Episode 12 of Survivor 48 finally delivered a move, as Kyle and Kamilla whittled down the Strong Four alliance sort of from within, by targeting Shauhin with a mostly-contrived story of betrale [sic.]. It was a long time coming, and was preceded, as always, with Mitch pledging to finally make a move (he was, naturally, completely absent from the edit after the immunity challenge). But it was a move, it worked, and it made next week's finale a lot more interesting.

What had seemed like a season in which Joe and Eva were going to just steamroll the competition with a combination of loyalty pledges, immunity wins, and idols/advantages now could conceivably end with the (still hard to believe) "secret" alliance of Kyle and Kamilla using that steamrolling as a smokescreen to get (one of them?) to the end, where they claim victory for being (in Kamilla's words) "a duo that is working the game hard" as opposed to Joe and Eva, a pair who "are just sitting there."

That's exciting for the season, and in making that shift in tone, this episode was a solid example of how a post-merge Survivor episode should work. There was an individual reward challenge, the winner picked people to go with them, leaving unhappy people back at camp. Various plots are considered, which get finalized before the immunity challenge. The immunity challenge then either thwarts those plans or gives them the green light, and we see them succeed or fail in the pre-Tribal scramble and at Tribal. It's a simple formula, but it's worked for two decades! Yet too often this season, it's been discarded in favor of combined reward/immunity challenges (for no reason) that turn the first day of the two-day episode cycle into dead time that's as boring for the audience as it is for the contestants (or as in Episode 11, the whole day is blown on a one-person journey that was both uninteresting to watch and ultimately pointless), while compressing all the strategy into a tiny period between the challenge and Tribal. In a season already leaning towards loyalty and staying the course, production choices really aided and abetted that stasis.

So now we head into the finale with an open question of whether the story of the Strong Four is really the narrative of the season, or if it's "fun betrale." I know what I'm hoping for, but let's explore what's most likely to happen.

The most likely winners

At this point, I think we can safely rule out two people from the list of potential winners: Mitch and Eva. Mitch has explicitly been on the bottom for multiple episodes, he keeps thinking of making a move, but has yet to do so. His window has closed. If he caught wind of Kyle and Kamilla's play on Shauhin, maybe he could sell them out to Joe, but there's no indication he did, since he was completely unshown after the IC.

For Eva, she's talked extensively about being part of a team, and everything she's done post-merge has been in lockstep with Joe, and Joe is seen as the leader. You never want to go to Final Three with someone who has done the same things as you, but looks better/more powerful than you in the jury's eyes. Also, at 24, she's the youngest person there by a lot (Star is 28, but everyone else is in their 30s or older), which is rarely seen as a positive. She hasn't had anyone vote against her, and it's not clear if that's because of her public idol, or because they just don't see her as a threat to win, like Xander. And in this episode, we heard Shauhin essentially say it's the latter.

Still, it's not like either Mitch or Eva has a zero percent shot at winning. Both have great backstories, and appear to be well-liked by everyone. Their games are probably less-respected than their opponents, but the jurors are under no obligation to vote on game performance, and can choose any criteria they want, like "Who overcame the most obstacles to get to the end?" or "Who acquired the most idols and advantages?" In those contexts, you could be saying hello to Mitch or Eva, Survivor 48 champion.

But those scenarios seem a bit far-fetched, and most likely, for everyone else, Mitch and Eva are their ideal final three opponents. Kyle and Kamilla are probably both aware of this. For Joe, maybe that calculation isn't there, but he clearly wants to bring Eva to the end regardless, and may not really be worried about who the other person is.

Of the three remaining contenders, I think the likelihood of winning is probably 1. Joe, 2. Kyle, and 3. Kamilla. Of these, a Kamilla win would be the most fun, but the other two certainly are compatible with the story of the season so far. But let's get into each potential winner's path to victory.

Joe

For Joe to win, his best bet is to be there at the end with Mitch and Eva. He then tells the jury about staying true to his alliance, with Eva at his side as proof. People like David and Shauhin will object, but what are they going to do, vote for Mitch?

Importantly, there's a really good chance Joe gets to the finals. He's the leader in Mean % Finish (MPF) in individual challenges, so he's the favorite to win both remaining ICs. Kyle is right there with him too, but so is Eva. So basically, Joe has a just-under 2-in-3 shot of being safe at F5, because as she's told us, if Eva wins, she plays her idol for Joe. And Joe also seems good at fire-making, so he's not at much risk at F4 even if he doesn't win immunity, which he would again be the favorite to do. (Unless he somehow gets in a firemaking challenge vs. Eva, in which case he marches over to her station and helps her build it.)

With four immunity wins already, there's a chance Joe could tie or even break the (US) record for immunity necklaces in a season in the finale (two more ICs left). If he does that, he looks better to the jury. If he wins at fire-making at F4, he looks even better. Cedrek and Chrissy both seem like potential Joe voters in most combinations, anyway. Like Joe, they're both over 40 and have kids, they respect that he was a leader. Chrissy tried to take him out and failed, but she'll probably view that as a sign Joe was doing something right. If Eva somehow hits the jury, she's a locked-in vote and strong advocate for Joe. Kyle might also be a Joe voter, unless Kamilla is also eligible to be voted for.

If Joe's up against Kyle and/or Kamilla (or, dare we wish, both) in the final three, it's the best of all endings for the audience, but it's a much tougher path for him, although it might be close against Kamilla, because her game has been much more hidden to most of the cast. But even then, I think Joe is the most likely winner. The entire season has been his story. His was the last call from casting (telling him he was on 48) in the opening segment of the premiere, and he had the first confessional, about being "the guy you want to call" when there's an emergency.

And that's really why Joe seems like the winner. As a casual viewer, you are meant to root for him as a good guy whose strong instincts were to wrap Eva up and protect her at a moment's notice. He's the hero of that lone wolf and cub story. If you go back to the scene this week where Kyle returns to camp and tells Kamilla the Shauhin plan, and they're both celebrating how great it is, we then cut to ... Joe heading out to the beach for his conversation with his late sister, Joanna. As fun and clever as the scheme is, they're springing it on *this* guy? At this precise time? Woof. Or, as Kamilla said ....

That said, there is certainly some reasonable doubt about Joe winning, much of it introduced in this episode. With the story of his sister (prominent in the preseason) finally having been introduced and already reached "closure," you could argue maybe Joe's story is now complete? The weird editing of Ep12's Tribal - where we had close-ups on Joe while Kyle and Shauhin were talking, and their voices were layered in effects such that they became unintelligible muttering, like the adults in Peanuts cartoons - seems intended to add to the episode's framing of him as an easy mark for manipulation by Kyle and Kamilla. He's now been fooled by that duo twice (Thomas, Shauhin), maybe even three times if you count David. All the same, if they're both lobbing that bomb from the jury seats, maybe it doesn't detonate, or worse, makes them look bad. Remember when Thomas wanted to toss Star's idol decoder in the ocean, and Shauhin was sketched out, thinking that was a step too far? The question of "how much gameplay is too much?" has been with us all season, and it's clear there are certain lines we're not supposed to be comfortable crossing.

Final point: Everyone has been saying in the show that they need to take out Joe - he's too powerful, he's going to win. So if he doesn't get taken out, he ought to win, because the same people who were saying that will now be voting for someone to win. We keep seeing people going to Joe with their plans. He really is the leader, even if Kyle and Kamilla ran strategic rings around him this episode. It'll take a lot of Final Tribal arguing to change people's perceptions in that regard. I'm not saying that can't happen, but historically it's been rare, so I'm guessing it's probably already too late.

Kyle

Kyle, as the architect of the "Frame Shauhin" scheme, stands to gain the most from that move, should he reach the end. A head-to-head matchup with Joe would be the most interesting finals combination, mainly because it's not 100% clear who would come out on top. It could well be another Yul-Ozzy nailbiter, after all these years. Kyle should win most of the other scenarios, though. There's a non-zero chance that Kamilla could surpass him if she correctly pointed out that she was on the bottom from the swap, whereas he coasted through the game having comfortable options with either her or with the majority alliance. It's also possible jurors who were on the bottom will hold it against Kyle that he worked with Kamilla on a move, but not with them, or that he failed to come through on plans they made with him (what I call "the Albert Destrade dissatisfaction""). Kyle is a persuasive, relatable speaker with a great backstory, and a solid game performance to sell to the jury, though. It would be very surprising if he made it to the jury vote, only to fall short in the final tally.

That all supposes Kyle reaches the finals, and it's not really clear that he will. In theory, it shouldn't take much to get Joe to target Kyle, who is Joe's biggest competition in challenges. Maybe Joe just decides he wants that six-IC crown/record, and targets him for that reason. Or Joe might wake up strategically, and realize his best final three is against Eva and Mitch. Or he might think Kamilla is a better finals opponent than Kyle. There are a lot of ways it could still go south for Kyle.

In Shauhin's exit interview on RHAP, he explained that the scene at the Sanctuary that set up Kyle's betrayal was much longer than shown, and that the two of them discussed the pros and cons of booting every remaining player, not just Eva. Importantly, Shauhin then says they also discussed voting against each other, which Shauhin pointed out to Kyle at the time was a bad idea, because "if I'm out, you're next" (and vice-versa) - so they should target Mitch, instead. That "if I'm out, you're next" feels like it could have been an unintentional slip. Let's hope not, because all the best endings for this season have Kyle stating his case to the jury.

Kamilla

Kamilla has acquired a small collection of surprise victories this season. On the post-swap IC with the table maze (the Joe-Eva challenge), she blazed a path on the maze, giving Vula a surprise win. Then in the post-merge, her arch puzzle won her immunity over Joe! Could a jury win be next? (It's what everyone wants, please let this happen.) Maybe.

Of the three people left who aren't Joe or Eva, Kamilla seems like a much smaller (heh) threat than Kyle or Mitch, at least to win challenges. So she's an unlikely target at Final 5. But she's also unlikely to win the final immunity, and therefore is an inviting choice to put into F4 firemaking. (Have we ever seen Kamilla make fire?) Kamilla's edit feels very much like a F4 firemaking victim, like Jesse. Someone who clearly could have won, if they'd just been able to clear that final hurdle. She's grown the most out of everyone left - from someone who doubted herself and whose family thought she'd be the first boot, to a legitimate threat to win the whole thing, and someone who definitely ought to be in consideration for Survivor 50.

Having said that, if she does somehow sneak into the finals, Kamilla easily beats Mitch and Eva, but has an uphill battle against Joe and/or Kyle, again because her game has been so hidden. She can point out that she opened Kyle's idol for him, that she contributed her extra vote to the Thomas blindside, that her acting helped take out Thomas and Shauhin. She also has an immunity win under her belt, which isn't insignificant. Her biggest problem is that her game has almost all been "secret" - a secret alliance with Kyle (and Shauhin, apparently), her acting in the blindsides. It's a lot to spring on the jury at the last minute, and she needs Kyle's backup for a lot of it to land. But if Kyle is there in the finals with her, do they split votes? Does he get more credit just because he's a man (say from David)? There are a lot of worries there. Still, her argument that Joe and Eva mostly sat around while she and Kyle worked the game hard is a solid one.

Side note: Like many other people, I was initially confused by Kamilla's vote for Mitch this week, but upon further review, it makes a lot of sense. We saw Kamilla telling Eva not to play her idol unless Shauhin played his. Probably unshown there is that Kamilla likely reassured Eva that she was voting for Mitch, to guarantee that if Shauhin "played his idol," even without Eva playing hers, the worst possible outcome was a 1-1 tie (if Shauhin voted someone other than Mitch), or Mitch leaving. Conveniently for Kamilla, if her secret ally Shauhin ends up being the deciding jury vote ... she didn't vote against him.

Shorter takes

The move on Shauhin: From Shauhin's exit interviews, I'm wondering if Kyle and Kamilla knew Shauhin had multiple fake idols stashed in his bag. In Rob Cesternino's RHAP recap with Charlie Davis, they postulated that the Kyle/Kamilla plan could have been blown up simply by Joe going to Shauhin and searching his bag ... except that would have actually validated their story! (Unless Joe did as shitty a job of bag searching as Shauhin did with Kyle's.)