It’s been a week, and my head is still spinning after last week’s Tribal Council. I’m still blown away that Cedrek would keep Sai in the game after trying to vote her out twice. As volatile as she is, there’s no way she’s gonna forget that. And Cedrek did it because he thinks Sai and Mary will be able to work together? I say “A.G. H.” Ain’t Gon’ Happen! Even if they did work together, they’d be working against CEDREK! How could he not see that? Once he wrote Sai’s name down, there should have been no turning back. I don’t even think he could get Sai’s jury vote if he got that far.

But I want to be fair. As badly as I think Sai has been playing, I have to give her props for figuring out a way to keep herself in the game. It’s almost impossible to win Survivor if you can’t earn trust quickly. Without a doubt, Sai has done that. She earned Cedrek’s trust and figured out WHY he makes decisions. That paid off at Tribal Council when her emotional pitch ultimately changed Cedrek’s mind. Sai convinced Cedrek to keep a player who is certain to turn on him instead of one who was much more committed to him. Sai is way too aggressive and impulsive, but when one player convinces another to make a move that is so bad for themselves, I have a term for that – Cirie-level manipulation.

I’m in no way saying Sai is playing like Cirie. After all, this vote swung on Mary’s decision to play her Shot in the Dark. If Mary votes, Sai is gone. Also, Cedrek did vote for her twice. Sai threw three interceptions before connecting on that Hail Mary pass.

So, what next?

I was actually disappointed when I learned there would be a swap this week. Mary proved she’s got some strategic chops too. Playing dead last week put enough doubt in everyone’s mind that Sai had no idea how to vote when she entered the booth. But as effective as Mary’s play was, it wasn’t good enough to stop a majority from writing her name down. She needed the lucky Shot in the Dark to save her. Just the same, I wanted to see what Mary came up with to convince Cedrek to keep her over Sai.

But with a swap coming this week, we probably won’t get that payoff unless all 3 of them end up on the same tribe. That would be interesting too. Assuming they swap to three 5-member tribes, Sai, Mary and Cedrek would have the majority. Would they actually vote together to maintain a majority even though Sai and Mary would take dead aim at each other at their first chance? Or would one of them try to rally their 2 new tribemates against the other? That could be very fun. Cedrek of course would be caught in the middle again. The other intriguing possibility comes from Lagi. How do Joe and Eva handle it if they’re separated? Suppose Eva and Star end up together? In a Secret Scene, we found out that Shauhin can’t stand Star’s high volume marathon stories, especially when they interrupt his meditation. Does he take dead aim at Star if they’re swapped together?

The Civa tribe isn’t as interesting to me because they all like each other and are more likely to stick together no matter how they’re swapped. We haven’t seen any signs that any of them find anyone else annoying or untrustworthy. Every Civa member figures to have someone watching their back. The only way one of them is leaving is if they’re outnumbered by Lagi members.

I wrote the above part of this intro over the weekend. Since then, CBS ran promos that showed the new swapped tribes. So, I’ll say this much. The new Civa tribe is by far the physically weakest with Cedrek, Sai, Bianca, Mitch and Chrissy. Bianca doesn’t have a vote, and Mitch has a Block-A-Vote. They’re probably gonna go to Tribal Council, so the question is what does Bianca do? Does she trust anyone enough to admit she doesn’t have a vote? If she tells Mitch or Chrissy, it becomes a no-brainer for Mitch to block either Cedrek or Sai’s vote. But since Bianca probably wants to reduce the Civa numbers, she’d probably want to work with Cedrek and Sai, right? But coming clean to them could backfire on Bianca too. Just like Justin last week, Bianca shouldn’t want anyone to know she’s a sitting duck. So, it might come down to who Mitch wants to block from voting. Blocking Cedrek or Sai gives him the advantage. But will he do that? Let’s find out.

And away we go…

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Hmm…there’s a lot of Thomas in the “previously on” segment. Oh wait, we’re getting reminders of everyone’s advantages.

I still say there’s no way Mary and Sai will work together, even if they’re swapped to the same tribe.

Sai: “Cedrek saved my life, but he also put my life on the line. Why am I grateful you got me out of something that you put me into?” Like I said, Sai is never gonna forget that.

Mary: “I can tell when Sai has her ‘Game eyes” on.” I call that a BS Meter.

Nope, I’m still not buying it. I won’t buy it until they actually vote together.

We’ve seen several different types of Tribe Swaps. The first one in Africa asked tribes to “send their three best” to a meeting. Those players switched tribes. We’ve seen tribes all stand on separate logs then pull their new buffs out from underneath (Marquesas, Panama). We’ve seen “captains” chosen at random, followed by a schoolyard pick (Vanuatu, Fiji, Nicaragua). We’ve seen “not so random” swaps when all the players pull buffs from a pre-stacked tube or bowl (All-Stars, Cagayan, Worlds Apart, Kaoh Rong). We’ve had more random buff picks when Probst pulls out one tray of buffs for men and another for women (Cook Islands, Cambodia, Millennials vs Gen X, HHH, Edge of Extinction). Twice, everyone broke a colored egg on their clothes (One World, Caramoan). And in the New Era, we’ve seen the three people sent on a Journey switch tribes (44).

Joe looks more worried about this swap than Eva is.

Sai: “I’m hoping we can hit the middle, and the other tribes start eating each other alive, and we get to watch it.” Statements like this are why Sai is a horrible alliance partner. It’s a decent plan, but not when you tell everyone what it is. She just exposed the strategy for anyone who aligns with her. Sai keeps inventing reasons for me to say she’s playing badly.

This swap looks completely random. One tray of buffs for everyone. There’s not even a guarantee of gender balance.

Eva and Joe looking so upset about being separated is bad strategy. They need better poker faces.

Yeah, I think the new Civa is doomed in a physical challenge.

So the only strong duo to remain intact is Kyle & Kamilla. The duos of Joe & Eva, Charity & Mitch, Thomas & Bianca and David & Chrissy were all separated. I like how things shook out. Everyone has to adjust their strategy now.

Mary apologizes to New Vula about their crappy camp, then Sai laughs at them. Sai keeps giving me reasons to say she’s playing badly. Is there an echo in here?

This week’s Survivor 50 fan vote isn’t as interesting as the first one. It’s a choice for the final 4 Immunity Challenge. Personally, I’d like to see something totally new. Pick your choices here.

Wow, it didn’t take long for Eva to sell Star down the river. What are the odds that will get back to Star? But she shouldn’t have told David she’s close to Joe and Shauhin. Now David knows who to go after first at the merge. This could easily backfire on Eva. It’s better to remove the well-connected player (Eva) than the one on the outs (Star).

Just the same, Star was a fool for walking away from the majority so early. She keeps making that same mistake.

Mitch and Chrissy haven’t had one strategic conversation in seven days? That’s bad game play by both of them. At a minimum, you should be trying to fool everyone on your tribe into thinking you’re cool with them.

Right off the bat, Sai tells Bianca to stay away from Cedrek. The fallout has already begun. Cedrek should have kept Justin.

There’s a pretty strong wind blowing through the trees behind Thomas, but his shirt isn’t moving at all. That’s a hallmark of a green-screened confessional. Joe’s shirt was flapping hard in the wind in his confessional.

Hmmm ... Kamilla has an Extra Vote, Kyle has an Idol and Thomas has a Steal A Vote. It could be interesting if they go to Tribal Council.

Kamilla’s “I’m on the bottom” lie was pretty strong, and Kyle leaned into it immediately. These two are good together. Shauhin totally bought it. I think Joe did too. I LOVE getting info in flashback like this, and I’m glad Kamilla figured out how to use it to her advantage!

But Shauhin totally kills the element of surprise and confronts Thomas about it. Thomas did a decent job of covering his tracks.

Good for Cedrek for figuring out how to connect with Mitch, but he needs to keep an eye on Sai. He keeps saying “Sai and I have loyalty” while Sai keeps throwing him under the bus.

Chrissy keeps saying “It’s an easy vote (to remove Bianca).” That’s often a Survivor kiss of death statement. I’ve been hoping to see an older woman finally win Survivor. It doesn’t look like Chrissy has the killer instinct. She’s acting more like a follower.

I’ll admit it. I didn’t care for David’s arrogance at the start of the season, but he’s starting to wear me down. There’s a lot of sincerity to him, and he’s been getting pretty good reads on everyone too.

Mary: “David is our provider, he’s been taking care of us. I’ll be your sister, David. Take care of me, please.” Charity: “David is ‘Mr. Loyal’ and ‘all for one.’ (He’s) someone I can just tell what to do, and he’s gonna do it.” This reminds me of when Kelley Wentworth said the same thing about Joey Amazing in Cambodia – “Joe is the Cabana boy of this tribe. He’s just fulfilling all my needs. Thanks Joe. I’m so appreciative of everything Joe does around camp, but there’s no way I’m taking that guy to the end.” But David is a lot smarter than Joey Amazing (aka “the bad Joe”) was. David is already on to Charity’s game.

The problem with David wanting Charity out is that she trusts him. She’s not working against him. If he removes her too soon, he might not be able to have the numbers at the merge. He needs a Lagi member gone. Since Star hasn’t freed the Idol yet, she should be his first target.

We saw most of this challenge in 46 and 47. Only the puzzle at the end is different. The sandbag tossers have the spotlight roles.

Thomas and Kamilla are in the worst spot for moving that cube. They’re asking to get hit. Last season, Teeny was guiding it from the side.

Kamilla: “I can see it all (the puzzle) from here right now. You can do it right here in front of me.” She’s inventing a spotlight role for herself by directing the puzzle effort.

Lagi and Civa pull out the win. Mary, Sai and Cedrek get their first night off. They always say it – “The puzzle is the great equalizer.” Did Kamilla just talk herself out of the game by bragging about her puzzle talent?

Thomas is in a tough spot now. The ex-Lagi could control Tribal Council with Thomas’s Steal A Vote, but he’d have to tell Joe and Shauhin about how he lied to them. I say keep your mouth shut about it. It’s better to ask forgiveness than ask for permission. The rules say he has to play it when Probst says, “It’s time to vote.” Priority #1 for Thomas should be to do everything he can to guarantee he’s here tomorrow to ask for forgiveness. Steal Kamilla or Kyle’s vote.

And as soon as they return to camp, Kamilla apologizes for causing the loss. What’s with all the apologies this season? Stephanie, Cedrek and now Kamilla have all done it. If Kamilla and Kyle can figure out who the California Girls are voting for, they can control the vote with Kyle’s Idol. Kamilla’s Extra Vote can only force a tie if the three other guys vote together.

If the Lagi 3 are together, they should split their votes. They’ll have the numbers on a tiebreaker revote.

Thomas in confessional: “Do I use my Steal A Vote to save my own butt?” YES!!!!

Why does Kamilla feel the need to give her Extra Vote to Kyle? She can just use it herself. She’s better off having Kyle play his Idol. Is she trying to help Kyle in case she gets voted out?

If Kyle was dumb enough to hide his Idol in his bag, he deserves to be voted out. He got totally lucky they didn’t find it in his shoe. It looks like he left his shoes by the shelter too.

Kamilla comes right out of the gate and publicly throws Kyle under the bus at Tribal Council. She might be laying it on a little thick.

Kamilla actually sheds some tears, and I think they’re sincere. If she’s acting, she’s REALLY good.

Probst: “It’s time to vote.” Thomas doesn’t play his Steal A Vote. As Q would say “Big mistake.”

Kyle had Kamilla’s Extra Vote with him in the booth. Why would he use it? Does he think the Lagi 3 are splitting their votes?

Kyle plays his Idol. This makes the 14th pre-merge Idol play including Sai’s earlier this season. And he covers his tracks with Kamilla by referencing the six players from Survivor 46 who got voted out while holding an Idol.

And Kamilla tries to cover her tracks by acting shocked Thomas is leaving. She could have done that better by voting for Kyle herself. They know she voted for Thomas now. Only 5 votes shown. Kyle still has that Extra Vote.

Kamilla is very good at this game. That was Cirie-level manipulation. Thomas got 46’d – voted out with an Advantage in his pocket.

I guess we won’t be able to catch any out of sequence editing by seeing how the scar on Thomas’ eye looks.

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Recap

Major props to Kamilla. She immediately put Thomas in the spotlight of suspicion by exposing the Journey info. Even though they stuck with Thomas, she had both Joe and Shauhin suspicious of him.

And she’s still in a great position because unless Joe or Shauhin find a re-hidden Idol. We already saw a shot of a wrapped-up parchment at Vula camp.

And what are the odds that Kyle’s Idol will be rehidden at Vula camp? How interesting would it be if both Idols are found?

I was very impressed with Kamilla tonight, and slightly less impressed with Kyle. What do you think of their play? Was it worthy of being called Cirie-level?

What about the other tribes? Is it a question of when (not if) Sai will vote against Cedrek? Are David’s strategic chops better than advertised? Will Mitch and Chrissy’s inability to connect spell their doom? What’s the best move for Bianca, especially since Thomas is gone now? How should Joe and Shauhin adjust? Let me know in the comments.