Survivor: Tocantins boxscores
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Survivor: Tocantins boxscores - Episode 12
"The Martyr Approach"
By Jeff Pitman | Published: July 15, 2015

Filmed: December 5-7, 2008 | Aired: May 14, 2009 | Re-watched: July 15, 2015
  • Ep12 Reward challenge: "Blind to Reason" - JT wins easily, with the only suspense being how the name of the challenge relates in any way to people going through a maze in shackles, then swinging a sandbag at poles. JT gives Coach two days alone with a helicopter camera crew, takes Stephen on an overnight trip to the Governor's Retreat (showers, feasting, beds).
  • Ep12 Immunity challenge: "Chimney Sweep" - JT wins.
  • Ep12 voted out: Coach, 3-2 over Erinn.

 

JT wins
JT wins
Coach out, 3-2
Episode 12 scoring notes

Notes: Nothing out of the ordinary scoring-wise in this episode: two JT challenge wins, and a simple 3-2 majority vote. But since the episode presented the Coach boot as Stephen's choice, we thought we'd delve into that a bit, to see if he made the right one. We're not sure he did.

 

Stephen's only possible path to a victory would have required him to vote JT out. Clearly, that couldn't have happened in the previous episode (even with the reckless bravado immunity would have given him), since it was a 3-3 Jalapao-Timbira tie, and nobody else was even thinking of voting out JT. Just as clearly, it couldn't have happened in this or future episodes, because JT wins this and both remaining immunity challenges. What's striking, though (from Coach's final words), is how severely Stephen underestimated Coach's fury at Stephen's betrayal of the Warrior Alliance, and how much that was amplified by JT sticking with Coach on this vote. Stephen may have had a chance at a stronger showing with the jury if he'd voted for Erinn instead.

 

Voting out Coach here, however, might also have backfired, and perhaps even ended up worse for Stephen (as in third place). If JT was willing to play into Coach's warrior ethos here, there's no reason he couldn't have kept doing so at the next two votes, bringing Coach to the final two with him, rather than Stephen. This would be the best move for JT, and he would have kept his pact with Coach, while making a stunning game move against a strategist who might respect it.

 

So Stephen really didn't have a viable path to the million here, despite how deeply involved he was in his and JT's overall strategic thinking. Of the two choices, voting out Erinn here might have given Stephen a slightly better chance to win, because clearly the jurors have been deeply unimpressed with Coach for the past two Tribal Councils. Simultaneously, however, doing so would have decreased Stephen's chances of reaching the finals. Much as Coach admitted his fully fed and rested self couldn't have outlasted JT in the IC, Stephen really had no chance to beat JT in this game.

 

Oh, and to mark the final exile of the season, here are the rankings for cumulative days spent on Exile Island:

1. Taj (7 days); 2. Stephen (6 days); 3. Brendan (5 days); 4. Erinn (4 days); and three-way tie for 5th - Coach, Sierra, Joe (2 days).

 

Vote count:

- Coach received 3 votes, from Stephen, Erinn, and Taj (voted out, 3-2).

- Erinn received 2 votes, from JT and Coach.

Episode 12 boxscore
Reward Challenge Immunity Challenge Tribal council stats
Contestant ChW ChA ChW ChA VFB VAP TotV TCA SurvSc SurvAv
Coach 0 1 0 1 0 3 5 1 0.74 3.46
Erinn 0 1 0 1 1 2 5 1 0.79 3.77
J.T. 1 1 1 1 0 - 5 1 1.11 8.82
Stephen 0 1 0 1 1 - 5 1 1.25 8.20
Taj 0 1 0 1 1 - 5 1 0.85 3.52
Debbie - - - - - - - - 0.92 4.11
Sierra - - - - - - - - 0.66 1.98
Tyson - - - - - - - - 1.05 4.66
Brendan - - - - - - - - 0.91 3.53
Joe* - - - - - - - - 0.84 1.92
Sydney - - - - - - - - 1.19 3.42
Spencer - - - - - - - - 1.06 2.67
Sandy - - - - - - - - 0.98 2.03
Jerry - - - - - - - - 0.53 1.53
Candace - - - - - - - - -0.41 0.13
Carolina - - - - - - - - -0.88 0.00
Glossary of terms
  • Challenge stats
    • ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
    • ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
    • ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
    • SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
    • Plc: Place finished in an individual challenge
    • %Fin: Percent finish - roughly, percent of a win achieved, with 1 being 100%.
    • MPF: Mean % finish - mean of all % finishes in individual challenges.
  • Tribal Council stats
    • VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
    • VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
    • TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
    • TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
    • TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
    • wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
  • Jury stats
    • JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
    • TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
    • JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
  • Overall scores
    • Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
    • Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.

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