There was so much madness in last week’s episode, my head is still spinning trying to figure out who flipped the target and why it happened. Normally, I’d sift through every syllable spoken to break it down, but I’m on the road this week. I barely had the time to write this week’s intro let alone transcribe last week’s episode to figure out how the target bounced from Brady to Mike to Kilby to Kristin then back to Brady.

I know the players are gonna split into pairs for this week’s Immunity Challenge, but I’m not sure if this cast saw the Survivor 50 pairs episode before leaving to film this season. If they know one of the pairs will be voted out, how will that affect how they choose their partners? Last season, the safest pair was Christian and Jonathan because both were valued members in opposing alliances. Both of them had multiple partners calling them their #1. And of course, when Coach partnered with Chrissy, they made themselves the obvious target for the opposing alliance.

If this season’s players know how it played out last season, I expect everyone to avoid Mike like the plague. He was the most obvious target until he won Immunity, so it figures he’s still in almost everyone’s sights even with Brady on the Ponderosa. The only one who might embrace him is Jelly since she could protect them both with her Idol…if she doesn’t mind burning that Idol so early.

But if this season’s players didn’t see last season’s duos twist, they won’t know the danger of pairing up with an obvious ally. For example, if Eric and Cristian pair up and don’t win Immunity, they’d stand out as a target for the Toka group. The same would be true about Devin and Jelly, but of course, they have an Idol and an Extra Vote for protection.

That brings me to this week’s Damnbueno Open Era random reference.

Tyler Fredrickson

According to almost every member of the S30: Worlds Apart cast, Tyler was an extremely likable person with an absolutely side-splitting sense of humor. He’s the type of player who usually makes a deep run because their personality is so compelling people would keep them around because they were sure to break up the boredom. Those who played with Coach saw him as harmless but didn’t vote him out because his far-fetched stories kept them entertained. Unfortunately for Tyler, his personality got completely shoved into the background because S30 was filled with Alphas (Rodney, Mike, Joey Amazing), narcissistic whack jobs (Shirin, Max, Vince), and short-tempered, confrontational people (Dan, Will) who sucked up all the camera time. It’s a shame too, because like Elaine Stott and Devin Pinto who I wrote about earlier this season, Tyler played a very strong game.

Tyler, who was a placekicker and punter for the NFL Raiders and Redskins (in preseason) started S30 on the yellow White Collar tribe. He quickly formed a partnership with Carolyn Rivera, who trusted him enough to tell him she’d found the yellow White Collar tribe Idol. Much like Sharonda and Kristin, Tyler and Carolyn managed to conceal how close they were to the other players. Tyler got in good with everyone on their tribe, bonding with Carolyn, Joaquin and So by uniting in their shared dislike of Shirin and Max. That duo (like Eric this season) simply couldn’t contain their enthusiasm to experience everything Survivor by constantly babbling about Survivor trivia and even walking around naked like Richard Hatch.

Tyler fell on the wrong side of a swap with himself, Joaquin, and Joey Amazing finding themselves on a tribe with four Blue Collar members. But since Joey stood out as a challenge beast and Joaquin got too obviously close to Rodney, Tyler was never in danger. Tyler noticed the huge cracks in the Blue Collar players. Mike and Rodney fought constantly. Dan was delusional and thought he was heroically leading all of them. And Sierra couldn’t stand any of them. Just the same Tyler connected well with Rodney and missed an opportunity to lure a clearly unhappy Sierra to his side. Tyler still easily made it to the merge where he reconnected with Carolyn in the strongest duo of that season. At the merge, Tyler correctly observed that pairs were being targeted and advised Carolyn they should keep their closeness on the down low.

Tyler made two mistakes that led to his failure. First, Joey Amazing found a clue to a new merge Idol while on a Reward (Jenn had already found the red No Collar tribe Idol). He shared the info with Tyler, but neither of them noticed Mike was watching them. Mike confronted the duo. Tyler made the mistake thinking he could earn Mike’s trust by revealing the clue info, so he gave him the accurate info. Mike ended up finding an Idol (which had blue markings on it, and may or may not have been the original Blue Collar tribe Idol). Second, after Joey Amazing won the first two post-merge Individual Immunity Challenges, Tyler won the 3rd, battling Jenn to the end. While everyone jumped at the chance to boot Joey Amazing, Tyler’s win elevated his own beast status. Everyone knew Tyler could beat them for Immunity now.

Mike used his Idol to save himself at final 7. To Tyler’s surprise, Carolyn lined up new partners, betrayed Tyler, and lined him up as the backup vote. Tyler got voted out when Mike played the Idol. Tyler claimed not to be bitter at Carolyn but ended up voting for Mike to win the game. Had Tyler lied to Mike about the Idol clue he could have sent Mike on a wild goose chase. By that time, Mike had already blown up his position in the game and could only stay if he won Immunity or played an Idol. Had Tyler found an Idol himself, he most likely tells Carolyn, who is less able to blindside him. At a minimum, Tyler makes it past final 7 and Mike likely gets voted out. Being in the final 6 with an Idol is a strong position to hold.

I think Sharonda and Kristin are in a similar position as Carolyn and Tyler were. They have a partnership that most don’t suspect they have and an Idol nobody knows about. If they stay loyal, we could easily see them both in the final 5. But if one decides the other can beat them for the million (like Carolyn did with Tyler), we could see one of them leave much sooner.

Will Sharonda and Kristin pair up this week, knowing the Idol can protect them both? Will Eric spend 3 hours trying to catch a 3-inch fish only to return and see he’s stuck with Mike as his partner? If Thien An gets paired with Cristian, will they disappear as quickly as their confessionals? Let’s find out.

And away we go …

---

Mike apologizes for blindsiding Brady. Bad move dude. If by chance you make it to the finals, you have to proudly own your moves. You just killed that possibility now. Mike in confessional “It ended up being a lot sloppier and messy than I intended.” To quote Jessica Lewis “You think?”

Eric says to the tribe, “I want to have an open forum,” and the silence is deafening. Eric doesn’t know his Survivor history, does he? The last guy who requested an “open forum” was Garrett Adelstein from S28: Cagayan. They blindsided him at the next vote. It looks like Eric and Mike are battling to be the next one booted. Who can create the most reasons to want them gone?

Maybe Devin just named Mike the winner?

Maggie to Mike: “If I was the last person to get information, I’d think ‘Maybe people don’t trust me.' I want to work with you, but I don’t know if you can keep your mouth shut.” Mike looks shocked at this possibility. I thought he got a bad read on the room, but it might be worse than I thought.

But Mike has a valid point when he asks Maggie “You get mad at me for being down in a rabbit hole, AND for coming up out of the hole and making a move. Where do you want me to be?” Touché, Mike. Just the same, her position in the game is better than yours. You should be trying to make allies. Just nod, smile and make her believe she can manipulate your vote. That’s the only way she won’t want you gone.

Carter in confessional: “I want to put together a group of people who aren’t gonna be wishy-washy.” That’s a great plan dude ... if you started it on day 2 or 3. He wants to include Lewis, Kilby, Cristian, Thien An, and Maggie. I wonder why he thinks Maggie and Kilby are so reliable?

Carter considers “the big targets” to be Mike, Jelly, Eric, Devin, Sharonda and Kristin. I agree with him about Sharonda and Kristin. Much respect to you Carter. You’re smarter than I gave you credit for.

Cristian wants to add another original Savu to their alliance. Then Carter shows him the Idol nobody knew he had. I take back the compliment I just gave you, Carter.

Cristian in confessional: “While Carter doesn’t seem like a game player, he really is.” Congratulations, Carter. You just created a reason for Cristian to want you gone. It may not be at this vote, but it’s gonna happen.

Lewis reads the Treemail about the duos twist, and in confessional, Kristin says she knows all about the Season 50 twist. Now the question is, who is gonna get stuck with Mike?

Mike: “Do you want to go with me, Mags?” Her expression says it all. Inside she’s thinking “Holy shit no, dude!!!”

But she accepts! Did she panic? Why not just pretend you didn’t hear him and immediately ask Lewis or Devin? But I suppose Mike deserves props for picking someone he knows most people don’t want to remove yet.

Kristin picks Kilby. To quote Queen Sandra, “I don’t know about thaaaaaat.” Lewis picks Sharonda. That’s a smart move for both of them. Jelly ends up with Devin which means they’ll get votes if they don’t win. Bad move for both of them. That leaves Thien An with Eric. That’s a horrible draw for her.

Based on nothing at all, I like Lewis and Sharonda to win Immunity.

Last week, I said I was happy that Brady wasn’t gonna be on the jury. I couldn’t sit through more “brody” quotes. Then I learned he was gonna be the first juror. Imagine my happiness when Probst said Brady went home to tend to his thumb? I must have done something to appease the Survivor Gods. That should also make Maggie and Kilby happy. Brady seemed unlikely to vote for either of them.

Of course it’s a massive obstacle course.

Probst confirms one of the pairs will be voted out, and Maggie’s face reflects nothing but regret. Thien An doesn’t look happy to be with Eric either.

We’ve seen differing versions of every part of this challenge. I like that they changed it up a bit. That way there’s a new element/learning curve in every phase. Kristin has a broken foot. She’s gonna have trouble balancing that ball no matter which foot she puts on the beam. She puts her injured left foot on the beam.

And sure enough, Kristin and Kilby are the first ones out. She did well in the last Immunity Challenge, finishing third. Will that come back to haunt her like it did with Tyler?

Mike and Maggie are out next. Did they just save Kristin?

Eric starts babbling again, and Carter reflects how everyone feels about him.

And mercifully, Eric talks himself out of this challenge. Yeah, he’s not winning this game.

Lewis and Sharonda sandbag and drop out on purpose. I love this move. Let Devin & Jelly and Cristian & Carter exhaust themselves and grab that challenge beast label in the process. They also get more time to rest their legs for the other parts of the challenge. Carter & Lewis win round 1. That’s only good for them if they’re gunning for Devin & Jelly.

It’s rare that Survivor shows exactly where each team/tribe stands in a challenge. They usually include singular shots, so Probst sounds more believable when he says how close the challenge is. A shot like this leaves no doubt that Cristian and Carter are killing it. They only have five pieces left.

This last part of the challenge reminds me of the pot stacking challenge used in S24: One World, S27: Blood vs. Water, S33: Millennials vs. Gen X, S43, and S45.

Yeah, the stress of spending 43 minutes on that balance beam is showing in this last part.

Cristian & Carter lose their entire stack. After being wrong so much last week, could I have gotten this one right? Are Lewis & Sharonda gonna pull it out?

Wow, they did it! They barely get to celebrate when their entire stack falls. Now that was an exciting challenge.

Lewis decides to send Cristian to Exile. Smart move. If he gets an Idol or an Advantage, he probably won’t use it against any of his allies. Carter will benefit from it too if it gets used tonight.

Two people get to eat too? I might choose one who I want to vote out. Send that person out of the game feeling good about you. They choose Kristin and Jelly. Eric is crushed. Does he still think he’s running the game like he did last week when he tried to take credit for the Brady boot?

Interesting. Lewis didn’t choose anyone from the new “Salt” alliance of himself, Cristian, Carter, Kilby and Thien An to share the food. He left his allies back at camp to gather info while he gathers info from those he might want gone. That’s a smart move. Sharonda, Kristin and Jelly might all have their guard down.

Jelly blabs her plan to go after Cristian and Carter. That’s a bad move, not because of her targets, but because 1) She’s the first to throw out a name, which is always risky, and 2) she also identified Maggie as an ally. I’d expect Devin to do that. Methinks Devin and Jelly will save themselves with her Idol tonight.

Kilby thinks he’s doing a good job of appeasing Devin. I think Kilby is in for a surprise. He seems to have forgotten both Devin and Jelly have already written his name down.

Carter targets Devin and Jelly. He’s in for a surprise unless Devin’s big mouth tells someone about Jelly’s Idol.

It sucks that Cristian is immediately screwed through no fault of his own. He’s got to find a buoy with a clue on it. That’s a little like the seashell challenge Cirie had to do last season. If I’m Cristian, I throw each bad buoy on the sand so I don’t keep searching the same ones.

Oh, some buoys have letters on them? Those are the ones I throw on the sand.

Props to Cristian for solving the clue. I actually think this one was harder than the one Christian Hubicki had last season.

I’d hate to be on the crew that had to retrieve all of those buoys.

Jelly: “I love Carter, but we have never voted together.” That’s a bad reason to use in a pitch. Why should Kristin, Eric, Sharonda or Maggie want to vote someone out simply because it makes Jelly’s game easier? Jelly needs to create a reason for them to believe Cristian and/or Carter is working against THEM.

Kristin: “Come on, Maggie. Are we gonna play together or not?” Maggie: “You’re so intimidating, Kristin!” Good lord Maggie, that’s a horrible response. You might as well have just spit in her face. At least give Kristin some reason to believe you’re open to working with her, even if it’s a blatant lie. Remember, you might need her Jury vote too.

But Kristin doesn’t do herself any favors by trying to convince Maggie she’s unarmed. The last person I remember doing that is Matt Bischoff from S26: Caramoan. He was so convincing he talked Cochran into voting him out.

Cristian tells everyone the truth about his impending search. BAD MOVE. If someone wants you out, you just told them to follow you around camp. I thought Cristian was smarter than that.

And sure enough, Mike follows him. Now, if Cristian finds something, Mike will tell everyone. If Cristian was able to find something without anyone knowing, he could control the vote by playing dead, drawing votes his way, then booting his target.

Cristian gets an Extra Vote for one Tribal Council. It’s late and I don’t want to do the math, but I wonder if this will make any difference at all?

Cristian: “And now, Carter and I can run this game.” No, you MIGHT have been able to do that if Mike didn’t know you found an Advantage.

Carter talks Devin & Jelly into going after Kristin & Kilby. He’d better hope his decoy plan doesn’t get back to Kilby.

Cristian emerges as the voice of reason. They should consider splitting the vote or at least putting a vote on a secondary target.

Thien An asks Sharonda who she’s targeting, and Sharonda point blank says, “I’m not voting for Devin & Jelly.” My mouth hit the floor. Why not just say, “I’m aligned with them and if you’re targeting them, I’m your enemy?” I thought Sharonda was smarter than that.

But she tips off Devin and Jelly about the move against them. If they’re smart, they’ll use Jelly’s Idol.

Hmm ... I wonder what happens if both Jelly and Carter play their Idols, and nobody else gets any votes?

Wow, Maggie is already whispering to Mike as soon as Tribal Council begins. Do people have so little trust in him, they’re not willing to tell him the plan until someone is answering a question from Probst?

Cristian gives his Extra Vote to Eric. I guess that means Cristian is gonna play his Shot in the Dark?

I think Carter has said, “Stick to the plan” more than Keith Nale ever did. I also think we’re gonna see two Idols being played. Carter will play his right after Jelly plays hers.

Eric refuses to play Cristian’s Extra Vote on the only night it can be played. What’s the point of doing that? Why not just play it as an insurance vote – maybe against Mike and Maggie just in case something goes wrong?

Jelly makes the smart move and plays her Idol. That was the only way to be sure. Your turn, Carter.

Kristin plays her Shot in the Dark. They’re not safe. Make that move, Carter.

Cristian plays his Shot in the Dark. It’s an absolute no-brainer now. If it comes up “Not Safe,” Carter MUST play that Idol. Did Eric’s decision just change the vote?

But they’re safe! That’s a shocker. Now Eric can keep his Idol. My bad, Carter. I was wrong.

We hear “Devin & Jelly, does not count” eight times. Kelley Wentworth still holds the record. One vote left. Eric’s refusal to use Cristian’s Extra Vote might have made a difference.

Kristin knows she’s gone.

And sure enough, she is.

Hmm ... both times a pair has been voted out, Probst made the woman go up first to have her torch snuffed. Last season, it was Chrissy. I wonder if they adjust the pay scale so the pair gets the same amount of money? If they don’t, Probst might have some explaining to do.

Four people get up to hug Kilby, but we don’t see anyone hugging Kristin. We even see Thien An crying as Kilby grabs his torch. Did people like him that much? I must have underestimated his social game. I thought a lot of people were upset with him.

Kristin might have been a little too convincing. Word might have gotten to Jelly about her being unarmed, and Jelly likely told Devin to vote for her.

Recap

My head is spinning again. Not because the vote was shocking or surprising (it wasn’t), but because I have no idea where this season is going.

Sure, Devin & Jelly saved themselves, but their status didn’t change at all. They’re still the top targets. Mike and Eric were only spared because they were paired with players nobody wanted gone.

Carter’s new alliance immediately lost a member, and we learned Eric simply can’t be relied upon to keep his word. Why would Cristian trust him with info about another Advantage should he find one? Why would he ever tell Eric about Carter’s Idol?

Sharonda kept her options open with Devin & Jelly, but completely cut off Thien An. Thien An will surely start rallying others against the player who won’t work with her. And with Kristin gone, Sharonda no longer has the protection of an Idol.

I suppose Lewis had a good episode. He picked a strong challenge partner. His voice was heard when choosing a target. He sent the right person to Exile. And even though he lost Kilby, he no longer has an obligation to return the favor Kilby did for him two votes ago when Linnea left. On top of that, juror Kilby loves him. Lewis has a great shot at getting Kilby’s vote.

There is no frontrunner this season. Everyone left in the game has done harm to their own strategic or social game. That tells me we won’t have an elite-level winner. We probably won’t even have a tragic robbed God/Goddess who goes out at #4 or 5.

Just the same, I’m still enjoying this season. The pure randomness has been entertaining.

What do you think? Am I missing some solid social/strategic game play? Was it smart for Sharonda to point blank tell Thien An she won’t vote for Devin or Jelly? Should Cristian have given his Extra Vote to the more dependable Lewis or Maggie instead of Eric? Let me know in the comments.