I’ll start off this week’s intro with a rant about the Ponderosa videos. Back in the olden days (when the game was 39 days long), we got extended videos from each Jury member as they spent the last several days on the Ponderosa waiting for Final Tribal Council. Sometimes we’d get 2-3 videos for each juror, each of which were at least three minutes long. We saw the existing jurors greeting (or refusing to greet) the newest member as they arrived. We often saw them talking about the remaining players and who they thought was playing a good or bad game. My favorite moments were the conversations shared over the first meal the jurors shared with their newest member. I loved seeing what the jurors were most curious about and how they questioned the newest juror.

We also got insight into which jurors were bitter and which ones could let go of hurt feelings. One good example comes from One World. Kat was inconsolable after being blindsided. She was furious at Alicia when she joined the Jury four days later. I was certain Kat would be bitter at Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina, but she’d gotten over it two days after Alicia arrived. Alicia was bitter and mean while she was in the game but was just fine on the Ponderosa. She wondered why Kat was still angry at her.

In Kaoh Rong, jurors Scot, Jason and Julia were so upset at Cydney they wouldn’t talk to her. Actually, Julia wasn’t mad, she was simply following Scot’s lead. That’s when I realized Scot was in control of Julia’s vote. We knew Cydney didn’t care what those three thought (and vice-versa). But we also were surprised to see how bitter Cydney was at Aubry. At a minimum, you could suspect which jurors were influencing others, and who had no influence at all.

Maybe it was purely a cost-cutting move, but the Ponderosa videos completely disappeared in Survivor 42. Then again, reports that Drea’s negative behavior (especially towards Omar) was a contributing factor that season. The videos returned in Survivor 43, but they were little more than 2 minutes of each juror saying, “It sure is nice in Fiji, I get free drinks.”

But I’m happy to report the Ponderosa videos are starting to become interesting again. No, we’re not seeing players fight with each other over who screwed up their game (like Laura Morett and Eric Cardona did in Samoa), or who they’re hoping gets voted out next. But there are nuggets of insight sneaking through, interspersed with clips from the broadcast. I’ll recap the comments from Cedrek, Chrissy and David. Each video is recorded the day after each juror is voted out. So, we don’t see how Cedrek’s feelings may have changed after speaking to Chrissy or David.

This told me Cedrek was still a little strategically disconnected because he still thought he could trust Sai. But most interesting to me is his fondness for Star. Star consoled Cedrek after one of his bad challenge performances, and Cedrek remembers it. Could that one gesture lead to a million-dollar vote for Star?

This tells me Chrissy thinks Joe is running the game, and she’s upset those on the bottom aren’t moving against him (especially Mary). It sounds like Joe has the best shot at her vote if he gets to the end. But if he doesn’t, Chrissy might reward whoever she thinks took Joe out. It doesn’t sound like Chrissy will vote for anyone who takes a back seat to Joe (Did you hear that, Eva and Shauhin)?

My read is that David is absolutely bitter and feels cheated. It’s not a stretch to conclude he blames Joe, Eva, Kyle and/or Shauhin for not being loyal to him (even though he was plotting against half of them). I find it interesting that David thinks others were being cruel to him for voting him out, but he wasn’t being cruel to Sai, Cedrek or Chrissy when he voted for them. It’s also interesting that the only one he thinks is playing a good game is the only player who agreed with him. David’s curious definition of loyalty will absolutely be a factor in his jury vote, and I doubt any juror not named Mary will be able to change his mind. The question is how will the finalists appeal to him to get his vote whether or not Mary is in the finals? Who knows what David will want to hear? How the winner sends Mary out of the game could secure David’s vote.

It's still very early, of course. We have to wait for at least five more players to join the Jury, and each one will bring new information to the existing jurors. There’s plenty of game left to play, and plenty of jurors' minds to change.

So, heading into this week, the fallout from David’s blindside will be felt. Previews indicate Kamilla is pitching Mary and Star on a move against the crumbling majority alliance. That puts Kyle in an interesting position. If Kamilla can unite Star, Mary and Mitch, does she bring Kyle into the plan? If she does, that’s bad news for Shauhin, since everyone knows about Eva’s Idol and Safety Without Power. Or maybe they could try to flush one or more of Eva’s trinkets if Joe or Eva don’t win immunity. Even more interesting is this: Could Kamilla consider moving against Kyle since he’s the only one who could tell the jurors how much her scheming and plotting has been working? Do Eva and Joe know how important an Immunity win is for them this week? Did Shauhin put another long con in motion that might pay off this week? Let’s find out.

And away we go ...

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While watching the “previously on,” I’m still wondering why nobody questioned David’s unilateral decision to bring Mary in. It was like “David says she’s in, so she’s in.” They were doing as David wanted without question, then they blindsided him.

Mary blames the strong guys, or as she put it the "bulky, hulky, strong herculean people" for David’s departure. She still doesn’t know what role Kamilla is playing.

Eva pulls Mary aside and says “I was like ‘Let’s not do Mary. We can get rid of Mary whenever.” Make up your mind Eva, are you trying to get Mary on your side or are you telling her she’s doomed?

But then Eva tells her “If it’s you, I’ll tell you ... but you’re not getting my Idol.” I think Eva just guaranteed she won’t get Mary’s vote. That was a slap in the face.

Then she tells the guys “I told Mary to be a number for us.” I like Eva as a person, but that was just plain dumb. There’s zero reason Mary would want to comply with that request, and the guys are fools if they think that will work. She just told Mary to accept defeat.

It looks like it took about 15 seconds for Mary to start plotting against Eva. Eva sent Mary straight to Kamilla and Star. Mary: “They might even split their votes.” Mary’s “We” became “they” at lightning speed. But it doesn’t look like Kamilla told the women she can bring Kyle in. That was smart.

Star’s confessionals are always entertaining: “They think everything is peaches and cream, but it’s as brown and dirty as the coconut I ate last night.” But she’s so strategically disconnected it’s hard to take her seriously.

Mitch’s pit bull story makes everybody laugh. That makes me think the majority will go after him. He’s too likable to sit next to at the end.

Shauhin: “If Kamilla and Mitch wake up, they’ll realize they need to make a move now.” He doesn’t know what Kamilla has been doing either. Kamilla needs to change that.

Joe makes a pretty weak pitch to Mitch. If I hear someone say, “Let’s get to six, and boot Star or Mary.” I also hear them saying “I’m cutting you at six.” Mitch does the right thing by immediately saying “yes.” But does he mean it? I’d love it if Mitch was playing Joe.

Star pitches Mitch on turning against the “Strong 4,” and he gives the worst possible answer “I don’t know right now.” If he’d said “yes,” he would be in the middle and would have the power to swing the vote. Kamilla should have made this pitch herself.

Kamilla brings Kyle in on the plan to boot Joe. But in confessional, Kyle isn’t sure he wants to do it? Come on Kyle, the writing is on the wall, you need to break up Joe and Eva to have a shot at getting to the finals. You know those two want to sit next to each other. You need to open up at least one of those seats. How do you know Joe and Eva want you there instead of Shauhin?

But then Kyle straight up lies to Joe about Kamilla sticking with them. If this was edited in sequence, Kyle just set himself up to lose Joe’s jury vote if Joe finds out Kyle was in on it.

Isn’t it about time for the Loved Ones Reward? The smart player tanks it. But in the last couple of seasons, they didn’t find out letters from home were on the line until after somebody won.

They used this exact same challenge last season, but they did it in three-person teams and they had to push the ball with their heads, and the end was different. I remember Sam telling Rachel to use the same path blazed by Kyle.

The food Reward is chicken and waffles? If it’s not Roscoe’s Chicken and Waffles, it’s not the best. But yeah, if I was starving, I’d go for something else. Their spontaneous chant was cute but made me think this is gonna be a slow episode now.

Kyle “wins” this challenge. Did he just screw himself by having to deny someone their letters from home?

Probst tells Kyle to pick one person and he takes Eva. Smart move to keep his cover. But then he blows it by picking Kamilla. Star was the right choice. Probst says take one more, and he takes Shauhin adding “he’s making the camp laugh all the time.” That’s a good reason to keep Shauhin out of the finals. I think Star was the smarter choice, but at least he didn’t have to deny them letters from home.

That’s an interesting twist to let the Reward team board the boat while the others are watching. It’s a nice little knife twist that reminded me of the Caramoan twist when Brenda and Dawn had to watch, hear the winners enjoying their feast on a boat close to camp. They could even smell the food being cooked. And that season there were TWO loved ones members on site. Brenda winning that challenge and sending so many loved ones to that boat is why Cochran voted her out. I’ll never forgive Cochran for that.

No assigned seating on this Reward again.

Eva in confessional: “I feel unconcerned with the next few votes.” That means Eva is perfectly set up for a blindside. Then at the reward, Eva says they must keep Immunity away from Mary and Star. Will anybody pick up on that? Don’t they know Eva’s Safety Without Power expires at Final 7? That’s the next vote. If she doesn’t have Immunity, she’s bound to use it. This is the perfect time to go after her.

Kyle in confessional: “Every pick was a strategy decision, especially the people I did not pick for the Reward. I need Mitch, Star and Mary as pissed off as they can possibly be. That way they might go with Kamilla and try to get rid of Joe ... I did this for Kamilla to help her.” Mission accomplished, Kyle, but they’ll probably be pissed off at you.

Joe tells Mary he thought she was working David like a pawn, saying “He (David) was easy to manipulate.” But she doesn’t realize if she plays into that impression, it could improve her chances of winning. He also doesn’t realize if she’s on the jury and says that to David, Joe has an even worse shot at getting David’s vote (and his chances are already pretty bad).

Mary in confessional: “Joe thinks he’s gonna vote me out and I’m gonna give him the million dollars because he was honest with me, which is hilarious.” Joe might have just talked his way out of Mary’s jury vote.

Mitch STILL doesn’t realize he can control the vote by convincing Mary he’s with her. He’s becoming an indecisive swing vote. Indecisive players often end up being sacrificed by those they hold hostage. I’ve got a list of 14 people who got booted after being indecisive. Cedrek joined that list this season.

It’s good that Mary is pitching Mitch, but she’s doing it before the Immunity Challenge. Does she have a plan B if Joe wins Immunity? It doesn’t look like it. Lack of a viable plan B could lose Mitch.

They used this Immunity Challenge last season too. Rachel won it on her way to the million dollars. Nobody was penalized last season for placing the “I” upside down, but they were in past seasons. In HHH, Ben and Chrissy had to start over when he had an upside down “S” and Chrissy’s “U” was upside down. But then she won it after nobody noticed she had an upside down “S.”

I can feel the audience yawning when Probst brings out the rice. Nobody goes for it, which of course, means the players don’t care about it either.

The smart player stacks their letters at the edge of their barrel so they don’t have to reach back as far. But none of this season’s players are doing that. Did they change the rules on them?

Nope. Kamilla, Mitch, Mary, and Shauhin all stacked their letters after dropping.

Mary has an upside down “I.”

Shauhin drops and then walks around? Come on man, stay in the game! Rachel dropped her stack several times last season. I know you didn’t see last season yet, but damn!

That slow-motion fly thing is killing me.

Joe wins Immunity and Mary’s lack of a backup plan could spell her doom. She should have set someone up as the backup. Who knows if she’ll have enough time to pitch a new plan to everyone else.

Yeah Mitch, why are you telling Star to play her Shot in the Dark? You need her vote on your side! Mitch is a nice guy, but he really doesn’t understand how Survivor works. He’s chasing a potential partner away.

Mitch in confessional “As much as I want to make a move, I just can’t do it.” I’m counting down the seconds until they just decide to boot Mitch since they can’t count on him. Mitch just joined my “Indecisive Swing Votes” list.

Mary pitches Kamilla on booting Kyle. We all know Kamilla ain’t going for that. So, now Kamilla wants Mary gone.

Mary pitches Shauhin on booting Star, but Shauhin doesn’t give a convincing “yes.” Come on, Shauhin. That’s basic Survivor 101.

Star’s rap was awesome. I wanted more of it. And now I’m getting it! It’s a fun way for her to go out of the game.

Once again, everyone is going to Joe for final approval on the vote.

Mary: My social game is pretty friggin’ bomb, but with this group of people, it’s not slappin’, hittin’ or workin’.” Guess what Mary, if it’s not hittin’ it’s not da bomb. You failed when you couldn’t figure out why Mitch makes decisions.

The smart move is to boot Star because Mary is still a sitting duck with no Shot in the Dark.

Kyle: Star has faith like the Godfather.” That was a good statement to make to get her Jury vote.

Star just called Probst “Uncle J.P.” Everyone thought that was funny, including Probst.

Star: “Mitch told me to play my Shot in the Dark, and respectfully to Mitch, he didn’t stutter!” Star is hilarious.

Mary: “Paranoia has gotten people who were not on the bottom voted out.” David didn’t like that.

David gives Eva a death stare as she goes up to vote. Yeah, he’s a bitter juror for sure. That glare was worse than the last one.

We get a close up of the Shot in the Dark bag as Star goes to vote. Last time we got that shot was when Mary played hers.

But Star voted this time.

Star is gone, and Mary is a sitting duck for the next vote. At least Star won’t have to listen to Mitch snoring anymore.

And David is still glaring.

Star leaving puts Cedrek’s jury vote up for grabs. I don’t think he was a lock to vote for Star if she got to the end, but it’s clear that’s where he was leaning. Who’s his favorite now?

And who will Star go for? I think it’s a safe bet she’s not leaning Mitch’s way. He probably lost her vote when he told her to play her Shot in the Dark.

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Recap

All season long, I’ve been saying Kamilla has been playing just a little better than Kyle. But she slipped up this week. Kyle gave her all the room she needed to flip this vote, and she completely failed. First, she failed to unite the troops against Joe, then she failed to swing the vote to Mary after Joe won Immunity. Now Kyle can deliver a gut shot to Kamilla if they’re sitting at the end together. Kyle can say “Kamilla couldn’t make any plans work without me,” and he won’t be lying. Several jurors will know how she pitched an uprising but couldn’t get Mitch to commit.

Yeah, I think Kyle put himself in front of Kamilla in this episode. He can beat her in the end, but I don’t think she can win unless Kyle joins the Jury and tells her story.

Joe is emerging as the frontrunner if for no other reason than he can say everyone consulted him on every post-merge vote. He’s not controlling the decisions, but he’s got that image for sure.

The biggest question I have now is can Kyle beat Joe? He’s a better speaker than Joe for sure because Joe largely depends on fairly meaningless cliches. But Joe is more likable to most of these jurors. It’s a tough call.

And I have no clue how Shauhin fits into this mix. He can surprise some people, especially if he explains his long con to remove David and how it strengthened his position. And as Kyle said at the challenge, Shauhin makes everybody laugh. He’s got a good likability factor too.

We’d have gotten a lot of insight if we had traditional Ponderosa videos. Maybe they’ll be back for Survivor 50.

What do you think? Did the power structure change? Is Joe indeed the frontrunner? Can Kyle make it to the end without burning bridges? Has Kamilla’s failure with Mitch doomed her to a loss? Does Mitch have a chance? Let me know in the comments.