Last week, Mitch found himself in a pivotal position multiple times. With eight people left, the four on the bottom had the ability to affect a power shift if they united against the alliance of four (Joe, Eva, Shauhin and Kyle). Mitch didn’t realize it, but he had the power to swing this vote in either direction if he could convince both sides he was firmly with them. Ultimately, Mitch didn’t trust Star or Mary enough to vote with them. However, his lack of foresight meant he didn’t have to trust them completely to affect the vote. Because of this, I labeled Mitch an “Indecisive Swing Vote.” But he actually played it correctly once.

First, Joe, Shauhin and Mitch had this chat:

Joe: “Hey, I was thinking about it. If you guys are still on board, let’s get to six. That helps everybody.”

Mitch: “1,000%.”

Shauhin: “I’m with you, bro.”

Joe: “We do Star or Mary to keep it safe.”

Shauhin: “If you want to do that, I’m down to do that.”

Joe: “This is a group.”

Mitch: “Truly.”

Mitch only said two words, but those words had Joe and Shauhin confident Mitch was with them. They didn’t see the need to make other plans.

But later, Mitch had this talk with Star:

Star: “What do you think? Where is your head in all this?”

Mitch: “I don’t know right now.”

Star: “If Joe doesn’t win, we’re trying to do the tie, the two-way tie thing against them four. Once we’re at a two-way tie, we think once we re-vote we can get somebody to flip. Somebody will flip because they don’t want to go to rocks.”

Star’s pitch was pretty weak. Nobody wants to go to rocks. But Mitch wouldn’t even pretend to consider it, which of course told Star to make plans that didn’t include Mitch.

Then after being left behind on the reward trip, Mitch talked with Mary:

Mitch: “I get it. It’s a game and Kyle had to make a good move for himself. But that was tough to watch.” (Mary turns to see Joe walking away).

Mary: “Mitch, are you willing to go to rocks? (Mitch doesn’t answer) Because right now, you’re at the bottom of that alliance, or you could be at the top of the alliance with me, Kamilla and Star. Kamilla, Star and me are down to go to rocks. I can’t see another path forward. It's critical mass, four vs four.”

Mitch “You might just have something there, Mary.”

Once again, Mitch doesn’t commit, which tells Mary she needs to come up with a plan that doesn’t depend on Mitch.

While I understand why Mitch was reluctant to side with Mary and Star, it just didn’t do Mitch any good to say anything other than “yes” when they pitched him. By saying “yes” to Joe and Shauhin, Mitch reassured them both, and they saw no need to strategize any further. Mitch could have accomplished the same thing by giving Star or Kamilla a “yes,” even if he was still unsure. With both sides convinced they’d locked up Mitch, it meant MITCH’s vote might decide who left. Who knows? If Kamilla, Star and Mary believe Mitch is with them, they had a shot a removing Eva with her Idol and Safety Without Power Advantages if the other side split their votes – which is ultimately what they did.

In last week’s column, I mentioned I have a list of 14 people who were indecisive like Mitch was with Kamilla, Mary and Star. I won’t review all of them, but I thought this was a good time to mention how a couple of indecisive people directly caused their removals.

I’ll also give a couple of examples of how giving a firm “yes” in these situations can give you control over the vote.

Christy Smith

S6: The Amazon, Final 6

Rob Cesternino had just blindsided Alex, which angered his alliance partners Jenna and Heidi. Rob had a side alliance with Butch and Matt. The women hadn’t been very nice to Christy but needed her vote now. They asked her to help boot Rob. Rob wanted to include Christy in a new four-person alliance and pitched her too. Christy thought she had all the power (which for a moment was true), but she wouldn’t give either side an answer. In confessional, she said she’d decide at Tribal Council. Rob wasn’t gonna leave it up to chance, so when Christy wouldn’t commit, he simply asked Jenna and Heidi if they’d boot Christy instead. Just like that, Christy was gone.

Jonathan Penner

S25: Philippines, Final 8

Penner had built up good trust with Lisa Whelchel. He knew she was a famous actress, but didn’t expose her secret to those who didn’t know, which she appreciated. Malcolm and Denise had pitched Lisa’s partner Skupin on a Final 4 deal. Skupin did the right thing, said he was interested and would pitch Lisa. Lisa actually wanted to work with Penner and Carter, so before responding to Malcom or Denise, she asked Penner if he wanted a Final 4 deal with her and Skupin. Penner made a bonehead move and said he didn’t want to commit to any deals until Final 6. That didn’t inspire any confidence in Lisa, who said in confessional that Penner missed a great opportunity. Penner’s indecisive statement sent her straight to Malcolm and Denise and they sealed a Final 4 deal. Penner didn’t realize his mistake until Final 7 when Lisa told him his failure to accept her pitch sent her to Malcolm and Denise to accept theirs. Penner was voted out at Final 7.

Christy and Penner are shining examples of how being indecisive or non-committal can directly lead to being voted out. Neither one of them were being targeted when asked to join a majority. But failing to commit put them on a fast track to the jury box. Others who got themselves booted by not saying “yes” include Gabriel (Marquesas), Dolly (Vanuatu), Tijuana (Pearl Islands), Flica (Cook Islands), Malcolm (Philippines), Chris (Edge of Extinction) and Andy at last season’s final 6. Aubry’s indecision at Kaoh Rong Final 13 (writing Julia’s name, then crossing it out and voting for Peter) didn’t get her voted out but came back to haunt her in the finals when it cost her three Jury votes.

So how should they have played it? I’ll give two examples of how being decisive on the outside (even if you’re unsure on the inside) can help your game immeasurably and even give you some power.

Kim Spradlin-Wolfe

S24: One World, Final 11

This men vs. women season merged with six men and six women. Kim had two alliances – one with the women and another with man and women. She could choose which side she’d have a better chance with. She decided to stick with the women, but didn’t want to tip the men off until the women had a stronger majority. She knew there was tension between Troyzan and Mike, so she took the initiative and had this chat with Mike:

Kim: “I want to play with you. I’d rather vote out Troyzan or Jay first.”

Mike: “I was never included in part of their alliance anyway.”

This put Mike’s mind at ease. He was confident Kim would be a long-term partner. Then Kim went to Troyzan and lied, saying Mike had been telling people Troyzan was a threat to win the game and was “working against “us,” not just him. That achieved the same thing. Troyzan was sold on booting Mike. And neither one of them was gonna compare notes with each other.

This put Kim in control of the vote. If something were to change and she wanted to remove a woman, she knew she could do it because she had everyone’s confidence. Nobody was worried about Kim changing her mind on them because she’d convinced them she was solid. Mike was blindsided, and Kim still had trust from Troyzan and Jay.

Kelly Remington

S30: Worlds Apart, Final 11

This season began with three tribes and Kelly was on the Blue Collar tribe. After a swap, Kelly found herself alone on a tribe with three White Collars (Max, Shirin & Carolyn) and three No Collars (Jenn, Hali & Will). Kelly was right in the middle. Both sides wanted to recruit her, but Shirin got to her first, making a sympathy “I was the outsider” pitch. Kelly gave an immediate “Yes.” In confessional, Shirin patted herself on the back for locking Kelly up so quickly. Jenn & Hali wanted to boot either Max or Shirin “because they’re equally annoying” but hadn’t gotten around to recruiting Kelly yet. After their tribe lost Immunity, Max and Shirin both asked Kelly to vote for Will, and again, Kelly immediately agreed. Unbeknownst to Kelly, Carolyn had approached the No Collars and said she wanted to remove either Max or Shirin. Kelly was standing with Jenn, Hali, Will and Carolyn when Jenn said, “I say us five get rid of them two,” Kelly realized she’d been included in the majority. She agreed to their plan too. Kelly helped blindside Max.

Kelly didn’t make a deep run. She didn’t even make the Jury. But without a doubt, she kept herself safe at the swap simply by saying “yes” when someone made a pitch to her. Her immediate confirmation meant Max and Shirin would NOT start pitching others – possibly to vote Kelly out. It also assured the No Collars they had a plan locked in. And nobody was voting for Kelly.

By executing a very basic Survivor move – making others believe they can influence how you vote – Kelly and Kim guaranteed their safety.

Mitch’s indecision could still backfire on him. Kamilla and Mary will probably never want to include Mitch again. And Mitch didn’t improve his position with the “Strong 4” alliance either. If he’d said yes to Mary, Kamilla or Star, he’d have had more information about how they were voting. He could have shared that info with the “Strong 4,” which might improve his position with them. They spared Mary once because she doesn’t have a Shot in the Dark and is a sitting duck. They can do it again and remove Mitch, who is a bigger Immunity threat than Mary is. Mitch didn’t improve his position. He made it worse. So now, Mitch is outside of the “Strong 4,” but doesn’t know it. He also has no idea Kyle will protect Kamilla over him. His position was spelled out for him by Kamilla and Mary, who now have no reason to think Mitch will work with them. How does Mitch save himself if Joe or Eva wins Immunity, and use the Safety Without Power?

The only thing working in Mitch’s favor is the fact that final 7 is an excellent time to make a move against Joe or Eva, who are overflowing with confidence now. If neither of them win Immunity, Eva is sure to use her Safety Without Power on herself. But doing so will remove one vote for Joe. It figures that Kyle and Kamilla would most likely take a shot at Shauhin instead of Mitch (unless they know Joe doesn’t have Eva’s Idol). Mary will go along with any plan that keeps her in the game. But if Kyle and Kamilla choose to play it safe, the smarter move is to boot Mitch. If that happens, Mitch will forever regret not saying “yes” to Kamilla, Star and Mary when they pitched him.

Let’s see how it plays out.

And away we go ...

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Right off the bat we’re reminded of how indecisive Mitch was to Kamilla in the “previously on” recap. “As much as I want to make a move, I just can’t do it.”

Mary complains about how everyone she aligns with gets voted out. She’s this season’s Teeny. It felt like everyone Teeny called her #1 or started plotting with (Aysha, Kishan, Sierra, Sol, Caroline) got booted immediately.

Mary tells Kamilla, “If you can’t get rid of Eva or Joe, keep me around because I’m easier to boot later on.” I don’t think I’d ever serve my own name up, but Mary does seem to have nine lives. Just the same, her pitch was pretty awkward.

Mitch tells Mary and Kamilla “I just wish Joe would go home next.” I’ve been remiss in making my musical references, but this is a perfect time to quote Rage Against The Machine’s "Guerilla Radio": “It has to start somewhere, it has to start sometime. What better place than here, what better time than now?”

Kyle told Kamilla about Eva’s Safety Without Power. He also knows it expires after this vote, but we didn’t see if he shared that part with Kamilla.

Joe thinks a win is more honorable if the toughest competitors are there at the end. He thinks that will prove “you can do anything.” Everyone is competing from day 1. Why is it more honorable to beat someone at final 3 than earlier in the game? Why is taking someone out a strong player at, say final 10 less “honorable” than facing a jury with that player next to you? I’ve never understood that mindset.

Mary makes the only pitch she can to Kyle: “Why would anyone want to sit next to Joe?” Kyle is considering it. This one is a no-brainer to me, especially since Eva has so many trinkets. But Kyle gives Mary a firm “I don’t know.” Hasn’t he read the intro to this column yet?

Mary “To me, that sounds like a ‘no.’ That’s how it feels.” She takes it out on some coconuts. Mary read the intro.

Eva is lecturing Mary on the Coconut etiquette, and Mary correctly responds with an “I’m not getting picked for the Reward.” I remember in Heroes vs Villains, James got pissed off at Amanda when she asked him to conserve their bananas. Did Eva just lose Mary’s possible jury vote?

It’s a kiss of death in Survivor to mess with people’s food, but I’d probably do the same thing if I were in Mary’s shoes. I just wouldn’t do it in front of anyone. I’d do like Jane did in Nicaragua and sneak off with some food and eat it.

And Kamilla puts it into words! “No one’s gonna want to keep around a person who doesn’t know proper coconut etiquette.” James has GOT to be proud of this moment. I don’t blame Mary at all for fueling herself for the Immunity Challenge. This is another reason Kyle should have let Mary believe he was cool with her pitch.

Kyle won’t even commit to a plan when his #1 Kamilla pitches it. If I’m Kamilla, I realize it’s time to get rid of Kyle. If he’s not with her now, she’s probably not getting to the finals.

Kyle: “Sorry I’m being so wishy-washy ... if I burn them, I don’t know if I get their vote.” He’s starting to act like Amanda at the final 4 of China and Micronesia. If he goes on an apology tour, he can say goodbye to the million. Or maybe he’s gonna fall on his sword like Ian in Palau. Hopefully Kyle won’t sit on a buoy for 11 hours first like Ian did.

This episode is starting to feel like a lot of nothing will happen again. This extended segment with Shauhin is reinforcing that feeling. This season is starting to drop on my “favorite seasons” list.

And now we’re watching Kyle, Mitch and Shauhin going fishing. What? No Kenny Loggins music like we saw with Austin, Drew, Jake and Bruce in 45?

Mary wants to go on another Journey ... because Kyle didn’t fill her with any confidence about going after Joe. If Kyle had given her a firm “yes,” Mary might not try to go at all, and she’d remain a sitting duck should Joe or Eva win Immunity.

Eva goes on a Journey and is worried about losing her vote. I guess she didn’t realize that same thing will happen if she uses her Safety Without Power. That tells me she probably wasn’t planning on using it at all.

Eva has an interesting-looking game to play but it’s anti-climactic because it’s so obvious Eva should just play to keep her vote. She has nothing to gain by getting Knowledge Is Power. There’s zero reason for her to risk it.

As I’m watching this, I really don’t care if Eva completes this puzzle or not. It doesn’t even matter if she tells the truth or lies about what happens.

Normally when I write my column, I’ll do a rewatch, stop and freeze-frame moments or go back to make sure I get the quotes right. Tonight, I fast forwarded through the Journey segment.

Eva is coming off as pretty cocky about what happened when she returns. She slipped and said “You guys all want that shit. I have power ... everyone knows I have an Idol.” A little humility could have gone a long way here, but she might have rubbed some players the wrong way. She was more like ‘Nyah, nyah, neeener, neener, I still have my vote.”

Mary is smart for pitching Shauhin on booting Joe, but she wasn’t smart for telling him she pitched Kamilla and Kyle first. Is Shauhin about to prove he didn’t read my intro too? At a minimum, he should say “Let’s make a plan and adjust after we see who wins Immunity.” It doesn’t look like he did that.

Yeah, this season is starting to feel like people are laying down for Joe, and its not Joe who is keeping everyone in line either. That’s so disappointing. We have so many smart people in this game. Why are they so reluctant?

Mary’s line was perfect: “We’re not playing with a bunch of dummies ... I want you to prove to me you outwitted, outplayed, not just outloyaled.” I think Mary just gave us her jury voting criteria.

In confessional, Shauhin explains everyone’s reluctance, saying “I could upset the status quo, exercise that power and feel what’s it’s like to be 100% in the driver's seat ... but that’s the scariest place to be.” They’re all too afraid to make a move, and that’s very boring to watch.

We’ve seen every element of this challenge before. The stronger guys are more able to lift their wheelbarrows over those speed bumps. The arch puzzle at the end favors the taller players who have longer arms. The most interesting part of this is the Sushi reward.

For a second there, I thought Joe’s first guess said “U not get it right.”

Probst was so ready to give it to Joe again, you could tell. Props to him for doing the right thing and spotting Joe’s mistake. Kamilla wins Immunity and closes it on a puzzle. She killed most of the pre-merge puzzles too.

Kamilla can take someone with her. It’s a no-brainer to take Kyle and work him on booting Joe or Eva. Kamilla takes Mitch, which isn’t a bad choice. But then she makes the worst possible choice in taking Eva (and again, we don’t see Probst asking her why). Now Kamilla can’t strategize at all, unless she’s gonna work on keeping Eva’s guard down. The smarter choices were to take Kyle or Shauhin and work on flipping them away from Joe. Mary will vote with you no matter what.

So, what is Kamilla gonna talk about with Eva? Once again, there is no assigned seating at this Reward feast.

In confessional, Kamilla admits she didn’t think about who she needed to talk to on the Reward. She says she didn’t want to fuel Joe but then decided to fuel Eva. How does that make any sense? And Eva confirms they mostly talked about food. This was a huge, missed opportunity for Kamilla.

Kamilla “I want Eva thinking we’re booting Mary.” Ok, maybe there’s some hope for this episode. Eva even point blank tells them, "I’m gonna play mt Idol at final 5, but (if I win Immunity) I’d play it for Joe.” It can’t be laid out any more clearly. Take a shot at one of them TONIGHT! That’s what Kamilla needs to say to Kyle.

Shauhin talking about how frustrating it is that he hasn’t won Immunity yet makes me think he’s gonna win at final 4.

Mary disappears from camp to make the guys think she’s Idol hunting. It worked once on Vula. Why not try it again?

Kyle in confessional: “What makes sense for me to do tonight?” BOOT JOE!!!!

Kyle tells Kamilla he’s a lawyer. Hmmm ... is Kyle planning on putting Kamilla on the Jury so she can tell the other jurors?

I think I’m gonna be pissed off if they DON’T move against Joe tonight. In fact, I’m pissed that they’re still thinking about it.

I LOVED that Mary point blank announced, “Joe, I’m gonna write your name down tonight.” Adding “I’m gonna be honest” was a nice twist too. Could that force Kyle’s hand?

Joe takes the bait and pressures Mitch? Bad move, Joe. Mitch: “Whose name are you gonna write down, me?”

Then Joe indirectly hints to Shauhin he might write Shauhin’s name? Shauhin’s response was perfect “Welcome to Survivor man, I’ve had my name written down twice.” Earlier this season, I gave Joe’s game a grade of B. This mini-panic fest just dropped him to a C.

Joe was totally decisive when he wanted to go after Mary. But he’s pretty damned indecisive now. Is Joe about to join my list?

Shauhin in confessional: “Twice I had my name written down, and I acted cool as a cucumber. Mr. 'I’ve worn the Immunity necklace three times' and now you’re freaking out because ONE person’s gonna write your name down?” Shauhin just gave a reason he might not vote for Joe if he ends up on the jury.

Hmm, Star doesn’t get the traditional close-up as she enters Tribal Council.

Kyle opens by saying he’s getting married after the game. Again, he makes another smart statement in front of the Jury. He wasn’t obvious about it either. That’s something that can make people feel good about giving you money.

Mary talking about her mother’s sacrifices, was pretty good too. But it got diluted by Kamilla and Shauhin sharing similar stories. I didn’t get as strong a feeling from Joe talking about his kids. Chrissy and Cedrek were smiling when Probst said Kamilla won Immunity.

David isn’t scowling as much as he was at the last Tribal Council.

Kamilla explains why you can’t play a good game of Survivor without lying (“Based off the conversations she (Mary) has had, that’s her reality. She doesn’t know if there’s another plan going on.”), and Probst goes straight to Joe for a rebuttal. Joe says the same thing he’s been saying all season: “Team, team team; trust, trust, trust.” He’s a broken record. Four people who aren’t on the team anymore are gonna decide who gets the million.

As much as I like Joe, I really hope they make a move against him. I like a good strategic game of Survivor better than what I’ve been seeing the last few episodes.

Eva doesn’t give her Idol to Joe and doesn’t play her Safety Without Power either.

Mary is gone. Strategy nerds like me are crushed, but David stands up for her. Star’s face palm says a lot.

I’ll speak for the audience. “Sit the fuck down, David. Get over yourself!”

I’ll say it now. Congratulations to Joe for winning Survivor 48. I hope I’m wrong, but it just doesn’t feel like anything else will happen. These players are too scared to play in their own interests.

Mary in her exit comments: “They were afraid to sit next to me in the final 3.” I love you Mary, but that’s a delusional statement. You got voted out because they were afraid to go after Joe. You’re complimenting yourself more than David does.

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Recap

What a disappointment. Mitch’s quote from last week is so appropriate: “As much as I want to make a move, I just can’t do it.”

On one hand, I’m wondering if I should be complimenting Joe on his ability to discourage people from going after him. He appears to be having the same level of control Coach had on his tribe in South Pacific. But of course, Sophie spent the whole season gathering intel she knew she could use to tear him apart at the end.

And I’m really not seeing that type of control from Joe at all. It’s not like everyone is repeating Joe’s “Honesty and integrity” mantra. We’ve seen all of these players talking about why they should remove him but they’re just not doing it. It’s like all of these players are like Hannah from Millennials vs Gen X refusing to go after David. That was equally frustrating.

While Joe did form strong emotional connections with Kyle, Shauhin and even Kamilla at the swap, it’s not like that was intentional strategy on his part. Their tribe won some pastries, and in an organic moment, they all started discussing their families. That conversation was started by Shauhin, not Joe. I don’t think Shauhin intended it as a strategic bonding opportunity either. Kamilla spoke up second, and she’s not even included in their alliance.

However, we did get a payoff from the pre-merge scene of those players talking about their parents’ struggles. That bonding moment is probably why Joe didn’t get voted out tonight.

We as viewers know Eva’s Safety Without Power has expired. There will be a clean shot available at Joe or Eva next week because one of them won’t have Immunity, and Kamilla knows Eva is planning on holding her Idol until final 5. Everyone knows Joe wants Mitch gone next. Those two are both already set up for a blindside if they don’t win Immunity. But they should have booted Joe this week. He’s just too big of an Immunity threat. He almost won again this week. A win for Joe next week throttles everything.

There is one positive, though. Since David can’t vote for Mary now, his Jury questioning is gonna be great. Pissed off jurors who don’t want to vote for any of the finalists are always entertaining. I wonder where Mary’s head will be? Does she respect Joe’s apparent invincibility? Is she upset at those who won’t move against him? If so, who does she blame the most? That person would be least likely to get her vote.

What do you think? Has this season become a slow, foot-dragging slog to Joe’s win? Is Joe playing a strong game or is he just the unintentional beneficiary of that pre-merge bonding moment? It sure seems like if nobody moves against Joe and Eva next week, the season is already over. Let me know what you think in the comments.