Episode 4: "To Betray or Not to
Betray"
Survivor:
Guatemala boxscores Episode
4
Filmed: July 5-7, 2005 | Aired:
October 6, 2005
- Not really an Ep4 Reward challenge: "Tribal Switch" - Sure, Jamie, Danni, Gary, Bobby Jon, Gary (again), Amy, Margaret, and Judd get rewards. But other people get screwed (Brooke, Blake, Brian, and Amy, mostly), as half of one tribe moves to the other, and vice-versa.
- Ep4 Immunity challenge: "Rows and Throws" - Yaxhá wins. Thanks, Judd.
- Voted out: Brooke, 5-3 over Lydia. Thanks again, Judd.
Episode 4 scoring notes
- Lydia sits out the IC (alternatively: Lydia sits out all the challenges in this episode). Apart from that, simple scoring, although an overall odd episode, as swaps go. An odd (but interesting) mechanism for swapping tribes (at an odd time) that, in its favor, managed to produce two (three?) surprise reveals, with the latter two (?) coming as the oblivious picnic attendees returned to their now-infiltrated camps. But it's also notable for what didn't happen:
- No throwing of the IC: It's weird that, handed a tailor-made 4-3 advantage on NuYaxhá, the ex-Nakúms (Bobby Jon, Danni, Brandon, Blake) never even seemed to think of simply throwing the IC. Clearly, they couldn't have dreamed up an easier challenge in which to do so. Maybe it was the earliness of the swap (Day 9! 15 people left!), and people were worried there might be more than three boots left before the merge. Maybe the just-played-out Palau season's lack of a merge so scarred everyone (especially Bobby Jon) that nobody wanted to gamble on running their just-swapped tribe into the ground and coasting on a 4-3 majority. Maybe it was, as Brian suggests on twitter, the ex-Nakúms would never even consider throwing a challenge. Their loss, we guess. Or, more accurately, their ill-advised win.
- No talk of an all-female alliance on NuNakúm: Again, here was another built-in majority, this time a 5-3 advantage for women on what was otherwise the evenly split, 4-4 swapped tribe. Furthermore, Cindy/Margaret/Brooke seemed at best distantly connected to Judd (and vice-versa, obviously), and they seemed to get along quite well with Lydia. And for the past two Yaxhá votes, women had been the sole vote recipients because of some crazy notion that they were inferior in challenges (except that Rafe actually was, it's just that his failure was displaced by Brianna's ... recency bias). We'd guess the impediment here was Stephenie. She seemed to have little use for her female tribemates, and seemed locked in with Jamie and Judd almost immediately (with the familiar "we have to keep the tribe strong" talk, which to be fair, is what she should be saying to them ... it's just that we suspect that's what she actually thought).
- The parade of highly implausible lying: Which is less believable? Gary's "Oh yeah, I went to Central Michigan, but I didn't play" in response to Danni nailing his college football team? Or could it be Judd's "Oh yeah, you've really got my wheels turning!" as Margaret points out (correctly!) that siding with the four Yaxhás here simply moves Judd to the end of the Nakúm boot order? It's so hard to choose.
Vote count:
- Brooke received 5 votes, from Stephenie, Rafe, Lydia, Judd, and Jamie (voted out, 5-3).
- Lydia received 3 votes, from Cindy, Margaret, and Brooke.
| Immunity Challenge | Tribal council stats | Overall scores | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | SO | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA | SurvSc | SurvAv |
| Blake | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.87 | 7.75 |
| Bobby Jon | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.87 | 7.75 |
| Brandon | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.87 | 7.75 |
| Danni | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.87 | 7.75 |
| Amy | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.29 | 7.25 |
| Brian | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.29 | 7.25 |
| Gary | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.29 | 7.25 |
| Judd | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.71 | 7.61 |
| Jamie | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.13 | 7.11 |
| Rafe | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.13 | 7.11 |
| Stephenie | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.13 | 7.11 |
| Cindy | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.21 | 4.11 |
| Margaret | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.18 | 3.41 |
| Lydia | - | 0.14 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1.06 | 3.22 |
| Brooke | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1.06 | 2.17 |
| Brianna | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.45 | 1.38 |
| Morgan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.65 | 0.11 |
| Jim | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.39 | 0.11 |
Glossary of terms
- Challenge
stats
- ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
- ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
- ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
- SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
- Tribal
Council stats
- VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
- VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
- TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
- TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
- TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
- wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
- Jury
stats
- JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
- TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
- JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
- Overall
scores
- Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
- Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.
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