First, a couple of notes from my rewatch of the last episode. After Alex was voted out, I wrote “No, I don’t think Rizo is a ballsy player. I think he got info that told him his plan worked. If he had any question about how Jawan and Sage were voting, he’d have played his Idol. I think he got tipped off by Sophie S.” When Alex grabbed his torch, he asked “Do you guys all talk? What is this?” which prompted Sophi B. to lean back and shake hands with Jawan. That told me Sophi B. and Jawan were congratulating each other on the plan that was executed to perfection. The two of them absolutely knew how each other were voting, which means Rizo, Savannah and Sophie S. also knew how Jawan and Sage were voting. So, I was partially right. Rizo did NOT pull off a gutsy move in holding on to his Idol. He knew he wouldn’t have to use it because 6 votes were going on Alex. But he does deserve props for pulling Sophie S. to his side and turning Jawan and Sage against Alex.

And in a deleted scene, we saw how Rizo and Kristina picked the teams at the Reward Challenge. Rizo won a Rock, Paper, Scissors to get the first pick and took Jawan, saying “I’m hoping we’re gonna break the Reward curse ... picking Jawan is me thinking I can pull it out and bring that man some food.” A reluctant Jawan appreciated the support Rizo showed him. Then Kristina picked Sophie S., saying “We need to build more trust ... After the low last night, we need to recalibrate.” But Sophie’s reaction wasn’t quite the same. In confessional, Sophie S. said “Kristina chose me first in the schoolyard pick supposedly to make amends and rebuild trust with me. That’s just funny because I’m also good at challenges. I’m helping you out, girl. Let’s not get it twisted.” The picks in order: Rizo: Jawan, Sage, then Steven. Kristina: Sophie S., Alex, then Savannah.

My take here is that all of Rizo’s picks were game-strategic instead of challenge-strategic. He needed to convince Jawan and Sage to vote for Alex, so he wanted to keep them close, win or lose. Kristina’s first pick was game strategic too. When Rizo picked Sage, Alex fell in Kristina’s lap. Alex is probably the best challenge performer among them all. His ring tossing won it for his team. But in the bigger picture, Rizo’s picks did more good for his overall game than Kristina’s did for hers.

The difference to me came when they explained their picks. Kristina was transparent about her need/desire to lure Sophie S.’s vote back to her side. Sophie S.’s confessional (and her eventual vote) reveals she wasn’t moved. But Rizo kept his true intentions more stealth. He appealed to Jawan’s emotions. He knew what would motivate Jawan to his side. Jawan seemed to believe Rizo’s sole motivation was to get Jawan some food. Jawan and Sage didn’t seem to notice Rizo was keeping them close. Neither one seemed suspicious when Rizo picked Sage over Alex and Steven. In fact, in confessional, Steven said “I wanted to be on Rizo’s team because you just want to go where the confidence is at. Half the time with these challenges, it’s all mindset – who wants it the most. And Rizo wanted it so bad. I want to bring this one home for Jawan.” So, if I’m right about Rizo’s actual agenda, he did an excellent job of concealing it. That means he’ll be able to do it again.

I’ll also add that both Rizo and Kristina were smart in NOT picking their closest allies in Sophi B., Savannah and Steven. It’s very often better to leave someone you trust behind to keep an eye on those you don’t trust while you’re separated.

I keep a list of best winner’s moves (Natalie Anderson “Did you vote for who I told you, Jaclyn?” Rachel checking reactions after playing her Shot in the Dark). I usually update this list after each season has ended. I haven’t been spoiled on anything, but if Rizo goes on to win this season, I might put “Turning Jawan against Alex” as his best move. Rizo’s alliance has enough trinkets to take over the game at the next vote, but this move with Alex is what set it all up.

Will Jawan notice Rizo’s puppet strings attached to his shoulders? Will he continue to dance to Rizo’s tune while still believing he’s calling the shots? Will Sage step up, cut those strings and finally push a vote where SHE wants it to go? Is it too late to matter since Rizo’s alliance has so many trinkets? Let’s find out.

And away we go…

---

Right off the bat, we’re reminded that Sage knows about Kristina’s Idol. Gee, I wonder how Sophi B. will find out about it?

Sophi B. is the first to throw out Steven’s name as the next boot, but she covers her tracks well by playing nice to Steven’s face. I wonder if he’s buying it? If Steven goes, Sophi B. could own this move. Final 8 is probably a good time to start publicly owning your game ... if you can avoid being targeted immediately afterwards like Jesse in S43.

Sage tells Jawan about Kristina’s Idol. Here’s the countdown to Jawan telling Rizo about that Idol. 15…14…13…

And immediately, Jawan (in confessional) is talking about how important it is to get rid of Kristina’s Idol. Instant backfire.

Kristina feels betrayed by Sophie S.? When exactly did Kristina make Sophie S. feel included?

Kristina wants to play her Idol for Steven? Uhh, Kristina, what exactly is your follow-up move if that plan works? You’re still in the minority even if the vote bounces back on Rizo and he leaves with his Idol. It would be smarter to identify and recruit whoever is on the bottom of Rizo’s alliance. You need a majority of 4 at the final 7. You need Jawan and Sage.

We’ve seen this challenge several times, especially in the New Era. I remember Bhanu had to go back and cross over the crates again in S46. But those pole thingys with the nets are new.

Damn, Kristina is really having a breakdown. I think Probst handled it well though. He got her to say something positive without showing favoritism.

4 vs 4. Will they do another schoolyard pick? Yes, and once again we don’t get to see the picks. I wonder if Captain Jawan picked Rizo first? It’s a safe bet Sophi B. picked Sophie S. first.

I remember in season’s past, you’d have to start over if any part of your body hit the water while crossing the balance beam.

Interesting. Sophie S. and Jawan used the masks, but Rizo, Sophi B. and Savannah didn’t.

Hmm ... Are we gonna get another “Keep crossing that beam!” sequence with Kristina just like we saw with Cirie in S34: Game Changers.

Savannah: “Kristina, do it for your fucking mom!” I guess you could call that encouraging.

Probst: “I’ve never seen anything like that.” Uhh, yes you have. In S34: Game Changers. He “encouraged” Cirie to try that beam something like 23 times.

The blue team wins. Will anyone offer to switch with Kristina? Especially since she gave one up for Jawan last time? Nope.

Jawan caught a fish, and we got 1 minute and 15 seconds of him trying? I’d rather see the schoolyard picks.

And speaking of picks, Sage, you’re allowed to take the toothpick out of the burger before you bite into it.

Sophie S. shares a hammock with Sage. Will Sage spill the Idol info again? Nope. But Sophie S. also doesn’t know about Savannah’s Extra Vote or Sophi B.’s Knowledge Is Power. Now I’m wondering if Sophie S.’s plan gets leaked and she gets clipped instead of Steven.

We get 1 minute and 20 seconds of the “Three Boys on A Bench” song? I’d rather see the schoolyard picks. But at least the song was fun.

Jawan still looks like he’s fully Team Rizo to me.

Savannah in confessional: “Steven is my biggest competition in these challenges.” Say what? Savannah, may I introduce you to Sophie S., who has already beaten you once.

Look at Sage trying to cut those puppet strings.

Savannah in confessional: “Right now we (Jawan and Sage) have the same agenda.” Sage in confessional “No.” I LOVED that transition.

Sophie S. “It feels like I’m picking who’s gonna go home.” Yeah, it’s feeling more and more like Sophie S. is gonna hold both sides at bay and get herself voted out like Christy in S6: The Amazon, Dolly is S9: Vanuatu ... and Penner in S25: Philippines, and Aubry in S32: Kaoh Rong ... Sophie S. needs to pick a side and stick with it.

At the Immunity Challenge, Sophi B. speaks for all Survivor fans “Oh God, the rice.” I’m glad nobody cared about it. I think this makes two seasons in a row.

This looks like an entirely new Immunity Challenge. to US Survivor.

I don’t know why, but I’m pulling for Savannah to pull out another win. Maybe it’s because that would make everyone else scramble to form a new plan knowing she and Rizo are safe. I suppose a win for Steven could complicate things too.

But Sophie S. pulls it out. Does Savannah know who she is yet?

I don’t want to do the math in my head while the show is on, but I wonder how Savannah’s Extra Vote figures into this. I guess the other side would have to split their votes? Or maybe Rizo plays his Idol for Savannah? Jawan’s vote might decide the whole thing.

Sage is really putting the hard sale on Jawan to boot Savannah. Rizo’s BS meter probably faces its biggest test now. Can he get an accurate read on Jawan?

Sage spills the info about Kristina’s Idol to Sophie S. Now Sophie S. has the power. And right away Sophie S. uses it. Good work, Sophie, you picked a side.

Now Sophi B. knows about Kristina’s Idol too. This Tribal Council could be really fun. I want to see all the trinkets come out tonight. How about Sophi B. taking Kristina’s Idol and giving it to Savannah. That would increase Sophi B.’s Jury profile. She could say “The only reason Savannah is still in the game is because I saved her.”

I loved how Savannah point blank asked Kristina “Who are you voting for?” Kristina’s complete lack of poker face just killed her chances tonight.

I’m so proud of Sophi B. for keeping her mouth shut about her KIP Advantage. I want it to work so badly too. And not just because it would validate my two theories 1) Never tell anyone you’ve got an Advantage or Idol, and 2) And Advantage or Idol is immediately weakened as soon as somebody knows about it. Sophi B.’s KIP is infinitely more powerful right now than either one of the Idols.

Rizo: “This is where the game is won or lost.” I disagree with that. Tribal Council is theater. The game is won or lost in camp when you’re earning or losing trust.

Kristina: “I don’t know what the plan is.” That’s the WORST thing you could ever say at Tribal Council. You’re telling your jurors why you shouldn’t win.

Steven: “I’m fighting every day.” That’s a much better statement to make in front of the Jury.

Irony: Savannah, who has a bad poker face, is talking about how well she can read someone’s poker face. Unrelated side note. I’m totally fixated on that gap in her left eyebrow. I want to fill it in.

Savannah knows Jawan is talking about her when he says someone is gonna be blindsided, and she loves it.

The cannons are being loaded.

They’re voting. The fuses are being lit.

Boom! Kristina plays her Idol for Steven. Nobody looks surprised. Why didn’t Sophi B. take it?

Jawan pats Rizo’s knee. My interpretation “Play your Idol, dude.”

Boom! Rizo plays his Idol for Savannah. And Sage instantly shows her cards.

Boom! But it’s a phony Idol! Did Rizo just pull a Rachel and clock everyone’s faces? Did Rizo just pull a Tony Vlachos? If Rizo missed Sage’s reaction the first time, he’s sure to see her smiling now.

Jawan: “Hold up, playa! Play the real thing!” If Rizo didn’t know Jawan had turned on him, he’s certain to know now. The jurors look impressed too.

Boom! Rizo kept his Idol AGAIN!

Boom boom, boom, boom 5 votes on Jawan!

Rizo: “You flipped on me once, I wasn’t gonna let it happen again.” That could be a game-winning statement, and the Jury knows it. Rizo owned the moment, even though it was Savannah’s idea to go after one of the flippers, Sophi B.’s idea to let Sophie S. pick the target, and of course, Sophie S.’s choice on Jawan.

But the jurors knew.

And so, the theme of Sage’s season continues: “I can’t get any votes pushed through.”

I wonder why Sophie S. thought she had no chance of beating Jawan?

This Tribal Council was VERY fun! And on top of it, Jawan took Rizo’s torch. The only way it could have been better would be if he took Savannah’s torch.

But what was with Steven’s crossed-out vote? Did he forget Shannon is already gone? Did he think he was in S41 and voting for Shantel? In the “Meaningless Trivia” section, this is the 3rd crossed out vote in U.S. Survivor history, following Aubry (S32: Kaoh Rong), Karla (S43) and Carolyn (S44).

And why are these people so bad at counting the votes? Nobody noticed that Savannah didn’t vote when MC left, and Steven, Sage and Kristina totally missed there were nine votes tonight.

---

Recap

After rewatching it once, I noticed Rizo was holding his real Idol when Probst asked if anyone wanted to play anything.

I’m on the fence with Sophi B. I’ve liked her game play all season, but tonight was a head scratcher. On one hand, she blew a prime opportunity to cripple the opposition by taking Kristina’s Idol. Now that Idol could return and she won’t know where it is. But on the other hand, if she wants to turn on Rizo, she can cripple his game by taking his Idol. Again, she needs to plan her follow-up move now instead of waiting until her Idol play works. Rizo absolutely planned how to own this moment in front of the Jury, and keep his Idol.

Rizo stuck his head up big time in this episode. He’s got to be the frontrunner in everyone’s eyes now. I think he’s savvy enough to dodge the bullets he knows about.

I think Sage and Kristina both killed their chances of winning tonight. They both looked way too shocked and devastated in front of the Jury, and both told Jawan they had no idea about the vote as he left. Guess what he’s gonna tell the other jurors? Kristina looked completely fooled into playing her Idol, and it looks worse because everyone knows how much she failed to flush Rizo’s Idol. And everyone knows how Sage has completely failed to sway any votes no matter how hard she pushed. The work the two of them would have to do to put themselves ahead of anyone else left in the game is too great. They’d need someone else to fall apart under Jury questioning. Everyone left is too good at keeping their cool under pressure.

My question now is who is gonna turn on Rizo first – Sophi B. or Savannah? After tonight, Savannah has to know Rizo’s chances of winning greatly improved. Is she overconfident? Does she still think she ca beat him? If she doesn’t, she needs to start planning his demise now.

`What do you think? Did Sophi B. just miss a golden opportunity to put herself in a winning position? Is Rizo the clear frontrunner now? Did he stick his head up too early? What’s the best move for Sophie S. now? What should Sage or Kristina do now? Let me know in the comments.