Last week, we saw two of this season’s players see their game heavily damaged by an alliance partner – someone they thought would be watching their back and were working with them to advance in the game. Carter’s #1 partner was Rob, who was playing a very aggressive game, then suddenly decided to quit. Carter found himself as the outsider on his tribe and the most likely to be voted out next. But Carter caught a few breaks. First, before quitting, Rob gave his Idol to Carter. Then Carter won a random draw that gave him access to an Extra Vote Advantage, AND the opportunity to switch tribes. When all was said and done, Carter found himself on an 11-person tribe with an Idol nobody knows he has. But thanks to Rob, he had to start all over on day 6.

The other player was Patt. She was in a 5-person alliance on her 10-member tribe. She had also made a strong connection with Jenna after helping Jenna escape the first vote. But just like Carter, Patt chose unreliable alliance partners. She watched Devin blow up their first Tribal Council by aggressively declaring his intention to vote for Jenna (which guaranteed she’d play her Shot in the Dark). Patt knew Devin couldn’t be counted on to keep his mouth shut. Patt also chose a horrible partner in Brady. She stood dumbfounded when Brady chopped off the tip of his thumb and his priority was to do pushups to prove he could stay in the game. She also saw Brady butting heads with Devin. These were clear warning signs that Patt should have listened to. Brady and Devin expect their partners to work FOR them, not WITH them.

In her Exit Interviews, Patt claims Brady referred to his alliance as the “Vibe Five” to those outside the alliance, and that’s why swing votes Lewis and Carter knew not to vote with those five. It’s also part of the reason Thien An chose Patt as her target. Everyone outside that alliance seemed to know they were together except Kilby. Patt got voted out in part because of Brady’s big mouth.

Maybe if Patt had recognized these warning signs, she’d have established or strengthened connections with those outside of her alliance (Thien An, Lewis, Carter, Jenna, Maggie & Kilby). Patt could have created reasons for those outsiders to believe she was willing to work with them AGAINST the volatile Brady and Devin. But instead, Patt let her relationship with Jenna fade out of fear of angering Devin who might still want Jenna gone.

This begs the question: When should you change your alliance? When should you replace an alliance partner you suspect will hurt your game? This question brings me to this week’s Damnbueno Open Era (not-so) random reference:

Brenda Lowe

Two-time player (S21: Nicaragua & S26: Caramoan) Brenda played a strong game both times. She entered the merge in a strong position to win the game twice. She reached the final 5 in Caramoan, but I’m gonna focus on her rookie effort. In Nicaragua, Brenda and Sash formed what she thought was a strong alliance with Chase, NaOnka and Purple Kelly. They took control of the tribe when Brenda engineered Shannon’s exit at their first Tribal Council. After a swap, Brenda helped lure Marty and Jane to her side. She entered the merge with the most partners and options available to her. Brenda only really made one mistake.

Before the tribe swap, Brenda’s partner NaOnka got caught stealing Fabio’s socks and blatantly wearing them around camp. Later, NaOnka stole some of her tribe’s food as well as some pots and other utensils. After failing to sell a few horrible lies about it, NaOnka tried to ignore the whole incident by refusing to discuss it and lashing out at those who still questioned her. This was the warning sign Brenda ignored. After NaOnka established herself as a thief with a volatile temper and no intention to take responsibility for her actions, Brenda should have replaced NaOnka in her alliance with a more dependable player like Alina, Kelly Bruno or Benry. But Brenda chose to stick with NaOnka. That ended up being her fatal mistake.

Brenda and NaOnka were separated after a swap. Brenda wasn’t around when Holly Hoffman slowly but surely lured NaOnka to her side. NaOnka eventually betrayed Brenda and helped vote her out at the merge, only to quit before the next Tribal Council. Brenda learned her lesson, but a little too late. When she returned to play in S26: Caramoan, she took the time to learn her tribemates better. She stayed away from the volatile Brandon Hantz, the annoying Phillip Sheppard and short-tempered Corinne. Brenda made it to the final 5 where she made an entirely different kind of fatal mistake. She won the Loved Ones Reward. Cochran saw how Brenda’s likability skyrocketed after giving so many jurors a visit with TWO of their loved ones, so he put Brenda on the jury. He knew she was unbeatable if she made it to the finals.

To be fair to Carter, there were no warning signs about Rob aside from maybe him lying about Eric Idol hunting when he was actually fishing. But I don’t think that’s enough to abandon a partner. Just the same, it’s always smart to make as many connections as possible just in case you need to change alliances, and Carter didn’t do that. On the other hand, Patt ignored clear signs from Devin and Brady that they were unreliable and could hurt her game. Devin tried to force his tribe to vote for Jenna. He did it again with Kilby. Odds are he’ll do it again. He’ll be difficult to manipulate or work with. Brady showed the same traits. She ignored those warning signs. Devin has been labeled a “leader” by both Kilby and Carter, and Carter has only been with the tribe for 2 days. Devin’s game is much too loud. If people don’t want to take Devin out, the next best choice is to take out his pocket vote.

Patt had a viable option after helping save Jenna but let that relationship fade just like Brenda did with Alina and Kelly Bruno. Patt also had opportunities to form side alliances with Maggie, Lewis, Kilby and Thien An. Had she done that, I might be writing about Mike instead of her. Jelly has already noted how Devin’s mouth has hurt her game. She already has options with Sharonda and Ori. Will she give herself more after the swap? Brady’s big mouth contributed to Patt’s removal. Brady pitched a partnership to Carter, who didn’t go for it, but at least Brady tried to give himself more options. But circumstances can change at any time in Survivor and we all know a swap is coming. If Carter ends up with Patt’s former partners Brady, Devin, Jelly or Mike, will he know how to adjust? Or will he let their mistakes hurt his game like Patt and Brenda did? Let’s find out.

And away we go ....

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Kilby: “Who voted for me?” Everybody except Brady fesses up. Brady’s failure to think ahead costs him here. He failed to follow the advice of Jesse Lopez from S43. Jesse broke it down into a three-step checklist. Brady went 0-for-3.

Jesse: “When you’re blindsiding somebody, you have to know what you’re doing here, otherwise, it might come back and blow up on you. So, here’s a checklist:

1. Have a cover story.

2. Throw the fall guy under the bus.

3. Have a backup plan.

Kilby in confessional: “I’m laughing at these people who had the audacity to think they could get away with making a five-person alliance on an 11-person tribe.”

Brady’s ‘Brody” count: 2.

Brady’s version of damage control is continuing to throw Kilby under the bus to the very people who just voted with Kilby? Does Brady think this will actually work? Then he jumps on Maggie too?

Is Jelly moping because she lost Patt, or because she knows she’s stuck with Brady and Devin? Has she not heard everyone talking about the swap they’re anticipating? Has she forgotten about her Helicopter alliance with Sharonda and Ori?

Alexis is leading a Yoga session. Yoga leaders don’t have a strong track record on Survivor. Ricard & Shantel (S41), Ryan (S43), Jaime (S44), Frannie (S44), and Shannon (S49) all led Yoga sessions for their tribes in recent seasons. None of them reached the finals. Either Kristin isn’t in to Yoga or her foot won’t let her participate. Either way, she should hang out with the majority.

Both Sharonda and Jenna are mad because they’re in a solid position on their tribe. Do they know what game they’re playing? How could they not suspect a swap would come at some point? They should have started preparing for this on day 1.

Jelly in confessional: “My game is gonna change for the better no matter how this goes.” Don’t bet on it. Watch her end up on a six-person tribe with four people who just voted Patt out.

Brady’s “Brody” count: 5.

Probst teases the One World concept. What a dick. I’d actually prefer that now to three small tribes.

Everybody is gonna grab a buff from the same bag? That means they don’t care about keeping even (or close to even) gender numbers. But pulling the bag out of the sand was pretty cool.

I wonder if he’s gonna open the extra buff first? If he did that, everyone who pulled the same color buff will instantly know they’re down in the numbers. If that’s you Jelly, this won’t be better for your game.

Sure enough, Jelly lands on the five-person tribe. But she’s got Devin and Ori with her.

My knee-jerk impressions: On Toka, Brady and Mike will battle Carter, Maggie & Thien An to recruit Kristin. On Savu, Devin, Ori and Jelly will boot Devin’s original target of Jenna. And on Dina, the original Savu are likely to stick together, which means Kilby and Lewis are in trouble. Kilby has been trashed by Devin, but we saw him bond with Eric in the promos. I say, ignore the promos. Kilby is in trouble because Lewis is better in challenges and less connected than Kilby.

But Kilby makes a smart move and announces he was the target at the last vote. Now everyone knows he can be recruited too. But I don’t think his move was strategically motivated. He just ran his mouth.

If I’m on Dina, do I even bother to build a shelter? If there’s a swap this early, odds are there’s gonna be another one in another six days.

Eric – the most annoying on his tribe – is bonding with Kilby – a fairly annoying member of his tribe. I wonder if their new tribe will want BOTH of them gone? Could this be like Jenn in S30: Worlds Apart using a horse race analogy to decide who was more annoying between Shirin and Max?

Eric says Lewis is the one on the outs because he’s sick. My gut tells me Eric doesn’t make the most accurate observations.

Brady’s “Brody” count: 6.

Kristin does an incredible job of increasing her value to the tribe. She has created reasons to want her to stay instead of wanting her gone.

Carter doesn’t trust Kristin, but he should realize the obvious advantages of using her to remove Brady or Mike who are more against him than she is.

Devin arrives at the crappy Savu shelter ... right after he said, “I’m not sleeping in that shelter.” “Karma can be a fickle bitch” – Ben Linus from LOST.

Devin’s big mouth comes back to haunt him as Alexis easily identifies the cracks on Toka. She bonds with Jenna, but more importantly, she can appeal to Devin, Jelly and Ori by making up a lie about Jenna. In this present tribe, a good lie can’t be fact checked yet.

But Jenna thinks she can get on the same page as Devin? It’s a good short-term plan to make it through one vote, but she’s a fool if she thinks it will last longer than that. It sounds like she’s sincere. That would mean Jenna has pretty bad instincts. For a female player this season, that’s a rarity.

And right on cue, Devin confirms in confessional he trusts Jenna less than Alexis.

Brady’s “Brody” count: 7.

Mike is trying too hard to let everyone know he wants to work with them. He might be achieving the opposite when everyone compares notes. They could all say, “Yesterday you were shunning me, and now you want to be buddy-buddy?”

Thien An to Maggie: “Mike is so bogus.” Best belly laugh of the night. I’m really starting to like Thien An.

Thien An: “He (Mike) was telling me, ‘I genuinely think outside of Survivor, you’d be one of my best friends.’ Why didn’t you tell me that when you were in the majority alliance?” Yeah, I’m really starting to like Thien An. She’s giving Dee Valladares-esque confessionals. And Mike is coming off as sincere as Chrissy did in S35: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers. Nobody bought what she was selling.

Thien An: “Mike wants to play Survivor, but right now he’s playing Survival.” Thien An pulls off the great quote triple play. But she names Maggie as her #1, then turns around and expresses unconditional trust in Carter? It’s fine if Maggie and Carter think you are their #1, but you have to pick one over the other.

I’m not buying this Ori/Jelly showmance thing. It’s reminding me of the Greg/ Colleen hype from S1: Borneo.

Jelly to Devin: “You’re a terrible wingman. You’re embarrassing, like someone’s parent.” Second big belly laugh of the night. I think Devin lays it on too thick, too.

Lewis is sick, and Eric decides to sing while he’s trying to sleep. Eric takes the lead in the “Who’s more annoying” race.

Oh no. Just like Eric, Kilby also does improv? This is a showmance I can believe in. They want to call themselves the “Loverboys?” Is that because Eric is wearing the same kind of shirt Mike Reno (Lead singer of the band Loverboy) wore in his videos? Or is it because they both love that cheesy 80s hit by Billy Ocean?

This just in from the department of irony: Kilby says Eric is too obvious.

Third big belly laugh of the night.

Last week, Maggie, Kilby, Mike and Jelly sat out of the challenge and Probst said they all had to compete in the next one. Does that still apply after a swap?

Eric and Thien An sit out, but we don’t know if it’s because the other four had to compete.

We’ve seen the bucket tossing and water tossing parts of this challenge before, but this vertical maze is totally new, and totally cool. [Ed. note: The challenge is almost identical to the Ep3 RC/IC in S28: Cagayan, including the mazes.]

Devin really sucks at tossing that bucket to Ori. He flips it over every time.

Dina pulls out first place and nobody is happier about it than Lewis. Toka takes second place, giving Mike more time to bury himself.

Savu gets to decide between booting Jenna and Alexis. Devin might finally end up on the right side of the vote. If it’s Alexis, I’d say she was swap-screwed. Not so much with Jenna.

Jenna repeats her mistake of immediately alarming everyone as soon as they return from a loss. Last week, she apologized for causing the loss, and this week she opens with saying “I’m a little antsy,” which is something nobody wants to hear about someone they want to vote with.

Then Jenna thinks she’s nudging the vote towards Alexis. Did it even occur to her that Jelly and Devin are just telling her what she wants to hear?

Alexis tries the only plan available to her: hammer home to Jenna that Jelly and Devin have already tried to boot her. Maybe Jenna will screw up at Tribal and sink her own ship.

Alexis asks Jenna for her shoes? Why on earth does she think that would work? Is she gonna show the shoes to Devin and Jelly to prove Jenna is betraying them?

Could Ori be the swing vote here? We saw how he straight up refused to vote for Ana when his alliance asked him to. Just like the theme of this column, Ori could prove to be too stubborn to count on as an alliance partner.

Removing Jenna is probably the best move for Devin and Ori. But I think I agree with Jelly when she says Alexis is the more dangerous player. Booting Alexis is probably better for Jelly. Jelly can outwit Jenna, but it would be tougher for her to outwit Alexis.

I’m wondering if Jenna ever said anything to Devin and Jelly to prove she’s actually a wedding photographer? Giving them a reason to believe her would come in very handy right now.

Jelly, Devin and Ori are doing an excellent job of concealing their Helicopter alliance.

Devin really comes off like a con man to me.

Compared to last week, there’s almost nothing interesting about this vote. Bigger tribes are better. It’s not even close. The test of one’s ability to strategize and manipulate the voting is always tougher when there are more people in the mix. There’s also zero chance Jelly’s Idol or Devin’s Extra Vote will be used. We’ll know the results after seeing just three votes.

Bye, Jenna. Patt thew you a lifeline at the first vote, but you couldn’t figure out how to improve your position after that. I can’t confidently say Alexis saved herself, but she didn’t do any damage to herself like Jenna did. But if they go to Tribal again, she’s a sitting duck.

Jenna says she was blindsided? Come on girl! Both Devin and Jelly already wrote your name down! How could this be a total surprise to you? Yeah, she just didn’t have strong enough instincts for this game. She didn’t have a decent BS meter either.

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Recap

This episode was a disappointment, coming off the heels of three great episodes, and it’s completely because of the swap to smaller tribes. I was able to call this tribe boot as soon as I saw the swapped tribes. Predictable Survivor is boring Survivor.

It’s hard for me to come up with intriguing questions to ponder because I think my initial observations about each tribe are pretty accurate. Do you think I got it right with Dina and Toka? How about Alexis? Do you think she did more to save herself than I’m giving her credit for? Is Mike doing enough to distance himself from Brady?

In the “Next week on” promo, we see Jelly saying, “Devin is bad for my game.” Promos are almost always misleading, but do you think she’s gonna take my advice and recruit Alexis to her side? If she does, should she tell Ori?

Oh wait! I know what to ask. Eliza is the eyerolling queen of course, but is Sharonda creating a new category: Best “What the fuck” faces? Let me know in the comments.