Let's face it, sometimes Survivor serves up a dud. Episode 6 of Survivor 51 was one of those, and the fault rests pretty much exclusively on the show's insistence on swapping to three small tribes in Episode 4, which produced yet another disaster tribe. Just like in Survivor 41. Just like in S44. Just like in S45. Just like in S46. Just like in S48. Just like in S49. (Are you beginning to sense a pattern yet?) Post-swap Savu went to Tribal three times in three episodes, and each time the boot was painfully obvious (to the audience, at least). It really snuffed the life out of a season that had started out so well, and had just started to hit its stride.

Despite that, hope springs eternal, because we're getting one big tribe again next episode, and all signs are that, as we saw in the premiere, production has realized the error of -- and audience discontent with -- its New Era "Earn the Merge!" formula, and has brought back an older, better recipe with Merge Classic™. So instead of belaboring the spooky feeling of creeping death stalking Episode 6, let's look forward to the future.

What lies ahead

To give credit where it is due: As we move further into the season, it's clear someone in production actually listened to fan complaints about the new era, and actively worked to restore things that fans had repeatedly complained they were missing: An actual marooning! Two starting tribes! Normal idols! A normal merge! (More on that in a second.) And yet, it appears this was a compromise, and other voices in charge insisted on maintaining things fans loathe, like the swap to three small tribes, or journeys. Structurally, though, it has been sequenced a bit like what studies have shown software developers use to addict users to social media apps or games - dopamine hits just frequently enough to keep you engaged, right when you start thinking about quitting.

To get to the buried lede: The press photos for the next episode are out, and it looks like we're *finally* getting a normal merge (more or less), for the first time since S40: Winners at War! A full individual immunity challenge, one in which everyone competes! There's even a "merge feast" (sort of!) that also brings back another long-lost element that fans have been requesting for a long time. (I don't want to spoil too much here, but it's a fun surprise if you want to look for yourself, or save it for Wednesday.) It's a welcome change from the "the monotony will continue until morale improves" attitude of the new era. As a fan, I will happily accept wholesale fan service for the premiere and merge episodes. This is the way. Let's go for the finale next!

Looking ahead, though, I'm still a little concerned that we're about to lose that balance, that feeling of compromise, in the post-merge. To be fair, some of the returning elements (Tied Destinies and the formerly MrBeast coin flip) are ones that other fans clearly enjoyed in S50: In the Hands of the Fans, but that I thought were only "good" in the results-oriented sense that they paid off in entertaining ways *that time*. They could also have produced absolutely terrible results, and may now do so as they're returning, but that remains to be seen.

Take Tied Destinies, which is almost certainly coming in two weeks, based on Episode 8's title, "Load the Ark, Two by Two." In S50 it worked because it was a massive relief to finally have Coach out of the game. Maybe it'll play out that way again this season, and Brady will have to settle for subtitled "brody"-ing from the jury bench. But more likely, we're probably going to lose someone who has a good head for the game, but has been mostly purpled so far, like Cristian or Thien An. Cristian had some really fun stuff this episode, like rigging the Shot in the Dark draw. Same for Thien An ("catch me if I die," her vendetta against Mike). Both have mostly avoided Tribal in the pre-merge, so they haven't had much to do, but each could really shine in the individual phase of the game. My guess, however, is that one or both will leave for some dumb reason like Tied Destinies, or losing the coin flip. (Like a lot of viewers, I was sure Cristian was about to leave the game on a rock draw in Ep5, so ... happy to have been wrong there.)

The coin flip is an even more worrisome returning element, since we've already been guaranteed it will be in EVERY season going forward, all because the popular Rick Devens had nothing to lose, and was lucky the first time, which fans loved. Nobody seemed to care that if there were no volunteers, someone had to flip the coin anyway, which would have been chosen by rock draw. How enthusiastically will fans embrace this stunt if someone like Kristin or Sharonda has calmly seized control of the game, has a clear path to victory, and is forced to leave because they drew the wrong rock, then lost a coin flip? Well, good news, it'll be back to screw someone else over the next season, too!

This is also a concern because there aren't that many episodes left into which to cram all these bad ideas. Tied Destinies is Episode 8. The coin flip is probably Episode 10 (as it was in S50). We still need a double boot at some point, and Jonathan's "Power Broker" split-Tribal advantage enabled that in Episode 11 of S50, so it's probably there again here. That leaves just next week (the merge vote in Episode 7), Episode 9 and Episode 12 as normal post-merge votes (unless the coin flip hits). Also the F5 vote in the finale, I guess, but that's already overpowered by forced F4 fire. That already feels pretty unbalanced.

Still, the premiere and merge episodes demonstrate that Survivor is at least *trying* to listen to and incorporate fan feedback. I appreciate that effort. And maybe some of the postmerge twist decisions were themselves nods to the S50-era fan excitement about Tied Destinies or the coin flip. The show was incredibly lucky that Episode 5's extra vote twist paid off as well as it did, buoying audience confidence along until the merge. Maybe they'll get (Irish) lucky again? Let's hope so, for all of our sakes.

Who can win? - Midseason game assessments

The all-women boot streak has ended, but the underlying strength of women players hasn't disappeared. When combining gameplay so far, current position in the game, and how the edit has treated them, I see three women who feel like they could be this season's winner. There's a second tier that's mostly men, and a few long shots who have potential but just haven't been seen enough (or have been seen too much) to make the cut. As always, I could be misreading everything, but this is mostly a vibes-based ranking, which is the style at this time.

The favorites

Sharonda - There's no particular order to this, so I would say any of the the top three *could* win. Among the three, though, Sharonda has the most connections, so I think she's the slight favorite. She's now even more directly linked to Kristin, but she's also about to be reunited with her Helicopter allies, Devin and Jelly. She's solid with Cristian and with Eric. She has a base, albeit a small one. Original Savu is outnumbered 9-4 (counting Carter and Lewis as Toka, which they seem to be now) on the merge tribe, which makes the Savus just tiny enough that they might catch a vote here or there, but not enough to be seen as a real threat. Toka can even split a vote and be assured of victory! (Unless someone has an idol.) Throughout the premerge, Sharonda has proven herself to be observant and thoughtful. Calm, not easily flustered, but armed with a solid understanding of how the game works, and of her opponents. "Kristin's too predictable, she wants to be the provider," Sharonda said, as she described waiting for Kristin to volunteer to go to Exile. Sharonda is a formidable competitor, but she's also come up just short a couple of times (the Linnea vote standoff, Kristin's Exile visit revealing more powers to the tethered idol). But there's definitely enough here to think she could win.

Kristin - In theory, Kristin is in a much better spot than Sharonda, thanks to the tethered idol. Sharonda will want to keep her around, while Kristin won't mind all that much if someone wants to blindside Sharonda. But we've also been shown that they have had a connection since they were on a raft together at the marooning (they bonded over being former college athletes). The first thing we heard from Kristin this season was how quickly she bonded with Sharonda. As a "provider," Kristin does not seem like the kind of player who would willingly burn an ally and a jury vote just to power up an idol. I think she's far more likely to want the résumé boost (in front of the jury) from saving Sharonda from an otherwise certain blindside (maybe even a "blindside" she eggs on?), just as David Wright did for Jessica Lewis in S33: Millennials vs. Gen X. We've heard a lot about Kristin's 25-year journey in getting on Survivor, including this past episode, and about her being calm in a crisis. She's been a popular winner pick all season, and there's nothing really suggesting that she can't win, but I'm still not 100% sold on that being the story the season is telling us. I'm wondering if her very public (and brave!) vote against forced F4 fire -- plus the repeated reminders that she's really good at making fire -- are setting us up to be shocked as we grimly watch her flame out spectacularly (sorry) at Final 4 firemaking.

Jelly - Jelly has had the roughest go of it so far this season, attending Tribal five times in the first six episodes. But she hits the merge with a close ally in Devin, and a Helicopter friend in Sharonda. She also has an idol (which, in his spirit of full disclosure, Devin will probably tell everyone about the second they merge). The edit has taken pains to stress that Jelly is the more thoughtful, reserved half of the Devin/Jelly (Devilly?) pair, so while Devin has always felt like he's one overshared secret away from being blindsided, Jelly has the aura of someone who's in it for the long haul. Alexis and Ori each separately had her thinking about dropping Devin, and we've seen her contemplate it herself before, too, although this episode she explicitly said (in confessional, no less) "It's me and Devin to the end." It's not really clear how happy the original Tokas will be to have her back, since she was closest to Aaliyah then Patt, and they're both gone (as is Ori). But Mike was also part of their group, and he needs numbers, so maybe that's the path forward? (Reuniting with Brady and his group seems more likely.) Either way, again, she has an idol. There are possibilities.

The almost-contenders

Maggie - After pulling off a blindside by remote control in Episode 5, Maggie seemed like the player to beat. But then Episode 6's edit knocked her down a few slots. She resisted Toka's entertainment (a sack swing that, to be fair, looked dangerous), and instead insisted on trying to use the hammock as a fishing net, which, predictably, did not work. That cued more condescending talk from Brady about how bossy and flighty Maggie is. Hopefully, this is all leading to Maggie and Thien An pulling off a Brady blindside, and the sooner the better. But it doesn't seem ideal that Maggie doesn't appear to have any strong connections outside of Thien An (and Lewis and Kilby).

Carter - Three-plus episodes with Toka seem to have successfully integrated Carter into that tribe's numbers, despite starting out very clearly on the bottom of original Savu. And let's not forget: Carter also has an idol, which nobody knows about (as far as we know). Carter's edit has been pretty glowingly positive, despite his in-game instincts generally appearing fairly poor (failing up into the mutiny; Lewis having to all but drag him physically into voting for Patt). But he's well-liked, and he reminds everyone of S18: Tocantins-edition JT, and that jury gave JT every one of their votes for unknown reasons, so sure, it could happen again. Why not?

Lewis - His Irish luck may have almost run out (let's hope not), but Lewis has made it to the merge, despite the roughest start possible (three days on Exile). Many of his connections seem pretty flimsy because of that, but he's tight with Kilby now, and we also saw Cristian reaching out to him this episode. And the merge will bring Maggie and Thien An, of course, and maybe Carter? But if the other Tokas or the other ex-Dinas decide he's too much of a threat now, he doesn't really have anything with which to save himself, including numbers. He's a fairly standard safe, consensus merge vote (much the same spot Kaleb was in after his Shot hit in S45). But he escaped certain death once. Who's to say he can't do it again? Long-term, though, he has a tough climb ahead.

Kilby - He now has "Chaos" as part of his name, and he's shown a willingness to make flashy moves, the kind that would impress jurors. (But he's also loyal!) He has some powerful people starting to line up against him, though: Sharonda, Brady, Devin/Jelly. Eric also wants revenge. There's potential for more Tribal fireworks here (a last-ditch coin flip, maybe?), but like Lewis, Kilby has a long road ahead of him if he wants to reach the finals. Still, he did get a potential winner's quote: "I want to win this game in a fun, exciting way, because this is all I've ever dreamed of."

The long shots

Mike - It seems unlikely that Mike would have this negative of an edit if he were going to end up winning. It's odd, because the things he says in confessional make a lot of sense. He's correctly reading his actual position in the game. It's just that it seems very unlikely that he'll be able to find the numbers to change that position. Thien An and Maggie have already written him off (and shut him down this episode when he tried to go on the journey). He wasn't part of the Patt-voting group that Kilby and Lewis were in on. Kristin appeared to be just giving flat, vaguely positive non-responses when he proposed they should work together (in confessional, "In what world?" but in person, something along the lines of, "Sure, maybe"). Still, he's a smart guy, so it's theoretically possible he can pull something off. Just maybe not with the people who are left in this game. For what it's worth, he also had a potential winner's quote: "Either I'm going home next, or I'm gonna win this damn thing." (One of the top three women vs. Kilby and Mike might be a fun Final Three.)

Brady - Brady has felt like a huge presence (literally, I guess) the entire season. He's loud, he's emotional, he's physical. He's way more S42 Jonathan Young than S50 Jonathan Young, though. Despite that, Brady seems like an ideal guy to get close to, then use as a shield to get to the end. He's "annoyed" and "bothered" enough people that he's already unlikely to win a jury vote. Unfortunately, you may want to "beat [your] face off a palm tree until Jeff says [you] can't play any more" instead of listening to him "brody" his way through a Final Tribal speech, though. Or his responses to jury questions. "I'm not questioning [his] intelligence, it's just the self-awareness score is zero." Yeah, maybe it's not best to drag him to the end, after all. Please?

Devin - Devin remains convinced that his "weaponized honesty" approach is going to win him the million (plus). We'll see how well that holds up if/when he leaks the news about Jelly's currently secret idol. Despite all that, the edit clearly loves Devin, and it's not difficult to see why. He's charming, he's an engaging narrator, and he just seems fun. I could easily see Devin winning over a jury, especially after the shaky start he's had in the game (like Jelly, five Tribals in six episodes). Probably everyone currently playing can see that too, though.

Thien An - Now we're getting into edit-based reasoning. Thien An seems level-headed, was the driver of a huge early-season move (the Patt vote), has made some strong connections, but for some reason has barely been seen so far this season. She's attended one more Tribal than Kristin. Thien An's confessionals are good, too! Who doesn't want to hear some more Mike-bashing? (Okay, Mike doesn't, probably.) It's possible being seen as close to Maggie will doom Thien An in the short term, and maybe someone like Brady would target Maggie, but worry that she received more than just an extra vote in Ep5? I dunno. I don't see a reason for anyone to want Thien An out in the short term, but I also haven't really seen her, period.

Cristian - Cristian is in the same boat as Thien An here. He had a slight uptick in screen presence in Episode 6 (which I guess makes him a favorite for the merge boot?), but he's basically been MIA for most of the season otherwise. Which is sad, because he seems like he could be a really fun character in the post-merge, as he starts "letting my chaotic side out." A Lewis-Cristian-Kilby trio going for broke and wreaking havoc could be hugely entertaining. Will we get to see that? I'm guessing no. (It will be frustrating if we later learn that some wacky schemes were indeed there, they were just cut to make room for more confessionals containing the word "brody.")

Sorry, no

Eric - If Eric wins, I will eat a rock. Objectively, he's in a terrible spot, coming from the hopelessly outnumbered tribe at the merge, with an at best arm's-length connection to Sharonda, and a "we wore the same buffs" link to Cristian. The premiere was about how irritating everyone else found him. The editors have spent the five episodes since then clowning on him relentlessly. It's unfortunate, because Eric seems like a genuine, legitimately nice guy. I'm not sure what he did to deserve all the ridicule. Even Rob the quitter had a better edit! Put another way, Eric has not even been the best-edited player from Rhode Island this season. Still, Eric could well be seen as the ideal player to take to the final three. We've seen a lot of him, he's probably going to stick around for a while. It just seems highly unlikely he's going to win.

The tempestuous teapot of tepid takes

- The "Ori is a superfan" fakeout - We had no entertainment media pre-game interviews this season, so I was pleasantly surprised to learn from his CBS-provided content that Ori had seen every season. But it was then a little shocking that his first scenes in the premiere were the budding showmance with Jelly, and one of the first things he said once on Savu was quietly asking Sharonda for guidance, since he was "new to the show." Overall, he played relatively well, albeit while making some odd choices (intentionally not voting with his allies for Ana at Savu's first Tribal). Anyway, in his exit interviews, the curtain was pulled back and ... Ori was recruited via a dating app. He binged the 40s after being cast. That preseason interview? All a ruse.

Which is dumb. Ori did fine! He was a legit gamer. He didn't need a network disinformation campaign to make the audience like him. I guess the take-home message (especially with its new ownership) is obvious: Don't believe anything CBS says, unless it can be independently verified.

- A *sack* swing? In this economy? - Carter building Toka a swing was a fun segment, but - I'm not saying I'm not a dumb city boy - why did it have to be a sack swing? Was the forest devoid of pieces of wood they could have used for a seat? I'm a bit lost as why to why someone had to sacrifice their shirt and fill it with coconuts for this specific piece of whimsy.

- Exile, revisited - I like that they left the incompletely chopped mast there for the next visitor to see. It backs up (or wouldn't, if he'd lied) Lewis's story. But also: damn, Lewis was much closer to actually chopping through that thing than I thought.

- Exaggerated failure - Savu's performance in the IC was a lot better than the edit tried to claim. Right after we hear Kristin inform the Toka team about the two-sided puzzle pieces, "We need all the yellow facing us," we see Savu with about three pieces placed (one of them backwards), and multiple people asking "where's the one?!" (to complete the 51 at the bottom). The "one," of course, was on the piece that was backwards. Then Toka places their last piece, immediately followed by Dina. But when we flash back to the Savu puzzle, it is around halfway complete. They still lost by a lot, but not as badly as it appeared. But let that be a lesson if you're a future contestant: The puzzle pieces are usually color-coded for front and back sides.

- (Almost) gaming the system - Savu actually had a chance to work the rules into at least a toss-up for who went home, without anyone playing their Shot in the Dark. Ignoring the idol and extra vote, if they each voted for each other, it's a 1-1-1 deadlocked tie. They probably just draw rocks or have a firemaking tiebreaker after that, but it would at least be fun to find out, right? (If Jelly played her idol, it's still a 1-1 tie, although that would fall apart on the revote.) It made more sense for Jelly and Devin to save their hardware for the post-merge, and Jelly wanting to ensure another woman didn't go home here made perfect sense. Still, this was one of the few cases where a trio could actually trust each other enough to force a three-way tie. Pity it didn't work out that way.

- The successor-in-waiting? - Before the season started, Jeff Probst gave a lot of interviews where he kinda, sorta, talked about maybe retiring someday ... while assuring us that's not happening any time soon. But in one of those interviews, he mentioned there being someone on S51 who he could envision taking over as host. So with the season half over ... who is it? It has to be Devin, right? (Like Probst, he has previous TV show experience, and he's clearly at ease in front of the camera.) Nobody else really makes sense to me. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.