Pat Ferrucci

Pat Ferrucci Survivor 31 recapsPat Ferrucci started watching Survivor when episode two of Borneo first aired. He's seen every episode since. Besides recapping here, he'll be live-tweeting this season from the Mountain Time Zone. Why? Because nobody cares about the Mountain Time Zone except when they want to ski.

His column, "Well, in theory..." has run here at the True Dork Times since 2014, when he first wrote about Season 31, Survivor: Cambodia - Second Chance.

Follow him on twitter: @PatFerrucci

  • S40 logo Survivor 40: Winners at War
    How about some power rankings heading into the end game?

    Episode 12: How about some power rankings heading into the end game?

    Published: May 4, 2020

    S40: Winners at War Episode 12 recap/ analysis

    By Pat Ferrucci | Published: May 4, 2020

    After an unplanned hiatus, Pat returns to speed through some catch-up communication theory takes on (and praise for) the season so far, then to assess the state of the game looking ahead for the final seven (and Edge players).

    Maybe some informed predictions this time?

    Pre-season: Maybe some informed predictions this time?

    Published: February 5, 2020

    S40: Winners at War Pre-season cast analysis

    By Pat Ferrucci | Published: February 5, 2020

    Pat takes an in-depth look at the picks and snubs from the complete pool of Survivor champs who were available to play Winners at War, then proceeds to rank the chances of those 20 actually picked to win against the other winners here.

  • S39 logo Survivor 39: Island of the Idols
    Well, in theory... - Island of the Idols

    Episode 11: Social capital, power rankings, and some relief

    Published: December 3, 2019


    With talk of social capital rising in the Survivor commentariat, Pat offers a more complete explanation of the concept in its original academic form, and talks about how the different kinds of social capital - bonded and bridged - contribute to Survivor success.

    Episode 6: Little late Power Rankings

    Published: November 1, 2019


    Pat returns after a brief hiatus to survey the Sole Survivor landscape, after the surprise power shift on Vokai in Episode 6. Who does Pat see as having the best chance to win, at this point in the game?

    Episode 3: Vince and trophy culture

    Published: October 14, 2019


    Pat presents the concept of trophy culture, and argues that Vince's brief, somewhat erratic approach to the social game makes sense as a result of trophy culture in the raising of millennials.

    Episode 1: Elaine and the art of paradigm repair

    Published: September 30, 2019


    Pat dives into the Island of the Idols premiere, specifically how the sociology concept of paradigm repair corresponds to Elaine's successful argument that it's dumb to vote someone out on Day 3 simply because they're likable.

    Pre-season: Big heads: The TDT Island of the Idols contestant draft

    Published: September 23, 2019


    The True Dork Times writers congregate and try to pick the winner of Survivor: Island of the Idols based on almost zero evidence. But that's no reason to avoid making what are probably ludicrously inaccurate hot takes.

    Pre-season: Here we go again... let's do some predicting

    Published: September 18, 2019


    As the premiere of Island of the Idols approaches, Pat has once again perused the cast bios, and ranked the new contestants' chances of winning based on this (and solely this) information. Who will climb to the top of Pat's highly scientific hierarchy?

  • S38 logo Survivor 38: Edge of Extinction
    Julia now understands how swiftly it can change - Well, in theory...

    Episode 9: Julia now understands how swiftly it can change

    Published: April 14, 2019


    Pat talks about how the collapse of Julia's game can be explained by the 'swift trust' organizational theory: as in, while trust is necessary in Survivor, rapidly-acquired bonds are more easily broken, as the younger Kamas did in the previous episode by blindsiding Eric.

    Episode 8: The cost of inflexibility: Did Devens just get sunk?

    Published: April 6, 2019


    With the players realigning seemingly at random, Pat turns his attention to Rick Devens and his refusal to work with Wardog. Is Rick's refusal a Survivor example of the behavioral economics concept of the sunk cost fallacy?

    Episode 7: It's time for the semi-annual (post-) merge Power Rankings!

    Published: April 2, 2019


    This one is all about power, as Pat takes a mid-season sabbatical to re-rank the remaining dozen (plus four) Edge of Extinction players and their likelihood of victory: Likely, Possible, and Unlikely (no win is impossible at this point).

    Episode 4: I hope this season becomes extinct, soon

    Published: March 18, 2019


    Pat hits pause on the theory this week, to present a new, emerging hypothesis: Is Edge of Extinction the worst Survivor season?

    Episode 3: It's time to stack some thoughts together

    Published: March 11, 2019


    Pat takes a look at the concept of stacking — a form of stereotyping, especially in sports — as it applies to Survivor. Specifically, in the Manu tribe's unsupported assumptions in selecting some of its 'weaker' players.

    Episode 1: Let's talk about Reem and stereotyping

    Published: February 26, 2019


    Dipping into his communication theory background, Pat looks at the cognitive process of stereotyping, and asks whether that played a factor in Reem's semi-exit in the premiere of Survivor: Edge of Extinction.

    Pre-season: Are y'all ready to laugh? Here are some predictions

    Published: February 7, 2019


    As is his custom, Pat has restricted his predictions exclusively to CBS bio-related information, and has a forecast for Extinction at the ready. Read on to discover whose chances to win he sees as most likely, possible, unlikely or impossible.

  • S37 logo Survivor 37: David vs. Goliath
    Well, in theory... S37

    Pre-Episode 14: Jury Jeopardy - David vs. Goliath

    Published: December 17, 2018


    With six players remaining, three True Dork Times writers (Pat Ferrucci, Ryan Kaiser, and Jeff Pitman) unite to forecast the outcome of the Survivor: David vs. Goliath jury's vote on the final three. Who will win the million? And more importantly, will we out-predict Survivor scribes from other sites?

    Episode 13: Theorizing about where everyone stands

    Published: December 14, 2018


    As the season finale looms, and the winner's landscape now lacks Christian's Goliath presence, Pat tries to discern which of the six David vs. Goliath contestants remaining are the frontrunners to win, might have a chance, or have no chance.

    Episode 12:Gabby attempts to restore her image

    Published: December 6, 2018


    Pat finds similarities between Gabby's big (attempted) move and the concept of image restoration theory, and finds it applies generally to the recent emphasis on making Big Moves, not just in Survivor: David vs. Goliath.

    Episodes 10-11: It's all about the trust

    Published: December 1, 2018


    Pat looks at the academic concept of interpersonal trust, and how it applies in Survivor, particularly as both a currency and a weapon, as seen in Episodes 10 and 11 of Survivor: David vs. Goliath.

    Episode 8: They're primed and ready to be Davids and Goliaths

    Published: November 20, 2018


    Pat looks at the degree to which social identity theory and priming theory explain the contestants' reversion to original tribal lines in the dramatic Tribal Council double-idol play in Episode 8 of Survivor: David vs. Goliath.

    Episode 7: Angelina and the definition of (the opposite of) success

    Published: November 10, 2018


    As Angelina's merge power play backfires, Pat looks to Robert K. Merton's theory of cumulative advantage (a.k.a. the Matthew Effect) to explain her overreach, and the conflict between short-term and long-term success in Survivor.

    Episode 6: The annual Merge-time Power Rankings!

    Published: November 1, 2018


    With the merge upon us, Pat takes a break from the theory, and (re-)ranks the remaining 13 contestants in ascending order of chances to win, while roughly sorting into groups of impossible, unlikely, possible, and likely winners.

    Episode 3: Evolution is real; Survivor is proof

    Published: October 17, 2018


    Pat applies Darwin's theory of evolution to Survivor strategy, and questions the inverse correlation between pre-merge swaps and survival of the goats. Plus a look at who else benefits from the upcoming swap.

    Episode 2: Don't upset the system

    Published: October 4, 2018


    Pat explains how Talcott Parsons's social systems theory relates to the key strategic decision in Episode 2 of Survivor: David vs. Goliath - Lyrsa and Elizabeth's targeting of Jessica instead of Carl.

    Pre-season: The TDT DvG contestant draft

    Published: September 22, 2018

    The True Dork Times writers come together to draft fantasy teams of David vs. Goliath contestants, in an attempt to win eternal* glory by having the team containing the winner. (*Offer expires roughly one month after the season ends.)

  • S36 logo Survivor 36: Ghost Island
    Well, in theory...

    Pre-Episode 14: Jury Jeopardy - S36

    Published: May 21, 2018


    The True Dork Times writers assemble once more to project the jury votes, while doing battle with scribes from other Survivor sites: InsideSurvivor, A Tribe of One, Purple Rock Podcast, and the RHAP bloggers. Who can boast the most votes noted for Ghost Island?

    Episode 13: Who still has a chance to actually win?

    Published: May 17, 2018


    With just the finale remaining, Pat asks how Ghost Island ranks as a Survivor season, and who among the remaining players is most likely to win.

    Episode 12: The expected utility of not moving

    Published: May 12, 2018


    Pat looks to Expected Utility theory to try to decipher Laurel's big decision in Episode 12 of Ghost Island - a decision that came out, once again, to result in not making a move.

    Episode 11: Cognitive dissonance and idle contestants

    Published: May 5, 2018


    Pat looks askance at the lackluster move-making thus far in the Ghost Island post-merge, and argues that several strategists' hesitance to change the game can be explained by the theory of cognitive dissonance.

    Episode 10: How to change someone's mind

    Published: April 29, 2018


    In analyzing the possibility of Big Moves actually taking place, Pat talks about the Elaboration Likelihood Model, and the central and peripheral routes to attitude change in the brain, and how this applies to Survivor.

    Episode 9: What the heck was Angela trying to do?

    Published: April 22, 2018


    Pat notes Angela's strategic and challenge-dominating breakout episode, and finds traces of agenda-setting theory in her efforts to target Michael: Not in directly calling for his ouster, but in framing the conversation around him.

    Episode 8: Self-efficacy and the path of least resistance

    Published: April 17, 2018


    Pat looks at the strategic choices made following the Survivor: Ghost Island merge, and uses the concept of self-efficacy and perceived access to power to explain the decision to target Chris.

    Episode 7: The annual merge-time Power Rankings!

    Published: April 6, 2018


    With seven Ghost Island episodes in the books and the merge approaching, Pat takes a break from the theory and updates his pre-season contestant evaluations. Which player is now the most likely to win?

    Episode 6: Voting alone? Different types of social capital

    Published: April 2, 2018


    Pat finds support for Robert Putnam's concept of different types of social capital - bonded and bridged - in Angela's big decision between James and Naviti in Episode 6 of Ghost Island.

    Episode 5: Oh, those disruptive puzzles!

    Published: March 24, 2018


    Pat returns to talk about the theory of disruptive innovation, and how it applies to Survivor: As the formats of challenges have changed, a different kind of player has emerged as a challenge threat. Will the strategy adapt?

    Episode 3: How do we attribute that blindside?

    Published: March 10, 2018


    Pat explains attribution theory, and how internal vs. external attribution comes to bear in carrying out actions that go against one's instincts, such as Libby's decision to blindside her friend, Morgan, in Episode 3 of Survivor: Ghost Island.

    Episodes 1-2: Don't upset the machine, OK?

    Published: March 2, 2018


    Pat reflects on the twin exits from Survivor: Ghost Island's promising premiere. Using Gareth Morgan's metaphor of organizations as machines, both early boots stood apart in their individuality, upset the early tribe machines, and were removed. Plus a look ahead at the remaining contestants' chances.

    Pre-season: TDT Ghost Island contestant draft

    Published: February 22, 2018


    The True Dork Times writers (Andy Baker, Ben Martell, Dan Otsuki, Pat Ferrucci, Ryan Kaiser, and Jeff Pitman) assemble to draft fantasy teams of Ghost Island contestants, in an attempt to seize eternal* glory by having the team containing the winner. Unless one of the two undrafted players (Team Ghost) win, in which case everyone loses. (*Or until Fall of 2018, whichever comes first.)

    Pre-season: Which mistake will I repeat?

    Published: February 12, 2018


    After Pat restricts his pre-season perusal to just their CBS bios, he ranks the contestants of Survivor: Ghost Island into tiers of win probability: Likely, Possible, Unlikely, and Impossible. Who will be the unlucky victim of his cursed winner pick?

  • S35 logo Survivor 35: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers
    Chrissy and Ryan get lost in their own story

    Pre-Episode 14: Jury jeopardy - HvHvH

    Published: December 18, 2017


    The True Dork Times writers (Ben Martell, Dan Otsuki, Pat Ferrucci, and Jeff Pitman) combine their predictive powers to forecast the voting preferences of the Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers jurors, with an eye to predicting the winner. And, of course, beating Inside Survivor, A Tribe of One, Purple Rock Podcast, and the RHAP bloggers at the same game.

    Episode 13: Where does it all stand?

    Published: December 15, 2017


    With just five players remaining, Pat evaluates how close they may come to the million-dollar prize, as we count down to the season finale of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 12: Let's have a chat about hypocrisy

    Published: December 8, 2017


    Pat describes self-justification theory, specifically external self-justification, evident in Survivor players who excuse their own behavior while criticizing the same actions by others. He then looks ahead and hopes to avoid similar behavior from jurors.

    Episode 11: Chrissy and Ryan get lost in their own story

    Published: December 4, 2017


    Pat uses narrative transportation theory to explain Chrissy and Ryan's mistaken comfort in the alliance of seven, leading to its epic blindside and Lauren's new alliance's game-changing power shift in Episodes 10-11 of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 9: Ben needs a lesson in mass communication theory... badly

    Published: November 24, 2017


    Pat explains agenda-setting theory, the art of framing what to think about, but not how to think, and contrasts Chrissy and Ben's patterns of persuasion in Episode 9 of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 7: Who holds the golden fleece after the merge?

    Published: November 10, 2017


    Pat explores the black sheep effect, and argues that by ignoring it, the majority alliance made the wrong move at the merge of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 6: Who holds the power at the merge?

    Published: November 5, 2017


    Pat takes a one-week sabbatical from the theory in order to assess the events of Episode 6, and how they affect the remaining contestants' chances of winning Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 5: The ego and its utility, a tale of conflicting ethics

    Published: October 27, 2017


    Pat examines Ryan's swing vote decision, and most Survivor gameplay, through the conflicting ethical theories of ethical egoism and utilitarianism, and how the best plays appear to be the latter while actually adhering to the former.

    Episode 4: It's all about cohesion, the cohesion of the group

    Published: October 20, 2017


    Pat evaluates the tribal swap through the lens of group cohesion theory, and finds the new Levu tribe lacking, as seen in Episode 4 of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 3: His name was Patrick. Now it's Matthew

    Published: October 14, 2017


    Pat refutes Malcolm Gladwell's outlier hypothesis, instead arguing that Robert Merton's theory of cumulative advantage applies better to Survivor, as seen in Patrick's exit from Episode 3 of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 2: You're a hustler. A hustler. You are. Yes you.

    Published: October 6, 2017


    Pat looks at identity priming theory, and how this affects Survivor players' early tribal boot decisions, as seen in Episode 2 of Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers.

    Episode 1: Let's talk some in-group and some out-group

    Published: October 2, 2017


    Pat focuses on a relevant facet of social identity theory, in-group/ out-group bias, to help explain why Katrina was the first person voted out in Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers. Then he looks at the tribes in greater depth.

    Pre-season: Who am I going to curse this season?

    Published: September 23, 2017


    Pat Ferrucci examines the cast of Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers, and makes his semi-annual game-cursing winner's pick, then ranks the remaining contestants' chances.

    Pre-season: TDT Survivor: HHH contestant draft

    Published: September 22, 2017


    Ben Martell, Dan Otsuki, Pat Ferrucci, and Jeff Pitman come together to rank and draft fantasy teams of the contestants from Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers. Who will reign supreme?

  • S34 logo Survivor 34: Game Changers
    Jury jeopardy S34

    Pre-Ep.14: Jury jeopardy S34

    Published: May 23, 2017


    The True Dork Times writers (Ben, Dan, Pat, Jeff) combine their prognosticatory powers to predict the outcome of the Game Changers jury vote. And beat RHAP, Inside Survivor, and Reality Blurred, of course.

    Ep.13: Where do we stand? (A look at the Final 6)

    Published: May 22, 2017


    Pat dispenses with the theory, looks back at this week's two boots, then takes a final look ahead, ranking the remaining six Game Changers by order of likelihood to win.

    Ep.12: Do it and do it swiftly

    Published: May 13, 2017


    Pat examines Swift Trust Theory, and whether the short-term trust established by sharing a secret Advantage is enough to build a bond in Survivor. The answer? Not in Sierra's case, apparently.

    Ep.11: Don't rock the boat - we like it stable

    Published: May 7, 2017


    Pat applies the concept of social stability to explain the (non-Andrea) majority alliance members' willingness to go along with booting Zeke, and other observations from Episode 11 of Game Changers.

    Ep.10: Sarah revolts against dominance

    Published: May 1, 2017


    Pat describes how social dominance theory (SDT) applies to Survivor, specifically Sarah's perception that she was at the bottom of the six-person alliance's hierarchy, and how it induced her move to change the game.

    Eps.8-9: Booting Hali the rational choice

    Published: April 24, 2017


    To examine this week's two boots, Pat employs rational choice theory, arguing that Hali was the rational choice for the first post-merge boot, not because she was a threat, but because she wasn't.

    Ep.7: With the merge comes power rankings

    Published: April 17, 2017


    Pat eschews theory this week, in favor of examining the impact of Zeke's outing (and Varner's ouster) in Ep.7 of Game Changers, and looking ahead at the contestants' relative winning chances, heading into the merge.

    Ep.6: The drive to boot Sandra

    Published: April 9, 2017


    Pat dips into Drive Theory, and argues that in order to please the audience, returnees are driven to target former winners, as seen in Sandra's ouster in Episode 6 ("Vote Early, Vote Often") of Survivor: Game Changers.

    Ep.5: To compare or not to compare

    Published: April 3, 2017


    Pat compares JT's seasons, then delves into Social Comparison theory, in order to explain JT's curious conclusion that he was in a better position than Michaela in Episode 5 ('Dirty Deed') of Survivor: Game Changers.

    Ep.4: Producers innovate, but it's unfortunately disruptive

    Published: March 28, 2017


    Pat applies the theory of disruptive innovation to the Tribal Council twist (and gift idol) in Episode 4 ('The Tables Have Turned') of Survivor: Game Changers, and wonders what industry will be toppled, besides Malcolm's.

    Ep.3: Organize differently and boom, different culture

    Published: March 17, 2017


    Pat looks in depth at organization theory, and how social norms affect Survivor performance after a tribe swap, as in Episode 3 ("Survivor Jackpot") of Survivor: Game Changers.

    Eps.1-2: This cast is sure primed for fun

    Published: March 10, 2017


    Pat looks again at priming theory, and how the host's repetition of the theme is designed to inspire and drive the gameplay on Survivor, this time with Game Changers.

    Cast: And the winner? I don't know?

    Published: March 2, 2017


    Pat tries (again) to pick a winner, after sorting the Game Changers contestants into groups of people whose winning chances are: Likely, Possible, Unlikely, and Impossible.

  • S33 logo Survivor 33: Millennials vs. Gen X
    Pre-Ep.14: Jury jeopardy

    Pre-Episode 14: Jury jeopardy

    Published: December 12, 2016


    Jeff Pitman, Andy Baker, and Pat Ferrucci join the Survivor Blogoverse prediction game, facing off against their compatriots at Inside Survivor, Reality Blurred, and the RHAP blogs in trying to forecast the jury votes of Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episode 13: Who holds the most finale power?

    Published: December 11, 2016


    As the finale approaches, Pat Ferrucci makes a final assessment of the season as a whole (entertaining!) and the remaining six's chances of winning Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episode 12: Will seeks his trophy, Zeke hits the road

    Published: December 4, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci takes a look into trophy culture, and how the self-esteem movement may have affected Will's quest for (recognition of) a Big Move™ in Episode 12 of Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episodes 10 & 11: Jessica's dismissal just part of the agensa

    Published: November 26, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci looks at agenda-setting theory, and how the Survivors' focus on the David-vs.-Zeke clash prevented them from steering away from the rock-drawing abyss in Episodes 10 & 11 of Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episode 8: How the castaways stack up post-merge

    Published: November 13, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci takes a one-week break from the theory to predict which of the remaining dozen castaways now possess the greatest chances to win Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episode 7: Michaela gets dysfunctional, gets dys-boot

    Published: November 5, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci looks at the functional theory of leadership, and argues that Michaela's boot stemmed from her failing to provide the style of leadership Jay and Will wanted, in Episode 7 of Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episode 6: Figgy sees selectively, gets the boot

    Published: October 31, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci says seletive exposure theory explains how Figgy chose to see only the good aspects of her game, ignoring the glaring downsides, which led to her boot in Episode 6 of Millennials vs. Gen X.

    Episode 5: David continues forcing others to innovate

    Published: October 24, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci argues that David's moves have been successful because his disruptive innovation has shaken up the stolid Gen X tribe, putting them off their games, and may continue working going forward.

    Episode 4: Dissonance dismisses silence

    Published: October 18, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci ponders cognitive dissonance, and posits that it explains Jessica's inability to trust Ken's otherwise credible information that Lucy was targeting her, leading to David's idol play.

    Episode 3: Paul's poorly framed response sinks him

    Published: October 7, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci looks at framing theory, with respect to the manner in which Paul presented his alliance's future plans to Jessica, and how it failed.

    Episode 2: Michelle guides the organism

    Published: October 3, 2016


    Pat returns to the metaphor of the organization as organism, and looks at how Michelle expertly and subtly guided the group of Millennials.

    Episode 1: All about the power of the prime

    Published: September 23, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci looks at Priming Theory, such as the outsized role that Probst and production, in emphasizing the season theme, influence the contestants' behavior. And then revisits his rankings.

    Pre-season: And the winner? I don't know?

    Published: September 17, 2016


    Pat ranks the new Millennials vs. Gen X contestants into four categories: "Frontrunners"; "Eh, Maybe"; "I'm Thinking No" and the ill-fated "No Chance in Hell." And then he eventually picks out a potential winner.

  • S32 logo Survivor 32: Kaoh Rong
    So this is how it ends...

    Ep.14: So this is how it ends...

    Published: May 22, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci looks back, again with confirmation bias, at the disappointing season finale of Survivor: Kaoh Rong.

    Pre-Ep.14: Jury Jeopardy

    Published: May 16, 2016


    Jeff Pitman and Pat Ferrucci team up in an attempt to predict the likely votes of the Survivor: Kaoh Rong jury members.

    Ep.13: A winner's edit? How each remaining castaway can take home the money

    Published: May 14, 2016


    Pat looks at the four remaining players, tries to dispense with confirmation bias, and maps out their best path to the million-dollar prize of Survivor: Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.12: Tai's a metaphor for a bad player

    Published: May 7, 2016


    To look at the curious fractures in the final five's alliance in Episode 12 of Kaoh Rong, Pat turns to organization as organisms theory, and finds that Tai's attempted move upset the organism.

    Ep.11: Michele follows along to someone else's agenda

    Published: May 1, 2016


    Pat looks again to agenda-setting theory, and finds a disparity between Michele's talk about her own game and the coveted Big Moves™ that juries allegedly reward, at least through Episode 11 of Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.10: Tai doesn't let ethics tie him down

    Published: April 22, 2016


    Pat Ferrucci tries to find an ethical theory that supports Tai's highly conflicted decision in Episode 10 of Kaoh Rong, and comes up with consequentialism.

    Ep.9: Lack of regulation dooms Debbie

    Published: April 15, 2016


    Pat sees Debbie's downfall as a lack of self-regulation on Cydney and Aubry's part, and proposes an alternative path that might have saved Debbie, on Episode 9 of Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.8: A story Nick didn't quite understand

    Published: April 10, 2016


    Pat looks at narrative transportation theory, to explain the disconnect between Nick's self-aggrandizing perception of his own gameplay and the playing that actually happened on Episode 8 of Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.7: Emerging power

    Published: April 1, 2016


    As the Kaoh Rong merge arrives then leaves without a Tribal Council, Pat takes a spring break from theories, and assesses the relative power ranks of the remaining players.

    Ep.6: Ironically, Peter is not so attractive?

    Published: March 25, 2016


    Using the reward theory of attraction, Pat finds that Peter's self-described attractiveness provided few rewards for Aubry, contributing to her decision to vote him out of Kaoh Rong this week.

    Ep.5: An exchange Anna hopes to forget

    Published: March 18, 2016


    Pat uses social exchange theory as a means to explain the poor returns Anna received from her post-swap attempts to make Tai appear an idol threat to her new tribemates in Ep.5 of Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.4: Brawn depletes its ability to keep Alecia around

    Published: March 11, 2016


    Pat wonders if ego depletion theory explains Brawn's inability to win challenges through Ep.4 of Kaoh Rong, and how things might have played out differently if they'd booted Alecia in the first episode.

    Ep.3: How self-perception took down the Brains

    Published: March 4, 2016


    Pat finds that Liz and Peter's self-perception of being super-smart doomed their interactions with their fellow Brains and Liz's chances in Ep.3 of Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.2: Jenny shows everyone how not to play Survivor

    Published: February 26, 2016


    Pat sees cognitive dissonance as a possible reason for Jennifer's tumultuous Tribal Council performance on the second episode of Kaoh Rong.

    Ep.1: Producers prime those identities right away

    Published: February 19, 2016


    Pat uses Social Identity Theory (SIT) and priming theory to explain why the contestants so quickly embraced their assigned tribal identities in the Kaoh Rong premiere.

    Pre-season: Trying to predict a season based on, um... nothing

    Published: February 11, 2016


    "Meet the Cast" along with Pat, as he watches the newbie players' introductory video, reads their bios, then tries to evaluate how they'll far during the Kaoh Rong season.

  • S31 logo Survivor 31: Cambodia - Second Chance
    Wrapping up a stellar season

    Episode 14: Wrapping up a stellar season

    Published: December 18, 2015


    ...figuratively and literally, of Survivor. After praising the finale, Pat looks back at his Survivor: Cambodia pre-season predictions, to see how they planned out.

    Episode 13: Planning behavior before the finale

    Published: December 11, 2015


    Theory of planned behavior, which is Pat's best fit for explaining why Jeremy, Tasha, Kimmi, and Spencer booted Abi, rather than dragging her to the finals of Survivor: Cambodia.

    Episode 12: Spiraling toward what could be an amazing end

    Published: December 6, 2015


    Spiral of silence theory, and how it explains why nobody seems to pointing out the obvious: that Joe can probably never win Survivor.

    Episode 11: Construction junction, how do you function?

    Published: November 29, 2015


    A double dose of Thanksgiving Survivor leads Pat to ponder social constructionism and the rise of the voting bloc in Second Chance.

    Episode 9: Did Stephen just open or close the gate to winning?

    Published: November 20, 2015


    Pat applies gatekeeping theory to Stephen's Big Move™ and examines the various influences that drove him to act during Episode 9 of Cambodia - Second Chance.

    Episode 8: Second Chance primed for an incredible end game

    Published: November 13, 2015


    Pat talks about priming theory, and how Jeff Probst has primed both players and audience to interpret Big Moves™ as winning strategy, even when the actual evidence of that is at best lacking.

    Episode 7: Framing how it all went down

    Published: November 6, 2015


    Pat looks at framing theory, particularly how Kass, Ciera, Savage, and Tasha framed their stories to achieve their desired results in the Cambodia merge episode.

    Episode 6: Follow the leader... or not

    Published: October 30, 2015


    Pat looks at Edgar Schein's theory of organizational culture, particularly as it applies to Andrew Savage's leading (or not) of the new Ta Keo tribe.

    Episode 5: Let's get ethical

    Published: October 23, 2015


    Pat examines how differing ethical viewpoints and theories (such as utilitarianism in Kimmi's case, or ethical egoism in Monica's) can work for or against a player in the context of Survivor.

    Episode 4: Abi continues cultivating an irrational gameplan

    Published: October 16, 2015


    Pat uses cultivation theory in an attempt to explain the origins of Abi-Maria's Survivor worldview (watching Survivor makes her think everyone's out to get her).

    Episode 3: Tasha sets the Tribal agenda

    Published: October 9, 2015


    Pat explains how Tasha's attempt to label Varner a rat (thereby shifting the target away from Savage and herself) serves as an example of agenda-setting theory.

    Episode 2: Lesson Learned: Varner Teaches the Old School

    Published: October 2, 2015


    Pat sees evidence of social learning theory in Episode 2's strategic moves by Terry (also Spencer), and hangs the teacher tag squarely on Jeff Varner.

    Episode 1: Vytas, SIT down

    Published: September 25, 2015


    Pat applies Social Identity Theory to Episode 1 of Second Chance, and finds it fits the Ta Keo tribe's divisions (and Varner's questioning where he falls within those divisions) quite neatly.

    Pre-season: Survivor: Cambodia preview

    Published: September 15, 2015


    Pat takes a contestant-by-contestant look at the cast of Survivor: Cambodia - Second Chance, and their prospects for winning.