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| Survivor:
Samoa episode 12 final 8 boot spoilers/ speculation |
 From
the web promo, it's clear there are two tribal councils this
week, each preceded by an immunity challenge. As
has been spoiled by SurvivorsUnite and missyae,
the final three appear to be Natalie, Russell H. and Mick.
And we've heard the fourth and fifth spots are taken by Brett
and Jaison, respectively. That leaves Dave, Monica and Shambo
for the first boot of the episode, at final 8.
Based on
Jaison's CBS site video,
"Jaison's First Win," the
plan up until the Ep11 IC was to boot Dave,
and if he won, then
Monica. It's unclear which of the two would
be the immediate target following John's boot, but it seems
plausible that this could be the (first) Ep12 plan again. (Also,
Jaison knows Russell has the hidden idol again, despite Russell's
claim in Ep11 that only John knew).
But this would be an excellent time to boot Shambo,
and remove the threat of her flipping back to Galu, as Jaison
warned in Ep11. Dave and Monica could probably be convinced
to vote against her, and would probably be enthusiastic to see
her leave before them. And doing so would leave four Foa Foas
versus three Galus. Probably Russell's easiest move, if there's
any hint Shambo might be wavering.
 Update: As
for the "Master manipulator Russell pulls the boldest move
ever at a tribal council," as the ads claim, he still has
the hidden immunity idol (and is shown fondling it in camp in
the ads, at right).
If he could manage to win an IC (no luck so far), he could hand
off the (visible) necklace and brag that nobody's going to vote
for him anyway, he doesn't need it, then play the hidden one
after the vote. That seems a little obvious for a guy who's
already found two idols that people know about, but maybe the
remaining contestants are sufficiently gullible to fall for
it. Alternatively, he could also hand the hidden idol off to
the actual IC winner, and have them hand him the IC necklace
to draw votes.
But
this might best fit for the second (F7) boot of the episode,
since they appear to be rushing past the first one to get to
it.
Final update: We thought for a while that Russell's
idol-flashing scene above might be coupled with his private
discussion with Dave ("Anything that keeps me here another day
sounds pretty good"). That would mesh nicely with Russell's
Ep11 gloating that whenever he shows someone the idol, they
have to get booted, and would explain why Dave's seen only once
in the Ep12 ad footage. But Russell's buff is in a completely
different position above than in his Dave talk, so they're probably
at different times. Still, we'll
go with the obvious, and guess that "Damage Control" means getting
Shambo back on board by booting her chosen victim (Dave)
first (as was suggested by both Oowatanite and
MidnightPrince69 at
Sucks).
Also, not that it helps with placement necessarily, but missyae said
this about the upcoming episode: "Well you would think Dave would be wiser
than he is next week. Why, why, why, would you go after Russell right now. You
know he probably has the idol, you know his Foas have been very tight, why take
on Russell? The smarter move to last longer would have been to join Russell."
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