny, Andy & Caroline’s shared Amulet in S47. I’m not identifying a conspiracy theory here, I just find it interesting that since Idols were introduced in S11: Guatemala, the all-time totals entering this season were 111 Idols found by men and 57 by women.

So, there you have it. Some food for thought to chew on heading into next week’s finale. SOMETHING figures to happen with Rizo’s Idol this week. Either he plays it or Sophi B. steals it with her Knowledge Is Power Advantage. Steven’s Block A Vote expires at final 6 too, so he’s gonna use it. He has to tell Producers whose vote he’s blocking before they go to Tribal Council, so we in the audience may or may not know who gets blocked until that person heads into the voting booth. I want to see something I’ve never seen before: someone playing KIP correctly. This should be fun.

And away we go…

---

The “previously on” segments seemed much shorter than normal this week. Maybe they needed extra time for Tribal Council fireworks.

Wow, who knew Steven was so angry about losing Jawan? But he was ecstatic about booting Sophie S. She must have pissed off more players than I thought. Maybe Jawan really was a serious threat to win.

Rizo: “When everyone looked at me (when Probst asked for any Idols), that’s when I got nervous.” Good job, Rizo, now you’ve told everyone how to make you nervous. But he WAS pulling a Tony-esque bluff but in reverse. Tony claimed his Overpowered Idol was good until final 4 when it actually expired at final 5.

Sophi B.: “I don’t think I could sit next to Rizo and Savannah and beat them. That’s a recipe for 3rd place, and I didn’t come here for 3rd place.” Damn right, girl. Guarantee your spot. Take Rizo’s Idol tonight if you don’t win Immunity.

Don’t do it Sophi. Don’t tell anyone you’ve got the KIP. Having that info is a great way for Steven, Kristina or Sage to save themselves by exposing your secret.

This looks like a massive Challenge. If Immunity isn’t up for grabs, I say lose it. This one has “Loved Ones” written all over it. Sophi B. already looks like she knows she’s got no shot at this one. Probst also mentioned Margaritas. Apparently, nobody who has had a Margarita has won the game. Somebody mentioned that in the comments on my column last season.

Yep, they’re playing for letters from home. Tank this one at all costs.

Steven has a lead, but nobody looks like they’re tanking it ... oh wait, Rizo was in second place and now he’s fallen into last place with a huge smile on his face. My sandbagging radar is at full volume now.

Then again, Rizo’s first toss bounces off the target. I think he fell behind on purpose but gave it a shot when he caught up.

Savannah wins it. History says she probably just lost the game. She has already angered Kristina and Sage, and she’s gonna anger at least one more potential juror. She might permanently lose their possible jury votes now. She picks Rizo, which wasn’t a surprise, but then she picks Sophi B. I wonder how angry Steven will be?

Rizo: “Cheers to the final 3!” There can’t be a more clear message Sophi B. Rizo thinks he can beat you.

Sophi B: “Winning the loved ones Reward is hurting them twice. You’re not feeding them, and you’re keeping them from reading their letters. If I wasn’t chosen, I would have been really upset.” You’re preaching to the choir, sista!

Steven tells Sage and Kristina he’s got a Block A Vote. Now he has given them the chance to save themselves by warning Rizo, Sophi B. or Savannah. Why not just agree on Savannah as the target without giving away that info?

But now Sophi wants to go to the final 3 with Rizo and Savannah, and she doubles down on the bad move by telling Rizo and Savannah about her KIP. Now this can blow up Sophi’s game when she realizes she can’t steal Steven’s Advantage. I’m so disappointed. It looks like I won’t get to see a successful KIP play yet. I bet every regular reader of “Screaming at the Screen” can hear me groaning.

Now I’m thinking either Savannah or Sophi B. is a goner. If Savannah wins Immunity, goodbye Sophi B.

Rizo’s brother didn’t know he was playing Survivor? I know CBS loves to enforce their confidentiality clauses, but they can’t even tell immediate family?

I’m hoping Sophi B.’s letter says “Take Rizo’s Idol no matter how much you like him.”

I can’t remember the last time I saw a rat on Survivor. Did the editors make them all purple for a long time? I’d freak out if a rat ran into my foot too.

Steven “It all depends on who wins Immunity today.” You got that right my man.

Ahh, the foot balance thingy. Dee killed this challenge in S45, then won the game. The question I have is where do you put your dominant foot – on the balance beam or on the ground? I go for the control and put my stronger foot on the beam. This one is wide open.

Probst “Dee won this challenge and went on to win the season.” I just said that, dude. Try to keep up.

Sage, Steven and Rizo put their left foot on the beam. But I don’t know if any of them are left-handed.

Of course, this one comes down to Sage vs Savannah.

Sage “I can save us.” Is she gonna reveal Steven’s secret?

Savannah is smart for rejecting Sage’s attempt to negotiate. She has zero reason to trust Sage no matter what she promises. I remember Andrea tried to talk Brenda out of a challenge win in S26: Caramoan. Brenda didn’t go for it, but Andrea’s win ended up putting an Idol in her hands, and she started to target Brenda for her strong challenge performance.

Sage is listing people she loves faster than Gabler did in S43.

Savannah wins, and Sophi B. is probably gone ... unless Rizo plays his Idol for her.

Interesting. Everyone is more sad for Sage than they are happy for Savannah.

Steven confirms to Rizo that he’s gonna go after Sophi B. Rizo won’t find out Sophi B. can’t steal Steven’s Advantage until after she tries to take it. That might force his hand if he believes the votes are piled on her.

Will Rizo be able to flip Sage against Steven? That would be huge.

But Sage tells Kristina she wants Steven out. That could cue Kristina to warn Steven, who’d then block Sage’s vote. Yet another reason Steven should have kept his mouth shut about his Advantage.

Steven: “Kristina is a sloppy player. Her game is like spaghetti. She’s eating with her hands while the rest of us are cutting with knives and forks. When she says things like that, it makes me question her loyalty. Are you planning on blindsiding me, or was that an unfortunate slipup because you have a hard time filtering your thoughts?” I like that spaghetti metaphor. I’m one of the few who cuts his spaghetti. Steven perfectly explained why Kristina has no chance of winning.

But Rizo is pumped about pulling off yet another Idol bluff. That’s bad news for Sophi B.

Steven is blocking Savannah’s vote. She won’t be able to warn Rizo or Sophi. This game swings on whether or not Rizo plays his Idol for Sophi B.

Sophi B. “I think my grandmother would want me to take Rizo’s Idol.” Listen to your grandmother. That’s the only way to guarantee your safety. You’ve been told people are writing down your name. Do it, Sophi, DO IT!

I just scared my dog again when I yelled that. Sorry, Annie.

We’re heading to Tribal Council with 20 minutes left. I knew the “previously on” was shorter for a reason. This is gonna be fun.

Rizo saving Sophi B. would really improve his chances of winning. If Sophi B. is in the finals with him, he can say “The only reason you’re here is because of me.” How does Sophi B. rebut that comment?

Sophi B. “It’s obvious I’m on the chopping block today.” That’s why you MUST take Rizo’s Idol.

I wonder if Savannah can tell Rizo she couldn’t vote after she returns from the booth? When she goes up to vote could be a factor too. If she goes up first, that gives her side a huge edge. If she goes up last, her side has already voted.

Sophi B. makes her move before Kristina can go vote. But Steven is smiling because he knows it won’t work on him.

Sophi is wrong, and she’s crushed. Now it’s up to Rizo to save her. Jawan was really happy when Steven said “Nope.”

The two players on the block have a name that beings with S, and we see Kristina writing an S.

Rizo: “They cooked my girl Sophi B. I have to play my Idol. I’m happy for Sophi B., and Rizo may have just saved all them.

Savannah tells Rizo her vote was blocked. I wonder if she was allowed to volunteer that info. If she wasn’t, Rizo was smart for confirming their votes first.

Rizo makes another show of it with his Idol, and likely just lost Sophi B.’s jury vote. But telling the Jury he chose himself over Sophi B. might be the move they respect. Once again, he owned the moment at Tribal Council.

Shocker! Sage voted for Steven! What a reversal! Now I think Sage has no shot at Steven’s vote.

The burning question I have now is did Sage make up her own mind, or did Rizo convince her to flip? I think this was Sage’s call but I’ll wait for the review from the booth.

Jawan was definitely unhappy with this twist. Could that cost Sage his jury vote if she’s in the finals?

And the booth speaks up immediately. Kristina also voted for Steven. I have no doubt Sage convinced her to do it.

---

Recap

I didn’t see this coming. Sophi B. fell on her face a little. I wonder how much the jurors will blast her for not taking Rizo’s Idol? Her chances of winning took a big hit with this failed move.

Rizo looks a lot smarter for pulling off another Idol bluff. Everyone knows he’s got a golden ticket for the final 4 now. But he might come off looking like a jerk for not saving Sophi B., a player he could probably beat straight up anyway. I don’t think he knew Sage and Kristina were voting for Steven. He was too surprised. But I’m not sure Sage’s move will be respected. She made her path to the finals harder, not easier.

I’ll admit I was hoping Rizo would save Sophi B., but he made the right decision in putting his game first.

Who knows what Kristina was thinking. While on one hand, she probably can’t beat Steven, but she’s gonna have a hard time beating Rizo, Savannah and Sophi B. too. And when Sage takes credit for the Steven boot, that will only reinforce Kristina’s image as a follower. Her best chance in the finals is against Sophi B. and Sage, but I don’t see how she can pull that off. The loyalty between Rizo, Savannah and Sophi B. probably means Kristina’s best shot at the finals is winning the fire challenge, which seems very unlikely.

Probst mentioned Savannah could tie a record with another Immunity win. Kelly Wiglesworth (S1: Borneo), Jenna Morasca (S6: The Amazon), Chrissy (S35: HHH), and Rachel (S47) all won 4 Individual Immunity Challenges. Two wins sets a new women’s record, and ties the all-time single season record of 5 set by Colby and tied by Ozzy, Tom, Pilot Terry, Mike, and Brad Culpepper.

So, the Block A Vote Advantage also fizzled. I don’t think it failed because Steven played it incorrectly. It failed because everyone knew he had SOMETHING and could prepare for the possibilities. Yet another reason never to get on the boat. An Advantage everyone knows you have, even if they don’t know specifically what it is, can more likely be a disadvantage. If Rizo’s alliance doesn’t know Steven is holding anything, they might not even try to flip Sage.

I’m gonna take a season off from handicapping the Jury. I’m so bad at it anyway. But if you want to share your thought on it in the comments, I’m more than happy to participate.

What do you think of Sophi B. and Rizo’s moves? Does Savannah have a solid shot of winning, or has her “mean girl” tendencies already killed her chances? How does Sophi B. recover? Is Rizo the overwhelming favorite considering he has sucked at most of the challenges and might have to make a fire to get into the finals? Who do you think is most likely to end up in the fire challenge? Let me know in the comments.