I often start my column with a historical look back at similar situations we saw in the most recent episode. Two episodes ago, Mitch was paralyzed by indecision about going after Joe, so I took a look back at how other players in his position handled it. Since this season’s remaining players were too afraid to make a move against the majority yet again, I didn’t want to be redundant. I was frustrated enough by the inactivity. This of course, means this week’s intro will be significantly shorter than last week’s. But there were a couple of nuggets I picked up in my rewatch.

When Eva went on her Journey, the instructions for her challenge were clear in saying, “When the timer ends, if you don’t have at least four levels completed, you’ll lose your vote at the next Tribal Council.” Eva completed four levels, then decided not to go for more so she could get a Knowledge Is Power Advantage that she didn’t need. But when she went back to the boat, she knocked the puzzle down - Michele Fitzgerald style. The hourglass still had half the sand left in it. Technically, she should have lost her vote because she didn’t have four levels completed when the timer ended.

I know, I know. I’m being very ticky-tack about this, but like I said, slow game play forced my hand this week. Just the same, seeing this enhances the “favored contestant” conspiracy theory. Eva was hand-delivered a Safety Without Power Advantage when producers put a scroll in her bowl of tortilla chips, then put name tags where everyone was to sit. The only way Eva wasn’t getting that Advantage was if she gave her chips to someone else without eating any of them first. Now, I have no doubt it was the producers who encouraged Eva to knock the puzzle down in the first place. But even if they did, it would still be a case of producers creating a moment for a favored player to shine.

I want to be clear though, that Eva does NOT deserve any blame if any of this turns out to be true. She won that Immunity/Reward Challenge fair and square. She had no idea the other players on that Reward had next to zero chance at getting the Safety Without Power Advantage (which she never used anyway). As far as she knew, it was totally random. And being selected to go on that Journey was completely random too. Producers didn’t know who’d be holding the bag of rocks and couldn’t control who picked which rock. In fact, I’d bet Producers wanted anybody BUT Eva or Joe to go on that Journey. If Eva goes on to win this season, I would NOT consider it a Producer-aided win like Boston Rob or Ben’s were.

I don’t think Eva has played the best game. I think she has hidden behind Joe too much. But I can recognize the possibility of an Eva win, even if she sits next to Joe. David still thinks Joe broke his word. He won’t vote for Joe. David can influence Mary’s vote. I can see Star rewarding Eva for the same reason she gave her Idol to Eva – Star thinks Eva has earned it more than Joe has. Chrissy never bought into Joe’s “Honesty and integrity” mantra either. I have no idea where Cedrek’s head is (I really miss the full-length Ponderosa videos). I agree with Kyle and Mitch when they say Joe is the frontrunner, but a victory for Joe is far from a certainty.

If Kyle and Kamilla don’t move against Joe and Eva this week, one of them will be accepting defeat and the other will likely lose to them in the finals. Eva has already said she’ll play her Idol for Joe at final 5 if she wins Immunity, and we know Joe has a great shot at winning any Immunity Challenge. He almost won one that required spelling (“Got fun Betrale” Joe? Really?). An Immunity win for Joe this week means they MUST move against Eva to have any shot at Joe at final 5.

If Joe wins Immunity, will they take the shot at Eva, or will the fear of Eva’s Idol paralyze them again? Seeing Mitch become a default boot will be worse than seeing Mary in that position last week, and it all but guarantees Kamilla leaves right behind him. Let’s hope something interesting happens.

And away we go…

---

Hmmm ... no “Previously on” segment. That tells me they needed room to include some good action ... I hope.

Eva: “I feel really good about my position .... It should be pretty cut and dry. We just pick off the other members (Mitch and Kamilla).” Those are death phrases in Survivor. Could Eva be leaving tonight?

Shauhin: “Nobody wants to go up against Mitch in the finals.” Isn’t that a great reason to remove Mitch instead of Mary or Star?

I’m starting to think Kyle is screwed either way. If he betrays Kamilla, she’ll tell the jury how closely they were working together, and they’ll hate him for stabbing her in the back. But if he betrays Joe & Shauhin, Joe, Eva and David will go off on him.

Kyle: “I’ve been playing with heart. It’s time to start playing with my head.” I said that to you five episodes ago.

Shauhin: “Do I want to go at Joe and Eva or am I delusional? A lot of people think Joe is playing the best game.” Dude, if that’s your jury’s perception, this is a no-brainer. Jury perceptions are what decides the winner. You HAVE to go after Joe, whether or not you use your legs to do it.

I remember this challenge from Survivor 45. Katurah had a panic attack and had to step down. Finally, we get the letters from home, and this time Probst told them before the challenge began, which is different from the last two seasons. But at Final 6, there’s fewer people to piss off when you leave them behind. The best moments come when the juror who got bounced right before the Loved Ones challenge finds out how close they came to being there for it.

The size of the hand hold pegs is less of a factor than the lack of friction on the wet ramps. I wonder if Shauhin’s sweater helps or hurts him in this one? Joe is bearing the most weight but also has the strongest arms.

Eva and Joe are out. Too bad this wasn’t for Immunity. Shauhin pulls it out and finally wins a challenge.

If the plan is in place to boot Joe or Eva, you need to leave them both behind. Don’t feed either of them. So, naturally he picks Joe. Bonehead move, Shauhin. That could get you voted out. But picking Kyle because he’s got a wedding in a month was a decent reason to leave the others behind.

I really hope they bring the loved ones on location for Survivor 50. Their presence makes this segment so much more compelling than letters alone.

So, fans get to vote on whether or not to have Idols in 50? That’s a no-brainer “yes” for me, but I’d rather vote on the number of Idols that will be available. I say no more than 4. 1 for each tribe at the start, and one merge Idol. Vote here: Survivor50CBS.VoteNow.tv

We’ve seen this banana-shaped prop log in Joe’s confessional shown against 3 different backgrounds this season -- one with Mitch and one with Eva. That screams “This confessional was recorded after day 26” to me.

Joe telling Kyle and Shauhin about his deceased sister was probably spontaneous and sincere, but it also makes it much harder to vote him out. It’s a smart strategic move. I don’t think that was Joe’s intent, though.

Mitch and Kamilla are mad about Joe getting fed again. Dude, that’s why you should have voted him out at the last Tribal. Don’t call everyone else “knuckleheads” when you won’t go after him yourself.

Eva says she was left alone to keep an eye on Kamilla and Mitch, and the first thing she does is leave them alone.

Shauhin screws up by hinting to Joe that he’s having second thoughts about Kamilla, then Mitch by saying “I’ll tell you my hesitation ... there is no hesitation.” The long pause that followed was enough to activate Joe’s paranoia.

Then Shauhin pitches Kyle on booting Eva. Kyle correctly observes that Shauhin just gave him the ammunition to remove Shauhin if he wants to. He can just leak the plan to Joe. Just the same, the smartest move is still to remove Joe. Now Kyle can wait to see who wins Immunity. If Joe is available, boot Joe. If Joe wins Immunity, leak his “boot Eva” plan to Joe so he’s pissed off at Shauhin. Tell Kamilla and Mitch to vote for Eva, then use your own vote on Shauhin. The key is including Kamilla and Mitch on the plan so the three of you can remove Joe or Shauhin at Final 5.

But Kyle puts a twist on it and tells Kamilla to tell Joe that Shauhin showed her his Idol. Not a bad twist. Kyle thinks Joe and Eva will feel indebted to them. But I still agree with Rob C. when he says, “Favors aren’t returned in Survivor.”

Kyle was smart for thinking he could tell the Jury, “We got Joe to eat one of his own.” But he wasn’t so smart for saying that to Kamilla. That enhances her incentive to remove Kyle so SHE can tell that story to the Jury.

Joe’s speech to his sister is touching, but it also feels like his last moment before he joins the jury. It also feels like a “Let’s make the audience feel good about Joe” moment from the Producers.

This is a pretty massive challenge that I’d rather see at final 4.

After being so bad at the first part, Eva made a nice comeback to pass Kamilla and pull even with the guys on the table maze. Then she passed Mitch and Shauhin.

Probst “Joe is taking his time. He can afford to, but Eva’s catching him.” Uhh Jeff, Kyle was closer to Joe than Eva was by half a table length.

But it’s a blowout win for Joe. Shauhin’s decision is looking even worse now. If Eva doesn’t leave tonight, nobody else deserves to win. You simply can’t leave Joe, Eva AND her Idol in the game at final 5. One of those three has got to go. Why not at least try and fool Eva into playing it?

Kamilla in confessional: “If Shauhin goes home tonight it’s because he fed Joe.” It doesn’t get clearer than that.

Survivor has a card game you can play at home now? Why so soon? Were they waiting to see if the show would be a hit?

Joe: “My brain works slow sometimes.” Uh-huh, it does. “Got fun betrale.”

Joe checks with Eva, and she endorses Kyle.

Kyle and Kamilla’s lie is totally plausible, and it looks like Joe is buying it.

Shauhin to Joe: “Are we alright?” Joe’s hesitation said all that had to be said. He just alienated Shauhin. The quick glance at the ground after saying “yeah” probably sealed it. Most people can’t look someone in the eyes when they’re lying.

Shauhin in confessional: “I finally get to talk to my #1 and he doesn’t want to talk to me? How could you be bummed ... you get to walk around with your shirt off and those massive pecs.” Shauhin cracks me up almost as much as Mary, Kamilla and Star.

Shauhin to Kyle: “It (Joe’s paranoia) makes me want to go after Eva.” Go for it, Kyle!

Kamilla to Kyle: “I can’t believe this is actually working.” Genevieve said the exact same thing when her plan to boot Sol came together.

Eva to Kamilla: “I should only use my Idol if Shauhin plays his?” It’s set up perfectly now. Boot Eva!

As good as this plan sounds, it wouldn’t be necessary if they’d booted Joe last week. Mary would be 100% in on any plan that kept her in the game, and Eva probably wouldn’t sniff out anyone’s lie.

If the “boot Shauhin” plan works, Shauhin will probably start trashing Joe on the Jury. David and Mary will be very willing listeners.

Tribal Council begins at 9:20. So, there probably won’t be a 3-3 tie. That’s not good for Shauhin.

Eva: “I go back to the people I trust.” Why not just tell the Jury, “I’m doing whatever Joe does.”

Ok, the closeups on Joe with the distorted audio while Kyle and Shauhin are talking is a waste because Joe has Immunity. We haven’t seen Joe expressing much doubt about Kyle. I think he and Eva are voting for Shauhin.

Even this extended “Joe has a tough decision in the booth” bit is a waste because he has already agreed to vote with Eva. Changing his mind on her betrays their partnership. Joe’s not gonna do that.

Hmmm ... a 4-2 vote. I was expecting 5-1. Did Joe not tell Eva how he was voting?

Shauhin wants hugs from everyone. It’s good that he’s not gonna be bitter.

Kamilla voted for Mitch???? Why? Is she trying to frame Joe and/or Eva for doing it? How the hell does that make sense?

---

Recap

Ok, great. Shauhin is gone. Kyle’s plan worked. But I don’t think he helped himself much. Eva is safe next week, and Joe is still the biggest Immunity threat. If he wins, you have no choice but to cut Mitch loose and face the final 4 crapshoot. It would have been so much better for them if Kyle, Kamilla and Mitch voted for Eva. With Joe and Eva voting for Shauhin and Shauhin voting for Mitch, it’s a much more impressive move. In that scenario, Joe and Shahuin are pissed off at each other, and you three are united. There’s a 100% guarantee you can boot Joe or Shauhin next week.

I liked Shauhin’s game but it’s clear he played more of a team game than an individual one. His long con to boot David was impressive but he needed more of that. He didn’t fly too close to the sun, I don’t think he flew very far from the nest at all.

I’m not sure what he should have done to change this, but it was pretty easy for others to set Shauhin up for failure. It didn’t take much for Mary to convince Shauhin to agree to be the decoy vote when Cedrek was voted out. That could have backfired on him the same way this vote did. Shauhin wasn’t gullible, but he didn’t see the angle either time he was being setup.

Shauhin’s Jury vote is up for grabs. He has no idea how his boot came together, which means he can’t enhance Kyle or Kamilla’s chances to get votes. He wasn’t worried about losing to Kamilla, Kyle or Eva, so he probably won’t endorse them. But he did say “Nobody wants to go up against Mitch in the finals.” Does that mean he’ll lobby for Mitch? If he does, will anybody listen to him?

With the finale next week, I’ll offer a quick look at everyone’s chances.

Kamilla - Her game has been very stealth. Maybe too stealth. I’ve said a few times she needs to put Kyle on the Jury to tell them how well her plans have been working. She also knows Kyle can take credit for fooling Joe at the Shauhin boot. Her problem is if Kyle goes out at 5, Kamilla probably doesn’t make it to the finals. She’s unlikely to win Immunity against Joe and Eva, and I don’t think we’ve seen her make a fire yet. If she gets to the end with Kyle and Mitch, she’s got a great chance. But she really needs Joe gone.

Kyle – He’s got a better shot than Kamilla because he’s got better relationships with current jurors Chrissy, David, Shauhin and possible jurors Joe and Eva. His game has had a higher profile than everyone but Joe’s, and he’s got some ammunition to use against Joe if he takes credit for the Shauhin and Thomas boots. I also think he could beat Joe straight up because Joe won’t be able to outtalk Kyle.

Joe – On the plus side, he’s the perceived frontrunner. He’s very likable, has pulled off some Immunity wins and can say he protected Eva. He can win the fire challenge too. On the negative side, he was easily fooled by Kyle and Kamilla twice (at the Thomas and Shauhin boots), and has at least 3 jurors (Chrissy, David and Mary) upset at him. He doesn’t have this locked away at all. Joe has shown he’s not very good at thinking fast on his feet, which means he can easily be rattled under Jury questioning.

Eva – I just don’t see how she can be favored by any of these jurors over anyone else. She’s been on the border of being seen as a coattail rider, and she keeps enhancing that image by talking about how loyal she’s been. However, her personal story is very compelling. I could easily see her winning if the jurors are upset with the other finalists.

Mitch – He can’t make any claims to outwitting anyone. He’s done too much complaining about not being able to get anything done to take credit for any moves. He’s a likable enough guy but just hasn’t played the game very well. Mitch needs the other finalists to slip up in front of the jurors to get a win like Maryanne, Erika and Gabler did.

I think we’ll have a mid-level winner this season. Kyle and Kamilla have played the best games, but so far they haven’t topped Rachel. They’ve just been too hesitant to make moves and have left too many solid threats around at the end. Coming up with great plans doesn’t mean much when you don’t use them. A win for Joe would be celebrated by Probst, but I’m a strategy nut. Joe didn’t outwit anyone all season.

What are your thoughts? Was booting Shauhin the smart play or should they have recognized they had a green light to blindside Eva? Has Joe hurt his chances of winning by turning on David and Shauhin after preaching loyalty all game? Should Kamilla remove Kyle? Should Kyle remove Kamilla? Does Mitch or Eva have any chance at all? Let me now in the comments.