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| Survivor:
Samoa episode 5 detailed boot spoilers/ speculation |
 Setting
aside any alleged spoilers floating around, the focus in the
post-Ep4 preview was pretty much all Foa Foa again, suggesting
they're returning to their tribal council home-away-from-home
this week.
Who's most at risk? Half the tribe: Jaison,
Liz and Ashley.
Jaison has been on Russell H's new hit
list ever since the Ben boot, and has complained about the conditions
for two episodes straight. He thought about quitting before the
Ben vote, and said in Ep4 that coming on the show was the worst
decision he's made in his life... how will 48 straight hours
of rain
make him feel?
Liz also gets a soggy treatment
in the Ep5 preview: Arguing with Russell H (didn't work out so
well for Marisa or Betsy), complaining about the rain (fire is
life, so water is the opposite), and "struggling to hang on"
in what looks like the IC (in Probst's own words). Not good portents.
And finally there's Ashley,
who was Russell's first choice for a target in the previous Foa
Foa tribal council visit.
Compared to Jaison and Liz, she gets a relatively positive treatment
in the preview (listening to Natalie worry about the looming
dark clouds).
Of these, Jaison has proven his worth
in the challenges, as has Liz to some extent. Ashley hasn't done
much of anything. But it comes down to who Russell wants out
the most. In Russell's negative energy strategy, forcing Jaison
to stick around when he clearly doesn't want to be there works
to Russell's advantage, plus he's relatively loyal. But it's
hard to tell who Russell would want out between Russell and Ashley.
With respect to alleged spoilers, missyae has
two, possibly three, stories:
(1) missyae 10/4/09
12:45 a.m. "The
next player that will be booted from Foa Foa when they
go back to Tribal will be Ashley Trianer."
(2)
missyae 10/8/09
2:43 a.m. (see also the reply, three posts down) "Okay
the way I am told the events happen is after Yasmin is
voted out this week - Russell Swan goes down during a
challenge - then Ashley is voted out for Foa Foa."
Clearly, both
can't be true. When we pointed out
that the second story doesn't make sense, since EW (reasonably)
explicitly states that the next (and last) medical evacuation
takes place in Ep6, not Ep5, he responded with:
(3) missyae 10/8/09
4:01 p.m. "When Russell goes down in the challenge - Foa
Foa had a lead and thought they had it won. BOTH tribes go
to Tribal Council and sit and talk with Jeff and NOBODY is
voted out."
This actually makes even less sense - unless
they do something crazy and do double boots in the jury phase
(which has never been done, and would require two votes at
tribal council, and so is highly unlikely), the show needs
to shed three people in the next two episodes, not just one
(or two), in order to have the final five in the finale on
Sunday, December 13 (as the CBS Fantasy
rules state).
So something is still amiss. A fourth story
emerged later (just prior to Ep4):
(4) missyae 10/8/09 5:28 p.m.
"Yasmin is tonight. After that the next person to be voted
out when Foa Foa goes to Tribal is Ashley. Russell S is the
player to go down in the challenge everyone is talking about.
He is the medivac. After he leaves they have both tribes
meet at Tribal and I was told it was very boring and they
knew nobody was leaving so it was a waste of time. But anyway
- when that happens - nobody is voted out at that Tribal.
They merge at 8 Galu and 4 Foa Foa."
Note that there's now a mystery Foa Foa
person disappearing somewhere in the next two episodes (Alien
abduction? The Rapture?), since Ashley is the only one mentioned
being booted, and Foa Foa currently has six members. Although
at least the Ashley-Russell S. order now makes sense. Small
victories.
But there are also some (admittedly vague)
contradictory notes concerning Ashley's allegedly imminent departure,
Redmond at
Sucks reports a rumor that both alternates (Ashley and Erik)
"went far." True, two weeks into the show might be construed
as reasonably far. Hard to say.
Final call: There's not really anything solid
to argue against Ashley going this week. If, as the CBS press
release claims, Russell H is scrambling to regain control, it
would make sense that he re-focus on his last target, Ashley.
So, barring some last minute evidence to the contrary, we'll
side with missyae's most recent version of events this week.
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