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| Survivor:
Tocantins episode 3 detailed boot spoilers/ speculation |
 Not
much to go on at this point. Probst happily mentions Coach, Sierra,
Stephen, Debbie, Tyson, Taj and Spencer as key characters
this season (here and here), so we'd guess they're not on the
chopping block this early.
Skip past the italics, it doesn't look like Jalapao loses the
IC this week.
Since we don't
even have much of a clue as to the IC winner, lots of variables
here. For Jalapao, the most vulnerable would
appear to be, in some order, Joe, Sydney and Sandy (all beloved by Carolina,
so likely to miss the jury). We'd
guess Jalapao is the most likely to attend, however, since the whole premise
of the ads is that they're unbeatable. If so, you'd think Taj would be their
target (possibly Sandy), so we'd rank the rough hierarchy of bootability
as follows:
- Joe: He was the focus of a zoom shot as Probst uncovered
the "twist" that a winning tribe member gets exiled. If Taj's new exile-hatched
alliance somehow takes him down instead, that might work (although since
Brendan is part of the "four", she's missing a vote). Alternatively, she
could find the hidden idol, and play it to take him out. Joe seems destined
to get beaten by exile in some way, although we're not positive it's here.
For what it's worth, Joe was shown after Carolina (and before Sandy) at the
end of the Ep1 IC.
- Sydney: If Taj is going to rally a counter-vote against
Joe/Sydney/Spencer, she'd probably do better to target someone more expendable,
such as Sydney. Although as with Joe, no obvious reason so far to target
Sydney otherwise.
- Sandy: Maybe we're overthinking all this, and they simply
decide Sandy is worth dumping, just as they almost did in Ep1. Although if
Taj needs an extra vote to stay in, Sandy seems like a good one to recruit.
As mentioned in the IC discussion, it looks like Timbira will be headed to
tribal council again.
For Timbira, Jerry seems like the most
likely one to go, apart from maybe Tyson, all based on Candace's
apparent preferences, post-game. (Also, Probst failed
to mention Jerry as a major character, whereas Tyson got Probst's blessing).
In game, however, Erinn and Sierra seem like the obvious boot targets (and
in fact, Probst's Ep3 preview shows Coach talking to Tyson, discussing booting
either Erinn or Sierra).
Brendan's alliance
has to factor in here somewhere, too. He could in theory be a target, especially
if he blows the IC for them. Can he find a hidden idol? Can Sierra? Can they
start cutting through the haze of Coach's alleged competence, and take out
him or Tyson? Hell if we know.
But really, there are any number of scenarios we could dream
up. We're
leaning toward Jerry, although Tyson or Coach would be way more interesting.
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