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True Dork Times Survivor 19: Samoa spoilers
Episode 2: "Taking Candy from a Baby" Filmed: June 14-16, 2009
Airdate: September 24, 2009
Episode 2: RC/IC | HII | Boot | Summary | Future challenges
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Survivor: Samoa episode 2 detailed boot spoilers/ speculation
snuffer   As with Ep1, there are CBS-provided shots of an Ep3 challenge, in which Ashley, Monica and Kelly are visible. So those people should all be safe in Ep2.

    Complete re-do update: We previously assumed Galu was headed to Tribal because Yasmin was at Foa Foa camp, but the shot of Shannon with the reward equipment - at right - trumps that, thanks to VolcanicGlass.

   So, moving on: Who at Foa Foa is most at risk? Ashley (see above) and Russell H. (the show's all about him so far, and he's on S20) both appear to be safe. From Probst's comments, so do Jaison and Ben, who appear to stick around a while. That leaves pretty much everyone else. Most at risk based on Ep1 would appear to be Natalie and Betsy, possibly Mike, maybe Liz.

- Natalie: Russell's stated plan with his "dumb-ass girl alliance" was to make secret F2 alliances with Ashley, Natalie and Marisa, which he would apparently break as soon as anyone starts to waver (Marisa). Since Ashley's safe and Marisa is gone, that leaves Natalie, who was last seen being warned by Betsy not to trust Russell. Which is what got Marisa booted. So Natalie is a possibility to follow in Marisa's footsteps.

- Betsy: Did not vote with the tribe on the Marisa boot, which is not a good move. While it's too soon to assess how she does in physical challenges, there's no hiding she's the oldest woman on the tribe. If culling the "weak" remains the mantra, she could go.

- Mike: Editing tricks aside, seemed more convinced than anyone else on his tribe (or Jeff Probst) that he was not a physical liability. On the other hand, even though they were voting out the weak in Ep1, received not a single vote. Although Mike seemed to think Marisa started a "plot against me," and Mick and Natalie both apparently promised not to vote for him.

- Liz: Pre-Ep1 airing interview is the only reason to doubt her longevity. She seems to be reasonably integrated into the tribe, even high-fiving Ben in the PIP promo, despite not having an "alliance" with Russell that was named in Ep1. Update: But we think those appearances can be deceiving.

Final call, pre-Ep2: You could make a plausible case for either Liz or Natalie (or Mike). Natalie is either doomed by her inklings of doubt in Ep1, or is being groomed to join Mick and Betsy's anti-Russell/Ben alliance. Liz, on the other hand, didn't really factor into the Russell storyline at all, but she was highlighted in the Ep1 IC losing shot, following Probst's dismissal (see below).

So we'll go with
Liz as the Ep2 bootee. (And we'd predict Mike would be the next person to leave Foa Foa). We don't really see a reason to highlight both Liz and Mike after the Ep1 IC (along with Marisa), since neither received a vote at the Ep1 tribal council. Mike did appear to be in danger of getting votes, but apparently worked his way out of it. So rather, we think it's, in the words of Kent Brockman, "A chilling vision of things to come."

Sequence at the end of the Ep1 IC: click to view larger picture
probst, post-Ep1 ic
Probst: "Foa Foa, I got nothing for ya, except a date with me tonight at Tribal Council..."
marisa, post-ep1 IC
Probst: "...where one of you..."
liz, post-ep1 IC
Probst: "...will be..."
mike, post-ep1 IC
Probst: "...the first person voted out of this game."

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