Survivor: Guatemala Spoilers
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Episode 4: "To Betray or Not to Betray" Filmed: July 5-6 (?), 2005
Airdate: October 6, 2005
Episode 4 vidcap gallery: Click here (newest sets below)
Ep4 20-sec TV ad vidcaps

Aired 10/2/05
Ep4 10-sec NFL tv ad vidcaps

Aired 10/2/05
Episode description
Video: Watch the CBS web promo. (Uploaded 9/30/05)
CBS: "- In an unexpected twist, members of the two tribes are shuffled.
- While one Survivor dangles his feet in the crocodile-infested waters, something nibbles on his toes.
- A very close Immunity Challenge leads into a tense Tribal Council that could end with a tie or a major betrayal."
Other vidcaps: Post-Ep3 TV preview (9/29) | Ep4 web promo (9/30) | Ep4 5-sec NFL ad (10/2) | Ep4 10-sec NFL ad (10/2) | Ep4 20-sec TV ad (10/2) |
Parts of this challenge were shown in the post-Ep3 TV preview, where it was edited to suggest the switch occurs here. We originally thought (because of the pic below of Rafe at the IC, still in a blue buff) that the switch occurred before the IC. But upon closer inspection, there's a halo of yellow around Rafe's collar, so like the shot of Jamie, Rafe's buff color has just been altered. With no evidence of the pre-switch tribes as late as the IC, then, we'll suggest that it's more likely to occur at, after, or in the place of the RC. This does fit with the CBS press release: "Nakum and Yaxha come together for a forum that reveals the state of their tribes. In an unexpected twist, the two tribes are switched around."

Is there a challenge as well? It's not clear. The Survivors have tribal color-coded tablets. Perhaps the "challenge" is a trick to get them to switch tribes. We initially thought the shots of Margaret and Judd looking unhappy (bottom row, below) might indicate a contact-from-home-type reward, but we'll concede we can't see how that fits with a tribal swap. Plus they've only been gone for two weeks (eight days in the game).
REWARD CHALLENGE/switch vidcaps - Click thumbnails to expand
brian-rc bj-rc yaxha-rc danni margaret
margaret-reward judd-reward      

Okay, so the big question is: Who gets switched? The web promo shows us a lot (relevant caps below). Some are clear: Rafe is visible in a yellow canoe that says "Nakum" on the side. None too subtle. In the other canoe, which appears to be blue, Blake is present. So Blake and Rafe switch teams (biancaxxx also saw this, and posted it at MeSS). Does Steph too? Yep, she's shown with a yellow buff around her waist. And then there's Jamie... shown in the web promo with what appears to be a blue buff on his head. But as the video moves, some of the blue slips onto his forehead, and some yellow peeks out on the other side. Whoops!

Who gets switched to Yaxha? Well, for the possibility of a tie, there must be 4 ex-Nakums there (plus, the shot of the beach in the IC could be used to argue Yaxha is sitting someone out). So in addition to Blake, we think we hear Danni's voice directly asking Gary (at Yaxha camp) about his ("No! I swear!") NFL career. Danni's also featured in the RC shots (as is Jamie), which are usually clues for who's switched. For the other two, then, we'd guess Margaret and Judd, who are all over the promos. But there's no real evidence for or against there.

As for the IC, it looks very similar to the Ep1 IC, since racing canoes to retrieve objects from the lake appears to be involved. There are three color-coded hanging paddles/clubs (perhaps these are maquahuitls?) visible on the lake. Once back on land, the objects picked up on the lake are thrown (Jamie and Steph are shown here). Who wins? Nakum has a slight lead in the canoe race back to the beach. The two people shown in the throwing stage are both (now) on Nakum, as well. Looks good for Nakum. Also, we see Gary back at Yaxha camp, getting the third degree about his football days, and a slightly drawling woman (who is not Amy, Steph or Lydia) asking him about it. So we're guessing Yaxha loses, yet again. This action likely takes place post-switch and pre-IC, but if that's the only drama SEG can dredge up to distract from the boot, we'll guess that we see Yaxha revisit this theme when they return to camp, sans idol.

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE vidcaps - Click thumbnails to expand
ic - probst ic ic ic ic
jamie-nakum ic jamie-nakum ic steph-nakum ic steph-nakum ic rafe

Clearly, our attempts to follow previously-useful patterns of CBS editing to find the bootee the last two weeks have been spectacularly bad. So we'll try something new this time.

There's one set of clues that's worked at times last season, and seems to still work this season, at least so far. While it probably won't work again, now that we're pointing out, it should at least be good for this episode: Simply, who is shown when Probst is speaking at the end of tribal council is important. And what he says when they're shown is important too. For the Ep3 boot, Brianna was the last person shown at the Ep2 Tribal Council, as Probst gave his parting words ("didn't see it coming"). The three people below all had significant edits at previous TCs, and all end up on Yaxha this week:

- Strong guy switched to a new tribe.
- Still looked weak during the Ep3 IC.
- Last person shown (as Probst said "without tearing yourselves apart") in the Ep1 tribal council.
- Tip to TDT: Blake's health continues to suffer in upcoming episode(s).
- Xbalanque: Blake probably gone in Ep4.

brian- Last person shown at Ep3 Tribal Council (Probst: "We'll see how it plays out").
- Pressure may be on him to vote out Gary.

- Ankle injury in Ep3. Can't keep it up forever.
- At last tribal council, Probst said "vote off the weak" (shot of Amy), then "and keep the strong" (shot of Lydia). Not a good sign for Amy.

Update: We now think Blake probably goes next episode (Ep.5), and not this week. That leaves poor, head-spinning Brian as the primary target (TC editing-wise, anyway). Brownroach posted a fine theory at Blows that sums up about what we envisioned for a Brian boot (essentially, he tries to cut a deal with Danni/ex-Nakums to boot Gary, and gets screwed when they use his overtures against him, to boot Brian instead). Sounds about right.

Have some info we missed? We'll take it at: